저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500 주간 봉에서 400 돌파 확인 후 407 저항 관건, 시장 전반 상승 추세 진단. 나스닥100(QQQ/트리플큐)은 294 돌파로 상승 여력, 다우는 횡보 삼각수렴, 러셀2000은 188 돌파, RSP/ARKK는 200일선 저항, 비트코인 상승 추세, 테슬라는 공매도 숏커버링 V자 반등 후 고변동성 경고, 엔비디아 192 돌파로 213 목표, 애플 146 돌파 시 150 목표. VIX 18.5로 저공포 강세장 신호 해석.
다듬은 글
in a world where everybody is bearish somebody has to ask the difficult questions are the Bulls ready to run but maybe that's too difficult could you give us more information maybe a step-by-step plan of how it could play out following price action but then even given that price action can we get more confidence and can we know what could be coming right around the corner maybe just tell me what's going to happen in one word and then after you do that give me some confirmation and let me know you're still feeling that way alright alright it's Friday and we're just having some fun so first up let's crack open this chart of spy first things first this is a weekly chart of spy and I want to point your attention to the weekly chart because today did close the weekly candle and we did get confirmation of a bull breakout remember we've been talking about this bullish weekly pivot off the support at spy 380 and all we needed was the confirmation of that breakout above spy 400 and now you can tell looking at the price action we did get that breakout on increasing volume game but we did close just below the critical resistance which is going to be that Weekly resistance at spy 407 so going into next week we know now we have critical support at the breakout at spy 400 and critical resistance at spy 407 so that is very likely going to be our trading range that we need to respect and we can just day trade the trading range between 400 and 407 and then wait for the confirmation of the breakout we're getting a lot more bullish if we close above 407 next week and we're getting a lot more cautious of the potential of a little bit of a false breakout if spy starts breaking back down below 400.
so looking at this weekly chart this is looking very bullish we just need that next confirmation of that break of that resistance at 407. jumping over to the daily chart of spy you can see that same critical resistance that we see on the weekly chart and if we do get the bull breakout above that this bear is likely going to retreat back up to 414.
now keep in mind if we get the bull breakout above spy 407 to 408 that is going to be a very bullish development because it's going to look like a very strong bull Trend and we are having including the 200 daily so it's very bullish when spy is above 407 to 408 and the critical support to maintain your long position is going to be down here right around 400 or you can use this daily support right around spy 398.
if we start losing that support you do need to be more cautious because we could be coming back down towards 390 but again you're not going to know that unless you get confirmation in the price action and a lot of people have been doubting this bull rally because they've been ignoring the fact that the market is making higher lows and higher highs that is a very common mistake when you don't follow price action because price action right now is telling us to remain bullish because we are seeing those higher highs and higher lows so if you're looking to get bearish you need to wait for confirmation and a loss of support and then you can get a lot more bearish if you're going to be bearish and blindly short at resistance that can work but just keep in mind because you have such a good risk word ratio your probability of winning that trade is going to be a lot lower which does mean there's a very good chance the Bulls do get that bullish breakout next week it doesn't guarantee it's going to happen but there is a very good chance the Bulls are going to continue pushing higher on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were up one percent today and again all of this is happening on increasing volume as we did get the very bullish double bottom breakout above that critical resistance at triple cues levels of 294.
that is the neckline breakout from the double bottom off of the support at 260 which means the triple cues can go a lot higher as long as they remain Above 294. So for that reason in the triple queues you can stay bullish above the breakout at 294 but there is a very good chance we do come all the way back down to fill the Gap at 288 and then get a little bit of a false breakout look which likely is going to end up being a bear trap before we go fully close this Gap up here at triple Q's 308 now don't get sold on the idea that we have to go lower because this is still a very bullish pattern and the last thing we saw was a bounce off the support trend line so there is going to be the possibility the Bulls push right through this picture of the bear and go close that Gap at 308 without much of a pullback in the event we don't get a deep pullback we're likely going to hold above 294 and in the event we get a little bit of a spook in the market we could pull back as far as 288 and then below 288 we lose the support trend line and we instantly need to get more bearish on the Dow Jones we were flat on the day basically going absolutely nowhere but overall the price action is still above all of the moving averages and we still have the bull Trend but there's a very good chance we are building out a triangle and you can see we got a very clear rejection from the top of my triangle today so this resistance right around 341 has to be respected and then above that we have resistance at 343 and then 346.
from here we could pull back towards 335 or the bottom of the triangle right around 332 and if we break out of the triangle we're looking for strong support at 327. you can tell the Dow Jones has very low volume so a lot of the money is going into the tech sector and we also do have the fact that the Dow Jones could continue to go absolutely nowhere until we get a break out of this triangle on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were up 0.54 today and iwm has the second day in a row of the bull breakout above the resistance at 188 which means we could start to see the small caps running towards 195 to 197.
stay bullish above 188 and if we break below 188 we could be coming back down towards about 185 to 182 and below that we do have the Gap to fill just below 181. on The RK ETF we were up 5.54 today and we made it to the critical resistance at 40.4 and we're just below this negatively sloping 200 daily moving average at 41.
this is largely due to the short squeeze in Tesla so this is not surprising in the slightest and if we can see RK breaking this ETF did see the bottom back in December and we could be starting a very early bull Trend but if that's going to be the case we're very likely still going to be due for retracement to a higher low before we fully break out and start running from here so we're instantly getting a lot more bullish above 40.4 and the 200 daily moving average at 41 but right now we need the respect the fact that this is very strong resistance and this is still in a bear Market while it's blowing negatively sloping 200 daily moving average on the vix we were down 1.18 and the vix is closing down here at 18.5 and we're getting many many consecutive closes below 20 and I continue to tell you this is exactly what you see in a bull Trend low vix is low fear and you have low fear in a bull Trend so don't be surprised that the vix is heading lower while we're getting a bullish chart now if the Vic starts spiking above 20 something else is happening and you can instantly get more cautious but right now the vix is telling you that we are very likely heading into a sustainable bull rally on bitcoin we're currently trading right around 23 137 and we are still above all of the moving averages with the price action and we still have a bull Trend which means we still could be trying to push up towards 24 000 500 up to about 25 000.
you could stay bullish Above This breakout at 22 400 and if we break down below that we're very likely going to start retracing back down towards 21 315. on Amazon stock we were up 3.04 today and Amazon did follow through with that breakout yesterday because yesterday we did clear above the resistance at 98 and above 98 we were very likely going for the next Lake higher at 102 and that is exactly what the price action did today it happened on increasing volume so this is definitely looking like a bull breakout as we develop a bull Trend and the next likely Target above 102 is going to be the gap for that 110 and then this negatively sloping 200 daily moving average right around 113.
it is possible by the time we fill that Gap that moving average does come down lower so right now we'll be looking for 110 above 102. you could stay bullish as long as we're above the breakout at 98 if we break down below 98 you're looking for support at 93.6 and then the Gap fell right around 90. on Microsoft stock we were only up 0.06 percent today so we went absolutely nowhere and we closed those basically where we closed yesterday however while we're above 242 it's likely we're heading to 252 and then 255 and then above 255 we're looking for The Gap closed at 265.
stay bullish above 242 and then below 242 we're likely coming back down towards 237 to 232. on Nvidia stock we were up 2.84 today and we have seen the bullish breakout above the resistance at 192 which means we're likely running to the next Target higher at 213. stay bullish above 192 and if we break 213 we're likely heading to 230.
if we break down below 192 we're likely coming down towards this Gap fill right around 178 and we do have support at 179. on Tesla stock we were up another 11 today and it is very safe to say that this v-shaped capitulation recovery has completely finished with today's price action because we're all the way back up to the breakdown price which was the breakdown below 173.
so this is exactly what I was talking about when I made that video titled is it time to buy Tesla because typically during a capitulation when everybody has Panic selling you want to be buying shares like there's no tomorrow as long as it's in a company that has a bright future which obviously Tesla is one of those companies you can see there was extremely high volume today and that was all of the short sellers getting squeezed out of this stock because there is still a record number of short sellers in this stock there is still likely going to be a lot more pain ahead for those short sellers so for that reason this is just as irrational as the capitulation so I have no way to project exactly where Tesla is going to find a top and this is definitely a high-risk stock if you are going long with this v-shaped recovery because a lot of the gain has already been realized so from here above 173 we're looking for the next Target just below 183 and then above 183 we're likely coming all the way back up to the double top rejection up there at 196.
we're a mile outside the upper Bollinger band so I don't expect to see us going too much higher especially if we hit that resistance at 183 and the downside support will now be 173 and 167 and then below 167 will very likely come all the way back down to 155 and then if we break 155 you're looking for this Gap fill right around 145.
so this is going to be a very volatile stock and it pretty much did what we expected it to do after this v-shaped recovery so if you are still trading this stock you need to be very cautious because it's still going to have double digit swings until all of these short sellers completely exit the stock and we go back to a normal equilibrium on Apple stock we rub 1.37 today and apple did hit our next price so I get up here at 146 with the next upside price Target being this negatively sloping 200 daily moving average at 148 and then the resistance level right around 150.
I think there's a very good chance we are going to 150 but we will want confirmation with that breakout above 146. if we get rejected from 146 look for downside support at 141 and 138. on the financials we were flat on the day but we still have a bull Trend with the bullish price action the Industrials were up 0.42 today and again we still have th points six eight percent today still struggling to break that resistance at 134 and it does have the bear Trend so there is a very good chance we are coming down towards the 200 daily moving average and that is going to be right there right around 131.
on the energy sector we were down 2.02 today as we're getting rejected around the resistance zone between 92 and 94 but overall we do have a bull Trend and the price action is still above it is very important you stay objective and you follow what the chart is telling you and right now we are getting bullish price action with bull Trends and we're seeing it across the board except for some of the sectors that are considered defensives when you're getting this risk on sentiment and you're seeing bull Trends and high risk assets like Bitcoin and you're starting to see ETFs like RK finally starting to reach some very critical resistance you can definitely see how it is possible that we could be in the very early stages of a bull market if you don't believe me that's just fine but if you're staying objective and following the chart that is exactly the evidence that we are witnessing so stay objective looking into next week we're going to have a lot of catalysts with fomc but we have a very clear trading range and we know exactly what to do by following the price action so don't forget I do have a trade alert service that only trades the ETFs to so if you're interested in learning more about that trade alert service or want to subscribe you can find out also have the stocks Channel Discord where you get full you'll also have access to the members only video
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