저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
요약 보기
잭슨홀 연준 발언(하커·불러드) 이후 S&P500이 4주간 강한 반등을 보이며 4,200 돌파. 거래량이 약해 확신이 낮다고 평가하며 단기 헤지를 걸었다고 함. 옵션 콜 거래 급증, 알고 플랫폼상 강세 흐름 언급. 금요일 종가(4,200 근처) 유지 여부를 핵심 관찰 포인트로 제시. 장기적으로 S&P500 4,500 가능성 언급하나 '반응하되 예측하지 말자'는 입장.
다듬은 글
hello youtube the big one appears like it's here it looks like we are on track to go dramatically higher or to start a curl if this is the true move there are some warnings today notably from fed officials and today we're going to try to decipher exactly what this means and where we could go from here i was looking for roughly 420 close on friday uh we can note that we're closing here at 419.43 um i don't know what to make of this we definitely got inside the gap zone here and i'm not sure whether or not this is too much because the volume right here is telling us that it's a little bit muted or if these bulls are just getting enthusiastic and trying to squeeze the bears out so uh looking here to a data point from today we note that jackson hole is kicking off and we heard a lot from fed officials the ones i want to focus on are going to be harker and james bullard why because these are the hawks and when they talk i think it's really important for us to understand that what we're largely noticing is that we're seeing the doves come towards the middle and the hawks come towards the middle which means that whatever jerome says tomorrow i think is going to strike a balance between both sides so if we look to you what tarker said who was generally a hawk he's told us that i want to see next inflation reading before deciding on september what does that mean it means he's data dependent that would be interpreted as dovish if jerome powell said that and that's i think it's part of the reason why we squeezed so high today that was really what kicked us off at about eight o'clock this morning it really drove the market up i think this is actually at 10 a.m uh eastern harker 50 would still be a substantial move ah that's interesting too why uh 50 is still a lot in the context of history but it's less than the 75 we were looking at yesterday looking here as well fed harker i'd like to see us get to above 3.4 and then perhaps sit for a while that's what we talked about yesterday too we talked about going up and then flatlining so going up and then flatlining that is the big question and there's actually a chart that i don't have quite up here but we know that the fed fed fund futures rate right now shows that we're going to be increasing into 2022 or the end of the year and then decreasing after that so what harker is saying here is that actually don't move so fast maybe we're going to pause and what does this mean it means that goldman sachs appears like they're right this is what we talked about yesterday so uh all the way up here and we end the year in 2022 at roughly 3.25 to 3.4 percent where does that 3.4 come from well it's almost the difference between 3.25 and 3.5 so this looks like hawker is right there in team we need to just do what is already baked in then we got james bolard after rates uh get to a get above 3.75 to 4 not quite sure what's next what does that mean there is room for interpretation and that's really notable what's also really notable is that i shared this on twitter and i put it on the community post and i thank you so much for the people who engaged we note here that i was looking for my psychology chart line chart to close the week out at 4 20 so that we can continue our max out to go higher before ultimately failing into next year so we're not going to focus on the bare side for now we're just going to focus on the bull side so if you have a look here at our line chart all it means is that all this cares about because it's a weekly closing price is the closing price on friday if we look here at a line chart it kind of looks like we have a cup and handle forming and it looks like all systems are go um what i don't love about today though is that there are i'm sorry there's not a lot of volume and uh it looks like i don't know that it is consensus that we're going to be seeing a dovish tone from jerome tomorrow what i don't love is that we saw muted volume on a huge upswing so we note that we gapped to yesterday's high uh we opened here today at four one five point two four we know when our last two daily tops are four went five point four two and four one five point eleven all that means is that we pretty much gapped up to uh the highs of the day from the last two days we slightly back tested and then we punched it and this punch was really impressive because they really went for it today there was a lot of indecision in the morning meaning that uh where are we here um here we go from today so right there's the 50 minute candle which was a gap in flush and then there's the rip there's the dip and there's the rip that volume into the clothes is truly incredible that is a big volume close in the last five minutes i believe we traded uh 5 million shares that's a million shares per minute that is a lot what's also really notable is the level that we got to on the e-mini futures so the reason why i want to point that out is because uh let me go here to a chart that's a little bit more relevant because we blew through 4 200.
oh my goodness yeah that's right today we made it to uh 42.02 75. so i'm not sure if this is a stop-loss hunt for the bears or if this is just price discovery before we have the true move tomorrow what i would have personally much preferred to have conviction in this move for tomorrow i kind of think this is a little bit too much for where we're at if we would have closed it roughly 416-417 i would feel a lot more confident going into tomorrow which is part of the reason why i put on a small hedge just for tomorrow what i'm meaning is that i'm putting on short-term insurance because i don't like how much we move without the volume once we got inside the gap zone we pretty much went straight to 420.
so as we look towards tomorrow uh what i want to have a look at here uh is going to be the options chain because this generally provides clues not guarantees but clues and uh we saw a lot of risk assets actually catch a really nice bid today so we got 417 down here to 414 all smoked every single one of them over here on the call side these pretty much all got minted we note that we had the 415 to 420 call spread and uh that's why i was looking for that 420 target as well we have open interest roughly 30 000 in both and this is gushing in volume hundreds of thousands at every strike that is huge um the problem is that there's not a lot of continuation beyond uh just uh just just friday so we're not seeing a lot of continuation further and one more thing i want to point out here just because i think that this might actually provide a little bit of insight is looking here to our algo platform which i've been showing lately we look here at uh week to date and we note that we have been going sorry our put call ratio here is roughly uh 1.26 which means which means that uh 6 56 of uh flow has been bearish 44 has been bullish however if we now change those to just looking at today what it shows us is that it's notably ticking bullish right whoa 70 30 that's right these bulls showed up and that could explain part of the move that we're going higher there's a lot of call activity which is squeezing the charts up so who was right the bulls or the bears and if you're part of our group i would really encourage you to click on the stocks tab because oh my goodness are there alerts today there are hundreds that's right hundreds of high time frame alerts which tell us that if we're gonna be getting a move that could be the big one where where we put in nike swoosh and go dramatically higher as high as where 450 not tomorrow not next week but maybe over the course of the next couple of weeks the next couple of months what i want to look at next is going to be qqq and the reason why the reason why we want to look at qqq is because it reclaimed a key area today of uh 318.52 that 318.52 area comes from are relatively low going back to february and march this is the corresponding level for spy at 410.64 so the fact that it also opened up right around the uh monday tuesday sorry what day is it today thursday uh the tuesday wednesday high back tested slightly and then rocked it up wow we know the tesla had a stock split today ron baron was talking about uh how the stock's going to go three to five hundred percent higher in the next five to ten years and it looks like it did provide some fuel to these bulls why uh we note that we get uh pretty much everything oh actually that's what feels red okay i don't actually notice that uh nvidia gap down pumped up on earnings and uh it looks like there is some broad-based risk appetite so not to belabor um the uh the uh the charts here what i want to do next is to uh what chart am i looking at here this one here all right so now we're going to go to weekly charts because um again i've already mentioned where i thought we were going to close in terms of the psychology chart now what we want to look at is what do these weekly charts look like because we all know the most important price is going to be four o'clock on friday and with uh cpi sorry pce not cpi so pce comes out at 8 30 a.m tomorrow um it's gonna be definitely a clue and then jerome is either gonna be the punisher or he's gonna be the angel is he a friend or a foe drop me a comment and let me know what you think and again looking back here to spy we note that we got that 420 uh sorry uh four 10.64 area held we touched down roughly 80 cents um to form that higher level so this still looks like an inverse head and shoulders there's still a gap on the chart we got four two one twenty one and we got a high of four one nine five six roughly two dollar gap here so i'll be paying very close attention to this going into friday and uh i think that the big one's gonna come but what i really want to see is volume really come in to confirm the move volume in the last five minutes is nice we need to see weekly volume that is increasing not decreasing otherwise at some point resistance will be found or this is going to be a barefield rally and like i mentioned for the last couple of days i'm really not sure where we're going to go so i'm on team uh let's react inside a team predict and when we look here to qqq it looks very similar we have our falling wedge we broke out but the volume is my primary concern right now so i think that tomorrow we're going to get some fireworks and uh whether it's the bulls or the bears what you're going to be crying dragon tears i'm not entirely sure but as a reminder we do do a friday stream every single friday for the final hour so if you want to tune in with us and see whether or not we're going to hold that psychology chart whether we're going to go up or down you can tune into our friday stream which is scheduled here on the channel for one sorry for three o'clock eastern or one p.m uh well noon pacific uh one mountain time i'm just sorry i'm getting a little bit messed up here because of the time so for the final hour come and tune in with us otherwise i encourage you to watch the video queue up here in a moment otherwise i wish you all the best of luck and please remember we should try to be on team react not team predict with that said i wish you all the best of luck into the end of the week and i look forward to seeing you tomorrow thank you
Comments 0