저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 넷플릭스 주가 급락(하루 35%)을 계기로 2개월 전 분석을 되짚으며, 장기 가치투자 관점에서는 매수 가능하나 확신도에 맞춰 소액 비중으로 접근하라는 입장. 주가 흐름: 최근 몇 달간 약 67% 하락. 빌 애크먼의 매수 발표 효과도 실적 악화로 사라짐. 시가총액 약 1,000억 달러를 밸류에이션 기준으로 사용. 애크먼 논리: 좋은 사업이지만 일시적 역풍이 있고, 2~5년 보유 관점에서 매수 적합. 강한 시장 지위, 가격 인상 여력, 규모의 경제, 마진 확대와 잉여현금흐름 증가 기대. 성장 둔화 요인: 구독자 증가 전망이 역대 최저 수준으로 낮아졌고, 분기 기준 글로벌 유료 가입자 순증이 처음으로 감소하며 다음 분기도 감소 전망(악성 가이던스). 성장주에서 가치주로 넘어가는 단계라 시장이 싫어함. 시장 포화와 계정 공유: 전체 도달 가능 시장(800~900백만 가구)이 사라진 것으로 보임. 계정 공유로 실제 사용자는 공식 수치보다 약 50% 많다는 점이 부각됨. 넷플릭스는 공유 가구에 과금 전환을 시도할 것으로 봄. 실적: 매출은 약 9.7% 성장(예상 9.8%)으로 여전히 성장. 처음으로 잉여현금흐름 약 8억 달러 발생. 연간 약 50억 달러 잉여현금흐름 잠재력 언급. 월가 반응: 주가 급락 후 애널리스트 대거 하향. 파이퍼는 목표가를 562달러에서 293달러로 하향, JP모건 더우그 안뮤스는 관망 전환. 광고 요금제 전망은 긍정적이나 실행까지 2년 이상 걸릴 것으로 봄. 콘텐츠 투자: 올해 약 180억 달러 추가 투자 예정. 10년 뒤 수익 개선 기대. 밸류에이션(발표자 자체 모델, 잉여현금흐름 50억 달러 가정): 보수적 시나리오 현재가치 약 900억 달러, 기본 시나리오 약 1,400억 달러(성장 10%, 터미널 멀티플 20배), 낙관 시나리오 약 2,670억 달러(성장 15%, 터미널 멀티플 25배 가정). 현재 시가총액은 기본 시나리오 대비 낮음. 장기 기대수익률 약 10%, 개선 시 20% 이상. 투자 원칙: 주가가 떨어져야 더 살 수 있는 장기 사업인지가 핵심. 확신도에 따라 포트폴리오 비중을 조절하고, 단일 종목 집중을 피할 것. 발표자는 본인이 넷플릭스 지분은 없었다고 밝힘. 페이스북 비교: 페이스북은 사용 감소로 사업이 악화된 반면, 넷플릭스는 시청 시간이 유지되고 있어 성격이 다르다고 판단.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors the comment section exploded on a two months old video because we can clearly say that netflix stock crashed yesterday so down 35 percent in just one day and in this video i want to just quickly summarize the analysis i made two months ago where bill ekman went in big and the risks and rewards explained there compare it also to facebook and give you more insight into what's going on so that you can make your own investment decisions and this is not the first time that netflix stock crashes we have already seen that the first time that earnings disappointed but as tech stocks have been going down recently this is now a 67 decline over the last few months this is really really remarkable and even the ekman effect when he announced that he is buying and the stock consequently went up has been obliterated especially with the last earnings the important thing to memorize here is the market capitalization of 100 billion us dollars that we will use for comparisons and valuation later so when we discussed bill ekman's i'll put the link to all the videos in the description below the lachman says that it is a good business with temporary headwinds and that that is usually what makes it a good buy for a period of two to five years he said it has a strong market position enormous future growth potential even more maybe not growth in subscribers but growth in business and prices and then he in his letter explains why he thinks netflix is a good buy good management economies of scale pricing power substantial margin expansion as the cost will likely be fixed and revenues grow margins will likely expand and that will improve free cash flows and returns of cash to shareholders but then again it is a stock that's going from growth to value and that's something that the market never likes and we have seen a few months ago how the growth forecast for new subscribers was the lowest ever and that got even too negative now so there was the first time a decline in the number of subscribers and then also the change here this is from the previous conference call and the total addressable market of 800 to 900 million suddenly disappeared because it seems that netflix is already fully penetrated with users that as i said in the video and i said in the previous video that i do it too and many of you do it too simply share their passwords with other family members and netflix says that the actual number of users is 50 higher than it actually is i share it with other two households which brings the total addressable market as saturated already and as i said in the previous video market hates uncertainty and that's also the reason why you see the stock crash the update on earnings you see here first time decline in global streaming paid net additions and then also an expected decline in the next quarter thus a bad bad guidance while hundreds of millions of homes pay for netflix well over half of the world's broadband homes don't yet representing huge growth potential so they still see growth with some temporary headwinds they go describing in their letter to shareholders for the quarter what's going on why competition and then 100 million additional households using the passwords from the paying household so they are going to try to do that they're going to try to make me pay for that too we'll see if they will succeed that's always changing something which can be tricky if you really don't have a strong strong mode and we can see that the competition is there youtube is really competing also with netflix of course youtube is the best thank you for being here and also for smashing that like button and subscribing but when it comes to revenues revenues actually grew 9.7 forecast 9.8 in the quarter is not stellar as it was but it is still revenue growth and also first time we see free cash flows 800 million we made an approximate 5 billion yearly free cash flow potential in our valuation we'll discuss that in a moment but then again this is very interesting what does wall street say so 35 declined this is from seeking out for an article and immediately all the analysts downgrade netflix and for example piper here slashed from 562 the stock price target to 293 so they're always analysts always follow the stock price so here they had a high stock price target now they slash it because the stock is down the reasons several issues going forward so subscribers have slowed and we struggle to see a return to pre-covered net ad cadence then on password sharing a new advertising looks promising but implementation is likely two or more years away and as always analysts are myopic and they cannot look two years away so that's wall street jp morgan analyst doug anmuth also the guy that did the conference called this one the last one said how essentially conceded to every key point of the beer thesis and here again now that the stock price is down moving to the sidelines as we look for greater confidence in restoring subscriber growth and re-accelerating revenue typically wall street when things are bad they move to the sidelines when things are great they promote the stock also when things were great the targets were 500 now the target is 235 as a shocking subscriber miss and weak guidance from the conference call the first question was immediately so what has changed over the past few months and then they start discussing all the things mentioned you can read that on netflix or listen so the guidance was consistent with pre-covered and it is now pest covered so there is competition there is just normal doing business on the key things they are going to spend another 18 billion on content this year and they think that 10 years from now they should be getting much more returns on this content spending and now when it comes to investing in netflix as i said i don't have a position in netflix i was not even interested it was an interesting risk reward especially with bill ekman but now it's the time to make a decision whether you are investing in stocks like wall street analysts said over the next year two years nothing will happen and when nothing happens the stock either goes down or up if nothing happens it will likely continue to go down negative news negative guidance so until there is a change the stock will not go up but the question is are you now investing in businesses or in stocks that's the main difference that made warren buffett who he is you need the right orientation you know ninety percent of the people i'm pulling a figure out of the air but ninety percent of the people that buy stocks don't think of them the right way they think about something that they hope goes up next week and think about the market as something they hope goes up and if it's down they feel worse i feel better and you think about it aren't they and what do you think i think about what's good the company is going to be worth 10 or 20 years now and i hope it goes down when i buy it because i'll buy more so thanks warren for jumping in and that's the key here will the company 10 20 years down the road be worth more than it is now and then you will hope that it goes down that's the key investing principle key question to think about ekman says that it is such a business and then five ten years down the road it will be worth much more because of the strong subscriber base 200 million potential to increase prices over time add new subscribers and build more around the content and also the value of the content in my free intrinsic value calculation table formula that you can download directly in the link below we analyzed netflix just a few months ago and this is the valuation table so i have used free cash flows of 5 billion expecting some buybacks over the years that will likely come over the years a growth rate in free cash flows of 10 doesn't mean subscriber growth terminal multiple of 20 and then the intrinsic value is 140 billion in a positive case scenario with 15 percent growth a good growth stock terminal multiple then the value is 267 billion with slow growths just six percent on the free cash flow a terminal multiple of just 15 the present value sum is 90 billion remember here is the market capitalization is now close to the bare thesis in my valuation so if they can reach 5 billion in free cash flows to distribute back to shareholders and then grow that steadily over time then netflix is now giving likely a 10 return on investment for the long term if things improve then the return on investment is even higher likely more than 20 percent in the positive case scenario and now i also made a video of facebook analysis and the subscriber growth there was declining the business deteriorating ads but here is it really a business deteriorate deterioration factor or people are still watching the question with facebook was that people were using it less and less and netflix is not the same so my view here is that facebook unfortunately for facebook it is deteriorating and all the bets is on the metaverse coming down the road and that's a big if but netflix still is there people are using it people are still watching it it is a pretty sticky product so that is just their shade of difference between facebook and netflix and you can see here how tv time actually went up over the last what's that 10 months so that is still indicating good usage so the key question you have to answer is where will netflix be 10 years down the road and how certain are you that it is a good business and that it will be there and then if you are invested or thinking of investing the degree of certainty has to be applied to portfolio exposure if you want to invest in netflix but you're not that certain then just go with small portfolio exposures and then if it turns out well you will get a good return to your portfolio if it doesn't like bill ekman does he's not 100 invested it's just one part of his portfolio if it doesn't do well you will likely get your money back from a value perspective and then go to the next interesting opportunity thanks for watching netflix that like button and i'll see you in the next video
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