저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500이 주간 저항선 407 근처에 와 있어 강세 돌파 여부가 관건이라며, 저항 돌파 확인 전까지는 신중하고 단기적으로는 조정 가능성을 언급. 나스닥100(QQQ)은 294 저항, 다우·러셀2000·VIX·비트코인·테슬라·엔비디아 등 개별 차트의 지지·저항 레벨을 제시. 전반적으로 강세 시장으로 보지만 단기 눌림목 대기 권고.
다듬은 글
it's time to battle the bear will the bear be victorious or will the Bulls push right through resistance first let's take a look at the weekly chart of spy and you can see we have one more day left in the trading week and we are currently having a very bullish weekly candle that is very close to the next resistance on this weekly chart which is right here at spy 407 so it's definitely time to battle the bear because the bear will be waiting right there at that resistance level and that is going to be a decent risk reward short setup so I would not be surprised to see bear stepping in at that level but I do want to point your eyes to the fact that we're getting the bull breakout out of the bear Market resistance trend line after a very bullish weekly pivot from the support level at spy 380.
so anytime you get a bullish pivot and it's on a weekly chart all we need now is to break that critical resistance to get the higher high on the weekly chart and we're well Off to the Races to higher prices so we'll take a look at the weekly chart again tomorrow but just letting you know currently things are still looking very bullish but we can't ignore the fact that we're coming into a very critical resistance zone so jumping over to the daily chart of spy we can see that today was obviously very bullish because we did close up 1.1 percent and we did clear above that resistance trend line that was giving spy a lot of resistance because that's exactly where we've been getting rejected from and today we did get the first day closing back over that level after the rejection so one thing to pay attention to is that all of these moving averages are crossing over to support the buyers with very positive slopes and the price action is currently above all the moving averages so you can see I currently have the bear placed up here between spy 407 and 408 and that is very likely going to be a very critical resistance Zone and in the event that we do get rejected from there we could still build out this very bullish inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and still break out above that resistance at a later date and still have a very bullish chart so as you know I've been bullish and I'm remaining bullish but there is going to be a very critical resistance level that the Bulls need to break and there's just no way you should be taking on a lot of risk at resistance so wait for that resistance to break down then we'll get the confirmation of the bull breakout on the weekly chart and then we can get more bullish yet again but right now we're locking in profits we're sitting in cash and we're even considering shorting at resistance because that is where all the risk and reward is right now so it will favor the Bears over the next couple of days to at least suppress the Bulls from breaking that resistance until we get a little bit of a cool down so yes you can stay bullish but you need to have realistic expectations and right now the realistic expectation is that we're coming into very critical resistance and we need to be cautious so if we get the bull breakout we'll see it as spy breaks over that level at 407 to 408 with the next critical resistance at 414 and the critical downside support Remains by 399 to 400 so if you want to stay bullish go ahead and use that as your risk level if we break down below that we could come down to about 395 to 391 and all of that is critical support so the Bulls do have a lot of support levels to use to continue to push higher on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were up 1.95 today which is surprising because the Bears keep telling us that this Market is not bullish but I digress because we have to take things more seriously as we come into very critical resistance which is going to be exactly where the triple Q's close today which is this critical resistance right around 294.
the big bad bear is just breathing down the Bull's neck waiting at that resistance so I would not be surprised if we do get rejected from that resistance and come back down towards this Gap fill around 288 and then I think we'll find the Bulls buying the dip yet again they'll cool down they'll rest a little bit and then they'll make it another attempt to break that bear Market resistance yet again once we get to cool down so yes in the short term I do think the Bears have a very good risk or trade which means we are very likely going to see a little bit lower prices before we go any higher and then once we break that resistance at 294 I will be looking for The Gap fill up there right around 308 so in the short term be very cautious trying to be a bullet resistance because this bear is just begging to take a bite of you you're much better off being patient and waiting for the confirmation that the bear has been defeated however with that being said if you want to remain bullish just set your risks down here right around 288 or the breakout level right around 283 and if we break all of that then obviously something else is happening and you need to start looking for lower prices but right now the Bulls are in full control and this is looking a lot more bullish even though in the short term yes we are expecting a pullback in the Dow Jones we brought 0.6 percent today and the Dow Jones has the price action with the moving averages and it clearly looks like we're building out a triangle which means we're likely going to have strong resistance between 341 and 343.
above that we have strong resistance at 346 and then 350 with the critical downside support at 335 331 and this downside support zone right around 327. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we about 0.59 today and we did get the bull breakout above 188 but it was just by a little bit on low volume so there is a good chance it's a false breakout and we're going to know if the price action breaks back down below 188 and then we'll be looking for prices to come back down towards 183 down to about 181.
we also do have a gap to fill down there so I would not be surprised to revisit that support with the critical resistance up here right around 188 if we continue the bull breakout we're looking for the next upside targets at 195 and then 197. on the RK ETF we were up 2.03 today and RK is trying to get that bull break out Above This resistance at 38 but obviously is struggling to do so but from there if we do get the breakout we're going up to the next resistance higher at 40.4 command your rest down here right around 38 to 37 and if we break that we're likely coming all the way back down to 34.5 and below that we do have a gap 31.68 on the Vex we were down 1.94 today as the vix continues to get crushed down below 20 and I continue to tell you this is bull market Behavior because the vix is going lower because there's no fear in the market so while the vix is below 20 you need to be a lot more bullish and if the vix bikes above 20 then you can instantly get more cautious on bitcoin we're currently flat still trading around 23 000 but we're still above all of the moving averages which is a very bullish indication that Bitcoin is holding on to its recent bull market gains and we are saying this is a Bitcoin bull market while it's trading above 20 000.
downside support will be 22 400 and then 21 300 and the next upside resistance is just below 25 000 right around twenty four thousand five hundred on Amazon stock we were up 2.1 percent today and we did get that bull breakout above 98 which means from here we could start to run to 102 and then above 102 we could run up to fill that Gap at 110.
we have earnings right around the corner now and we do have downside support down here at 93.5 and the Gap fill at 90. and as you can tell we are above all of the moving averages except the negatively slipping 200 daily moving average and that could be the next Target we're trying to get to on Microsoft stock we rub 3.07 percent today okay even though a lot of people were saying that Microsoft was going to crash the market after earnings it is clearly now breaking out above resistance and above our critical support at 242 which means it is trying to get to 252 and then 255.
this is why it's important to follow the chart and not what the majority are telling you because the majority would have you thinking that Microsoft was crashing and heading to much lower prices so from here you're only getting bearish in Microsoft if it breaks down below 242 to 240 and then we could revisit 236 to 232.
on Nvidia stock we were up 2.48 today and Nvidia is just marching higher with the bull Trend and it's now getting the next Bull breakout above 192 which means from here we could be heading back up to 213. you could stay bullish above 192 because if we break below 192 you want to get a lot more cautious because we're like Landing back down to 179.
on Tesla stock we were up 10.97 today and Tesla has finally completed the v-shaped recovery from the capitulation and this is exactly what we were talking about back when I told you that Tesla was capitulating and one once it was done capitulating it was likely going to recover those losses very quickly well that's now in the past and you can clearly see that is exactly what happened with this stock and we're all the way back up to the critical breakdown which was that level below 155 and we've completely erased the capitulation this is why I always say Panic selling is not rational Behavior because of the high volume selling that was causing a lot of people to emotionally react and obviously that is now for the worse if you did lose money on Tesla because now it's completely recovered but what's done is done and that's a Learning lesson if you've never witnessed capitulation so moving forward Tesla is now going to be a lot more stable of a stock because it is now squeezing out a lot of those short Sellers and returning back to at equilibrium that equilibrium is likely going to be around 155 to 138 and as you can tell we have a ton of gaps to fill to the downside so do not be surprised if Tesla just starts to consolidate and go sideways and this could last anywhere between four to five weeks so for that reason you want to watch for critical resistance at 167 and 173 and we are likely going to stay under that resistance level during this consolidation and then you want to watch for the critical support down here at 155 and 138 and we will have this Gap to fill right around 146.
on Apple stock we rub 1.48 today and we can see apple is breaking back over this resistance at 141 and holding that level as support after we broke through the bear Market resistance trend line which means Apple is very likely well on its way to 147 and then 150 so you can stay bullish an apple as long as it's trading above 140.
below 140 we're likely coming back down towards 138 and the breakout level right around 135. on the financials we were at point five percent today and the financials still have bullish price action with the strong bull Trend the Industrials are up 0.55 today with .19 today but we still have price action trading below this resistance at 134 and you can see we are starting to develop a bear Trend the energy sector was up 3.16 today getting that bull break out above 92 and likely heading to 90 24 next and we can see we still do have this bull Trend so jump it back over the S P 500 get ready to battle the big bad bear yet again because we're coming to the very critical resistance level which is the weekly resistance and this is going to tell us whether or not we're going to break out to higher prices when you're not sure whether or not we're going to see the breakout you're much better just being patient and waiting till the price action proves it because we are very likely going to start chopping around in a trading range until we can consolidate these recent gains and then battle the big bad bear beating the bear is not likely going to be easy but don't rule it out completely so we need to see the price action clearly breaking resistance and then we can get a lot more bullish for those next legs higher eacher book you and hield ]
Comments 0