More worried about uncertainty from Federal Reserve than election: Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

결론: 단기적으로는 기술주 조정이 이어질 수 있어 성급한 매수보다 대기가 낫다는 신중론. 시장 상황: 9월 이후 최악의 주간이었고 채권도 함께 하락해 60/40 분산투자 효과가 약해졌다. 기술주는 처음으로 자체 경고를 내며 리프라이싱 국면에 들어갔다고 진단. 단기 전망: 향후 몇 주간 불확실성이 남아 있으며, 선거보다 11월 4~5일 연준 회의에서 의미 있는 메시지가 나올지가 더 걱정이라고 언급. 연준이 유동성 지원 신호를 주지 않으면 시장은 추가 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 거시 근거: 3분기 GDP 반등, 재정 부양 기대, 중앙은행 지원이 상승 동력이었으나 코로나로 펀더멘털 개선 속도가 둔화하고 추가 부양은 내년 초에나 기대 가능. 유럽은 더블딥 침체 가능성, 중국 단독으로 세계경제를 떠받치기 어려움. 채권: 주식이 하락한 달에도 채권이 손실을 내 위험 완화 수단 역할을 못 했고, 중앙은행 개입으로 채권이 왜곡돼 현재 유일한 위험 완충재는 현금이라고 강조. 섹터: 소재·산업재가 상대적으로 덜 나쁜 섹터이나 아직 매력적이지 않으며 글로벌 경기 둔화 때문에 지금은 기회가 아니라고 판단. 종목: 애플은 올해 고점 약 137달러 대비 현재 약 107달러. 본인이 이해하고 좋아하는 기술 종목은 유지, 매수 욕구가 있다면 더 나은 가격을 기다리라는 조언.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. AS WE SAID, HOLD YOUR HAND BACK FROM THE SELL BUTTON FOR A MINUTE. WE’VE GOT ALLIANZ CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER MOHAMMAD EL-ERIAN JOINING US LIVE. THANK YOU FOR GETTING IN THE CHAIR. DO ME A FAVOR, PLAY THE ROLE OF SHRINK FOR THE MARKETS AT THIS VERY MOMENT. WHAT IS GOING THROUGH THE MINDS OF THE MARKETS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS FRIDAY?

02. I WOULD SAY I UNDERSTAND WHY YOU’RE UPSET. YOU HAVE HAD THE WORST WEEK SINCE MARCH. YOU’VE HAD A SECOND MONTH OF LOSSES. AND YOU KNOW WHAT, YOUR BONDS HAVE SOLD OFF AS WELL THIS MONTH. SO THIS IS A TOUGH TIME. INVESTORS WILL FEEL THEY ARE GETTING HIT FROM ALL SIDES. EVEN YOUR FAVORITE NAMES ARE NURSING BIG LOSSES.

03. I UNDERSTAND WHY YOU’RE UPSET. I UNDERSTAND WHY YOU’RE HURTING. YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND WHY THIS IS HAPPENING AND YOU NEED TO MANEUVER ACCORDINGLY. LIZ: DR. EL-ERIAN. I’M LAUGHING BECAUSE WE ARE PUTTING A HUMAN FACE ON THE MARKETS BUT ALL OF OUR VIEWERS REALLY FEEL THIS VERY CLOSELY AT THE MOMENT. SPECIFICALLY WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TECH WRECK, YOU SEE THAT AS A REAL BUMP IN THE ROAD.

04. FIRST, CAN YOU GIVE US A ROAD MAP OF WHAT YOU EXPECT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND ARE THESE OPPORTUNITIES, BECAUSE APPLE RIGHT NOW IS CERTAINLY LOSING SOME STEAM OVER THE PAST WEEK, BUT YOU WOULDN’T BE BUYING IT AT THE HIGHS WE SAW LAST WEEK. RIGHT. WE HAD THREE VERY BIG DRIVERS OF THIS MARKET. IMPROVING ECONOMY, WE’RE COMING BACK STRONGLY AS YOU SAW FROM THE THIRD QUARTER GDP NUMBERS, POLICY STIMULUS AND INVESTORS CONFIDENT THAT THE CENTRAL BANKS WILL SUPPORT US, THE FED WILL SUPPORT US.

05. THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE NO LONGER IMPROVING AS FAST BECAUSE OF COVID. STIMULUS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. MAYBE THE EARLIEST IT WILL HAPPEN IS EARLY NEXT YEAR. SO INVESTORS ARE RELYING ON JUST TWHOING, ONE THING, LIQUIDITY CONDITIONS. WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK AND THE REASON WHY TECH GOT HIT HARD IS FOR THE FIRST TIME, TECH STARTED WARNING ABOUT WHAT’S AHEAD.

06. EVEN TECH CAN GET WHACKED BY WHAT’S GOING ON. SO I THINK THIS IS A REPRICING. I TELL PEOPLE IF YOU ARE IN NAMES THAT YOU UNDERSTAND AND LIKE, STAY THERE. IF YOU ARE EAGER TO BUY, WAIT A LITTLE BIT. LET THIS PLAY OUT. WE STILL HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS OF REAL UNCERTAINTY. NOT JUST THE ELECTION, I’M ACTUALLY WORRIED LESS ABOUT THE ELECTION.

07. I’M MORE WORRIED ABOUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING NEXT WEEK AND ARE THEY GOING TO TELL US SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT. WAIT A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE MY GUT FEELING TELLS ME YOU WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP GOOD NAMES AT BETTER PRICES DOWN THE ROAD. LIZ: WHY ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THE FED? WE WANT EVERYBODY TO KNOW THE FED MEETING IS NOVEMBER 4th TO 5th.

08. IT’S THAT TWO-DAY MEETING. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING ABOUT THAT FOR YOU? ARE THEY GOING TO REVEAL WHAT THEY SEE? THEY NEED TO DO SOMETHING BECAUSE THE MARKETPLACE HAS BEEN CONDITIONED THAT THE MINUTE IT SELLS OFF, THE FED COMES IN INCREASING LIQUIDITY. WE ALREADY SAW THE ECB, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK THIS WEEK, THEY REACTED BY SAYING WE ARE GOING TO DO MORE AND NOTHING IS OFF THE TABLE.

09. THEY TALKED ABOUT RECALIBRATING, THAT’S THE WORD THAT OUR FRIEND, THE PRESIDENT OF THE ECB, MADAM LAGARDE, USED. RECALIBRATING. U.S. INVESTORS EXPECT THE FED TO SAY SOMETHING BUT THE FED IS IN A REALLY DIFFICULT POSITION. SO IF THE FED DOESN’T SAY SOMETHING COMFORTING, THIS MARKET WILL TAKE ANOTHER LEG DOWN.

10. LIZ: WHAT’S ABOUT BONDS? CAN YOU GIVE US THAT ROAD MAP FOR TREASURIES? THAT’S THE IRONY, THAT IN A MONTH IN WHICH STOCKS HAVE GONE DOWN AND PEOPLE HAVE 60/40 OR 70/30 STOCKS TO BONDS, THEY LOOK TO THE BOND ALLOCATION AND SAY THAT AT LEAST IS MAKING MONEY, IN A WORLD IN WHICH RISKY ASSETS WENT DOWN. THE ANSWER IS THEY DID NOT, THEY ALSO LOST MONEY.

11. IT TELLS YOU WE ARE COMING TO THE POINT WHERE BONDS HAVE BEEN SO DISTORTED BY CENTRAL BANK ACTION THAT THEY NO LONGER BEHAVE IN THE WAY INVESTORS WANT THEM TO BEHAVE. SO THE ONLY RISK MITIGATOR IN THIS WORLD TODAY IS CASH. LIZ: HUH. THIS IS FASCINATING TO ME. CASH BECAUSE YOU ANTICIPATE MAYBE THERE WILL BE BETTER ENTRY POINTS IN THIS AND AS WE FINISH UP, CAN YOU JUST GIVE ME A SENSE BECAUSE THE LEAST WORST SECTOR RIGHT NOW IS MATERIALS, THEN FINANCIALS, THEN INDUSTRIALS.

12. PUTTING ASIDE FINANCIALS FOR THE MOMENT, MATERIALS AND INDUSTRIALS, DO YOU FEEL THAT THAT’S AN OPPORTUNITY AT THE MOMENT? NOT YET, UNFORTUNATELY. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS SLOWING, EUROPE IS GOING TO ENTER POSSIBLY A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION. THINGS ARE SHUTTING DOWN IN EUROPE. AND CHINA CAN’T CARRY THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ON ITS OWN.

13. SO NO, I WOULD WAIT AND ENTER TECH COMPANIES AT BETTER LEVELS. LIZ: TECH COMPANIES AT BETTER LEVELS. ALL RIGHT. BUT THE HIGH FOR APPLE THIS YEAR HAS BEEN ABOUT $137. OF COURSE THERE WAS A SPLIT. RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT APPLE AT $107. SO YOU KNOW, THERE’S SOMETHING HERE. HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND. THANK YOU SO MUCH.