저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 시프는 금 가격이 2011년 고점(약 1900달러)을 돌파해 이번 상승장의 새 국면에서 더 크게 오를 것이라고 주장했다. 주식시장과 통화 가치에 대한 견해: 다우지수가 사상 최고치여도 금으로 환산하면 2~3배 낮은 수준이므로 주식이 오른 것이 아니라 달러 가치가 떨어지고 있다고 봤다. 금리와 연준 전망: 시장이 기대했던 금리 인상은 실현되지 않을 것이며 연준의 긴축 사이클은 끝났다고 주장했다. 다음 움직임은 금리 인하이고 마이너스 금리까지 갈 수 있다고 했다. 양적완화(QE4) 전망: QE4는 QE1·2·3을 합친 것보다 클 것이라고 예상했다. 금 가격 전망: 2011년 고점 재시험을 넘어 훨씬 높은 가격대로 갈 것으로 보며, 이번 해 안에는 어렵지만 현 사이클 안에서 새 상승 국면이 시작됐다고 봤다. 2000년 이후 금 장기 강세장의 연장선이다. 미국 대선 전망: 힐러리 클린턴은 나쁜 정책을 이어갈 것이라 비판했다. 트럼프에 대해서는 좋은 대통령이 될 수도 나쁜 대통령이 될 수도 있다며 유보적이었고, 게리 존슨이 자신의 철학에 가장 가깝다고 말했다. 리스크 조건: 정치 결과와 무관하게 과거 실책의 대가를 치르는 '심판의 날'이 올 것이며, 그때 미국 달러는 크게 약세가 되고 금 가격은 크게 오를 것이라고 주장했다. 출연자 전망 요약: 금은 강세, 달러는 약세, 금리는 하락 방향이라는 입장이 일관되게 유지됐다.
다듬은 글
he just came off a hot debate uh the big bull versus bear debate here at Freedom Fast Peter shift thanks for joining us on kcko news well thanks for having me back so a lot of Divergent opinions at the debate Peter uh let's get your thoughts on how you see the markets right now well remember I I did the same panel last year and you know I wasn't bearish in that believe the US Stock Market would go way down because I believe the Federal Reserve would prevent that from happening by you know keeping interest rates low and by printing a lot of money and that's really what's been happening I mean the market hasn't really gone up very much but it hasn't gone down but meanwhile look what's happened to the price of gold the point I was trying to make is that even though the Dow is at a new high today it's at what a two or threee low if you price it in real money which is gold so stocks are not going up the value of money is going down and gold proves that all right well you're well-known gold uh bowl and bug I guess um did you hear anything on the bearish side of the camp that has made you reassess your bullish calls for gold Oh you mean bearish on gold yes I mean no in fact none of the Bulls on the stock market were necessarily bearish on gold in fact I think they concede the point that with interest rates at zero and you know the the world to wash and money right it's very hard to Envision gold prices going significantly lower what hurt gold up until this year was the widespread consensus that interest rates were headed a lot higher that the Fed was going to normalize monetary policy and that its balance sheet was going to shrink that the Federal Reserve was actually going to become a seller of us treasuries now I've known all along that that wasn't going to happen in fact the FED hasn't sold the treasury at all the balance sheet continues to grow as they reinvest all of their uh interest and and maturing principle but I believe now people are starting to realize that all the anticipated rate hikes are never going to materialized that the fed's tightening cycle is already over the next move for the FED is to cut rates not to raise them again I think we might actually go negative this time and I think qe4 is going to be bigger than qe1 2 and three combined and so I think gold is not only going to retest the highs from 2011 when it was close to 1900 but it's going to surpass those highs and move into much higher territory within this year or what time FR well probably not within this calendar year you've only got about 6 months left but certainly in this cycle I think this is a new leg of the gold bull market I mean Gold's been in a secular bull market since 2 1999 2000 we had a cyclical bare Market that I believe ended when the FED hiked rates in December and now we have the new leg of this bull market which I think potentially could be an even bigger leg than the first leg which saw gold go from sub 300 to close to 2000 so if this leg is bigger than that you can just imagine how high the price might go and Peter we saw the post brexit bump that gold got um obviously a strong message coming there a strong message coming from the US election this year uh people obviously want change uh how do you see the US election playing out well you know they want change but they rarely get it right they they voted for Barack Obama because they want to change and they just got more of the same clearly the front runner is Hillary Clinton which is more of the same horrible policies that have gotten us to the point where people want change but even the Democrats want change that's why a lot of them supported Bernie Sanders and now they're stuck with Hillary Clinton now a lot of the Republicans are expressing their anger by embracing Donald Trump the question is what kind of change is Trump actually going to deliver I have my reservations I'm hopeful that maybe he'll actually do some of the things that need to be done I think we have a shot at that uh we have no shot of Hillary Clinton doing that but I think if people really want change that makes sense they might support Gary Johnson who has the libertarian party nomination who really Embraces uh more of the philosophy that I stand for but I think either way doesn't really matter what we get we still have a a tremendous a price that needs to be paid for the mistakes of the past even if we correct those mistakes in the future we still are going to have a Day of Reckoning and that Day of Reckoning is going to evolve a much lower US dollar and a much higher gold price all right who do you think would be best for the economy I mean other than Gary Johnson so Gary Johnson well Gary Johnson is is the best of the three candidates uh but between Hillary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump I would take my chances on Trump because Trump could be a great president or he might be an awful president Hillary Clinton is going to be an awful president so you might as well take a chance on Donald Trump a lot of the things that he says I agree with some of the things I don't but I don't even know if Donald Trump agrees with some of the things he's saying because he may just be saying things because it's good politics but a president Trump may be very different than a candidate Peter ship thanks so much for stopping by and have a great end of conference thank you oh my pleasure thanks for having me on again absolutely and thanks for watching we'll have a lot more coverage here from Freedom Fest so be sure to stay tuned to kgo.com
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