저자: TomLee · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 톰 리는 빅테크(FANG) 상승 여력이 크다며 대형 기술주 매수를 권하고, 금리 우려는 과도하다고 봄. 시장 반등 전망: 시장이 과매도 상태이며 5월 FOMC 등 이벤트 전후로 기술주 주도 랠리(8~10%) 가능성이 있다고 봄. FANG 투자 근거: 매출 둔화 우려에도 웹3.0과 전 세계 노동력 부족으로 기술 투자가 늘어나 상위 기업 매출이 향후 몇 년간 GDP보다 높게 성장할 것이라고 주장. 밸류에이션: 성장주가 저성장주보다 할인 거래되는 역전 현상이 나타났으며 정상화 시 FANG의 상승폭이 가장 클 것이라고 봄. 페이스북 약 11배, S&P500 약 16배 PER은 부담스럽지 않다고 봄. 금리: 10년물 약 3%에 이미 연준의 50bp 인상 여러 차례가 반영돼 있고, 채권 가격이 적정하다고 봄. 금리 3% 수준의 30배 PER 채권과 비교해 주식 멀티플 확장 여지가 있다고 봄. 시장 불확실성: 켄 그리핀의 '금융위기 이후 최고 수준의 불확실성' 발언에 대해 2020년 3월이 더 불확실했다고 반박하며, 금리 상승으로 금융여건이 긴축되어 연준 부담이 줄 수 있다고 봄. M&A 전망: 현금이 많은 기술 기업들이 낮은 주가에서 인수합병에 나설 수 있으며 향후 12개월간 기술주가 좋은 투자처라고 주장. 리스크: 발언 중 명시적 하방 시나리오는 제시되지 않았고 연준의 공격적 긴축 및 인플레이션 장기화가 불확실성 요인으로 언급됨. 출연자 전망: 대형 기술주(large cap tech)는 현재 거의 필승 투자처('almost a no-brainer')라고 강조하며 방어주에서 경기민감주로 이동하기보다 기술주 우위를 주장.
다듬은 글
earnings from big tech have done little to ease concerns that even more pain is ahead our next guest says the fang trade can still work he's tom lee he's fun strat's head of research joins me here at post nine and we'll get to that in a second it was a nice rebound by the way in the market led in part by that area but what do you make of that call top of our show today eric johnson says we're going to get a violent rally it's all going to happen in may and go 8 to 10 percent higher in the s p and it's going to be led probably by tech uh i mean the market is oversold and the timing makes sense because we've got a market nervous about fomc and the meetings this week and in a way i know you guys have said it the band-aid gets ripped off so could a relief rally happen 10 yeah i think it's very possible and i and i do think it would be led by tech so okay you make a a bullish call on fang at a time when some say the fang told bang acronyms dead and then you had all these companies report earnings and most of them reported slowing revenue growth so how can i not be concerned about what the trajectory for the business looks like uh it's there's uh there's slowing because we pulled for demand from covet but we still have web 3.0 um and all these companies are really going to be centered to that and then we have a labor shortage globally and the only way to cure shortages of labor is tech spend and fang are really the center piece of productivity so i think that the top line will surprise people for the next few years and again above gdp so in terms of all the air let's just say you know i know you've been bullish you admitted the other day that you were wrong you were too early in that call but if you do think that stocks are going up in the rank of where i want to be putting my money right now where does fang rank relative to some of the other areas be it defensives um eric was even positive on cyclicals yeah what do you think uh i i put fang at the top of the list because they've not ever won number one yes because they've derated we in our note today folk highlighted that faster growing companies today traded a discount to slow growing companies it's a complete inversion of what's logical and it only happened since november and i think as that normalizes that that means the fang could have the biggest moves interesting and how much do rates have to do with where they they go from here right that also is why this is a big week it's not just what the fed does in fact we pretty much know what they're gonna do it's what they say that matters most and where rates go we're at three percent on the tenure today that's right uh you know when it when i look at rates and i'm not a fixed income expert uh four fifty basis point hikes are already priced into the tenure and even in the two year and the five years so unless there's a hawkish surprise fundamentally that drives rates higher the bond market is sort of fairly priced and then the stock market then has to figure out what the right multiple is and and look at it a three percent tenure that's a 30 p e for a bond i don't think 16 p e for the s p or 11 times for facebook is demanding so i think stock multiples can actually expand this you know we've said that um milken's going on out in la and uh ken griffin was was speaking today and i mentioned some of his notes from earlier today uh talking about how powell's in such a very very you know very very difficult position is what he suggested that we're also at a time that he didn't use the word perilous and i'm sifting through my notes to find the exact word he used but nonetheless made the point that um you got to go back to the financial crisis to find another period where it was so uncertain in terms of everything that's going on not only here in the united states but but around the world where perhaps the the highest period of uncertainty is what he said since the great financial crisis what do you make of that uh agree with it disagree i might say march 2020 was more uncertain because people forget the fed uh stepped in but before march 2020 the market went into a huge panic we had a 37 decline in and many people expected the end of the world i think if there's any less than 2022 is that the market is prone to panic and panic quickly uh i think people are assuming the fed is going to break the economy or the markets but if inflationary suggests that they are yes or inflation can cool because financial you know in in a way rates have moved in a way that have tightened financial conditions so the markets are doing a lot of the work for the fed right now and that way we don't have to break the economy or the markets but again i agree it's very uncertain but march 2020 was scarier and yet people are more bearish today than they were in march well because in in march of 20 you had to figure that the cavalry was going to come to the rescue so to speak in which it did here you have you know you're pulling everything back it goes back to the argument of you know i i love people putting themselves into a pretzel trying to tell me all the reasons why it's okay to fight the fed on the way down but no nobody wants to step in the way on the way up that's just everything's great going straight up i yeah and i think there's a bit of some revisionist history because in march 2020 nobody said nobody even believed the fed could turn around a market in a free fall and i think today the argument is well the fed's not going to stop until the market breaks i think there's the same kind of panic but a different view of how the fed would react and again i think if financial conditions tighten the fed doesn't have to be as aggressive then it's a dovish development more importantly i think if you know these tech stocks are trading 10 11 times earnings i think you're gonna have an m a boom i mean cost of capital has gone up yet there's cash rich tech companies i just don't see how these aren't good investments for the next 12 months so is is this the moment then i want to because we've been discussing this for a couple of weeks now with you and others do i want to finally now move away from defensive stocks which have gotten expensive and then go back to cyclicals which are obviously more heavily impacted by fears of a slowing economy or this tech trade which has been terrible well i mean i already have like 10 omelets worth of egg on my face but uh i would say i can't see how anyone doesn't see great risk reward in owning fang right now at large cap tech i think is almost a no-brainer here almost a no-brainer wow all right well we'll see right that's the best part is you come back often we can have these conversations often we can see if it happened or not you either have omelette uh more omelette on your suit or not yeah i like eggs tom lee a fun strat joining us right here at post nine up next we're breaking
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