저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 인플레이션·버블 관련 발언을 소개하며 장기 투자 원칙을 강조하는 영상. 금리 인상과 물가 상황: 2022년 9월 기준 S&P500 연초 대비 20% 하락, 미국 CPI 전년比 8.3%, 근원 인플레이션 8월 0.6% 상승으로 하락 추세 깨짐. 연준 0.75%p 인상 발표. 멍거의 1970년대 비교: 볼커 연준의 20% 금리 인상과 같은 강력한 긴축이 현 정치 환경에서는 어려울 수 있어 스태그플레이션 위험 제기. 레이 달리오도 같은 우려 인용. 투자 전략: 인플레 시기에는 현금도 주식도 어려우므로 최선의 소수 우량주 선택이 중요. 멍거 포트폴리오(버크셔, 코스트코, 중국주, 데일리저널, 아파트) 소개. 분산보다 소수 우량 투자 강조. 단기 매매 경계: 주식시장이 도박장처럼 변질되었다는 멍거 발언 소개, 단기 차익에 대한 과세 필요성 언급. 50% 하락을 견디는 장기 보유 태도 강조. 가치투자 원칙: 벤저민 그레이엄식 가치투자는 시대를 불문하고 유효하다는 결론. 영상 후반부는 스폰서(셰어사이트) 광고.
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you mentioned we're in a big bubble can you elaborate on that and how is this likely to play out well I think eventually they'll be considerable trouble because of The Wretched access that's the way it's usually worked in the past but when it's going to come and how bad it will be I can't tell you that was Charlie Munger back in February 2022 at the Daily Journal shareholder meeting he certainly picked it didn't he and it looks like he didn't have to wait too long for the considerable trouble to begin year-to-date the S P 500 is down 20 as interest rates continue to rise in fact just a few weeks ago we got the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which showed that in the last 12 months the Consumer Price Index is up 8.3 percent with a seasonally adjusted month-over-month increase of 0.1 percent and while that doesn't sound like a lot think about this that's a 0.1 increase month over month after factoring in the whopping 10.6 drop in gasoline and 5.9 drop in fuel oil that's telling in fact when we look at core inflation which strips out and energy and food that index Rose 0.6 in August breaking the downtrend we'd seen since March so all in all despite the headline rate continuing its decline the underlying core inflation data definitely put a damper on everybody's hopes that this inflationary period is on the way out and definitely puts to bed the idea that interest rate hikes could have been relaxed in fact on that topic it was just a few days ago that we saw Jerome Powell announce yet another 0.75 interest rate hike also known as the 75 basis point rate hike this is what he had to say during the press conference today the fomc raised its policy interest rate by three quarters of a percentage point and we anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate we are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to two percent restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy yeah that doesn't sound like things are going to change anytime soon in fact it sounds like we could be in for some interest rate paying over the next year or two so with that reality so joyfully presented by Jerome Powell in this video I want to hone in on what you as an investor should expect during an inflationary period with some help from our good friend Charlie Munger the reason Charlie Munger is such a good person to listen to on a topic like this is well because he's 98 years old so he's seen the brutal inflation of the 70s he's seen the non-existent inflation through the 60s and heck he was even alive during the Great U.S deflation that occurred from 1930 to 1933 fair to say he's seen it all but for sure the last comparable period to what we're seeing today is definitely the 1970s and worryingly Charlie is actually nervous that what we're in right now could end up being worse than what went on before Paul volcker came in and reset the system take a listen Steve caspel writes in on this same subject he says what are your current thoughts on the inflationary environment and please compare and contrast it to the 1970s when poker after the 70s took the primary to 20 percent and the government was paying 15 on its government bonds that was a horrible recession lasted a long time caught with a lot of agony and I certainly hope we're not going there again conditions that allowed volcker to do that without an interference from the politicians were very unusual 2020 hindsight it was a good thing that he did it I would not predict that our modern politicians will be as willing to permit a new Volker to get that tough with the economy and bring on that kind of a recession so I think the new troubles are likely to be different from the old troubles you may wish you had you had a vulgar style recession instead of what you're going to get the troubles that come to us could be worse than what Volker was dealing with I find that's like very interesting reason being I kind of agree now I'm not going to pretend I'm some political expert because believe me I'm definitely not that but I think one thing we've all noticed about politics lately is that well everyone has a pretty strong opinion and these days literally everything political gets seriously scrutinized so with political tension so high yet the chair of the Federal Reserve being a position selected by the president you could make the argument that it's quite unlikely that anyone that so much has read a book by Paul volcker will be put in the top spot Paul volcker is of course the chair of the Federal Reserve that raised rates decisively to 20 percent to break the great inflationary period of the 1970s he did throw America into a painful recession by doing so but ultimately his decisiveness did reign in the inflation rate but today with recessions and stock market crashes and economic indicators being so politicized you could definitely argue that the political willpower to act decisively and stop inflation could be absent as they fear the political side effects of deliberately causing a recession and what that would all lead to is stagflation which is what Ray dalio thinks will get which is a sustained period of inflation remaining higher but economic conditions remaining poor so very interesting perspective from Charlie Munger and hopefully not one we see play out this time round conventional economic theory argues that excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus over the last two years years has triggered the highest inflation in 40 years do you broadly agree with this thesis and more importantly do you think there will be a high economic price to pay as the FED attempts to bring inflation back under control we've done something pretty extreme and we don't know how bad the troubles will be here whether we're going to be like Japan or something a lot worse what makes life interesting is we don't know it's going to work out I think we do know we're flirting with serious trouble think of how seductive it is you have a bunch of interest-bearing debts and you pay them off with checking accounts which you're no longer paying interest think of how seductive that is for a bunch of legislators you get rid of the interest payments of the money supply goes up it seems like heaven when things get that seductive they're likely to be overused and of course that's exactly what's happened covet happened the FED printed trillions of dollars that kicked inflation into overdrive and now we have to deal with the consequences ultimately the FED has to raise rates and when you raise rates quickly that frequently inhibits economic activity enough to cause a recession but with that said let's now turn our Focus to how to best handle these economic periods as an investor and let's be real here inflationary periods where interest rates are rising steeply are really tough for investors staying in cash sucks as inflation erodes the value of your dollars but being invested also sucks because the Federal Reserve puts the clamps on consumer spending and businesses ability to borrow and service debt so a lot of companies really struggle I mean the safety of Treasury bonds could be an option but again that's nothing really to write home about so what do we do how will this all play out and what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities it may be that you have to choose the least bad of a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco stock Chinese stocks a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification you're lucky if you've got four good asses kids if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer it's it's very few people can have enough brains to get 20 good Investments I really think that's a great bit of wisdom from Charlie sometimes you just have to choose the least bad option I like this because it's a callback to Warren Buffett's rule number one of investing which is don't lose money sometimes market conditions are just not in your favor and investing can be difficult so in these times it's almost worth accepting that we might not hit any home runs so we shouldn't try and force it but what we can do is stay rational think long term as the questioner says stay invested in high quality equities and think beyond the next one to two years and I like Charlie's note to remember that you don't need to be buying and selling a million stocks all the time all you need to do is find like the four or five golden opportunities over your whole investing career and just stick with the long-term mindset and over the long run you'll do just fine in the short term you know who knows you might cop an inflationary period and lose 30 during a recession but as Charlie said the manga Zone Berkshire Costco collection of Chinese equities through lilu Daily Journal stock and some apartment houses is it perfect no in hindsight could you have made some epic trades and have done a lot better of course you could have but for Charlie it's a collection of high quality Investments that have proven reliable over a long period of time and it's good enough for him I think nowadays with copious amounts of stock market coverage in the media and so many publicly accessible statistics and numerous Brokers trying to encourage trading activity all the time most people really do feel like they always need to be doing something in the market this is something that Charlie has spoken out about a few times already and I think particularly at times like this it can be beneficial to just take a step back and review your portfolio with that classic long-term 10-year mindset we have a stock market which some people use like a gambling parlor and the transactions are the people who love the gambling parlor aspect of the business and those who want to make long-term Investments to take care of their old age and so forth I mean he model that in one market and it goes out of control because the stock market becomes an ideal gambling parlor activity if I were the dictator of the world I would have some kind of a tax on short-term gains that made the stock market very much less liquid and drove out this this marriage of gambling parlor and legitimate Capital development of the country it's not a good marriage and I think we need a divorce what we're getting is wretched access and danger for the country and everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people get drunk in the party they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences this is serious stuff but a lot of people like up drunken brawl so far those are the people that are winning and a lot of people are making money out of our brawl overall I think this highlights that we need to make sure we're not the ones falling into the Trap of making rash decisions because we feel like we need to be doing something have a listen to this clip that Charlie delivered with absolute savagery more than 10 years ago how worried are you by the declines in the share price of Berkshire Hathaway the difficulties this is the third time that Warren and I have seen our Holdings in Berkshire go down top tick to bottom tick by 50 I think it's the nature of long-term shareholding with the normal facility attitudes and in worldly outcomes and in markets that the long-term holder has is quoted value of his stock go down by say 50 percent in fact you can argue that if you're not willing to react with Equanimity to a market price decline of 50 percent two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get I think that's a great clip so all in all we just need to stay rational think long term and above all else avoid being sucked into a rash decision when the cods are against you if you hold a few high quality businesses with obvious modes that give them pricing power then feel free just to go back to sleep until this whole thing blows over or in the meantime just sit and watch waiting patiently in the wings for the short-term focused Market to present you with a fantastic long-term opportunity and remember this our old school Ben Graham valuation methods dead they'll never die you can't the idea of getting more value than you pay for that's what an investment is if you want to be successful you have to get more value than you pay for and so it's never going to be obsolete think of the past crazy booms and how they worked out the bubble in the late 20s so on and so on we've had this since the dawn of capitalism we've had crazy bubbles there's always something going wrong or a bubble forming but just remember rational long-term value investing never goes out of style anyway guys thanks for watching this video also big thanks to sharesight for sponsoring this video if you want an easy online solution to help you track everything you need for tax time from dividends to capital gains to currency fluctuations definitely check out the link in the description you can get four months free when you sign up to an annual plan honestly sharesight's an absolute Lifesaver trust me if you use share site your tax time as an investor is a lot easier so check it out if you're interested like to see more but that'll do me thanks very much for watching I'll see you guys next time
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