저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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결론: 영상 내 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없고, 정책·경기 일반론과 가상자산에 대한 회의적 입장이 주된 내용이다. 패니메이·프레디맥: 국영화 여부보다 정책의 일관성과 정치 간섭으로부터의 보호가 중요하다고 주장. 정치적 목적의 주택정책이 금융위기 원인이 되었다고 평가. 세금 개편: 주(州)·지방세(SALT) 공제 폐지는 뉴욕 등 일부 주에 부담이 되지만 옳은 결정이라고 주장. 혜택의 대부분이 고소득층과 특정 5개 주에 집중되었다고 지적. 정책·정치: 트럼프 대통령 임기에 대해 추가 3년 반 정도 전망. 민주당에 강한 중도·친기업 후보가 없다고 평가. 미국 대중은 정부 확대를 원하지 않는다는 인식 제시. 가상자산: 비트코인은 과거 사기라고 말했던 것을 후회한다고 언급. 블록체인은 실재한다고 강조하며 관심은 크지 않다고 발언. 딸이 비트코인을 샀다는 일화와 밀레니얼의 높은 관심을 소개. 법인세·경기: 세금 개편으로 기업 M&A·투자 활동이 늘어날 것으로 기대. 장기 금리가 예상보다 오래 낮았으나 향후 6~9개월 내 상승 가능성 언급(조건부: 건강한 경기에 따른 상승이면 괜찮다고 함). 해외: 중국 성장률은 6~6.5%대, 유럽은 3% 성장으로 예상보다 양호. 프랑스 신임 대통령에 긍정적 평가. 일본은 장기간 저성장 후 약 2% 성장으로 회복, 브라질 성장 개선도 긍정적으로 언급.
다듬은 글
what would ad nationalization of Fannie and Freddie do in terms of mortgage business that would be a positive for the banks if we saw it change would you expect a change coming out of here I think that's really hard to do I think you see something to me the important is not whether Fannie or Freddie are national or Republic it's what their policies are and that they stay consistent and real if you want an advertising three-year mortgage you're gonna need something Fannie or Freddie otherwise they will disappear so I think in America you gonna have it we have one two or ten is not as important most public or private is not as important but it is important that it be protected from political interference because when Fannie and Freddie was trying to be uses you know for politics create more affordable home and stuff like that that was part of not only but poor would cause the catastrophe even in the face of this very strong economy they took away the soft adoption you're in New Yorker you live in New York you lost the ability to deduct this state and local taxes was that the right move yeah it's a hard question the answer is yes it should I always look at questions what should have been it should never have been there it should never been there and the American public people know this 80% of the cash benefit goes to people make over $500,000 a year 80% and something like 70 or 80 percent goes to five states you know and of course in New York my state which I love you notice there we send more money to the federal government we get of course that was supposed to be truly of a very successful economy okay that was not meant that was meant to be part of the federal system so now how they phase it out you know remembered by increasing the standard deduction having the $10,000 I haven't seen real analysis yet 70% of people get to keep it it's the 30% making over two or three or four thousand don't get to keep it and so I think it does it create a burden for New York but you know the New York City and New York State can help figure it out then maybe they'll change it at one point but I would ask what's the right thing to do answer that questions first before you try yelling and screaming about what's good for me absolutely if you're a patriot you know and so we have all these flaws in the system as people protect their own special interests which i think is just a huge mistake so it's gonna be more expensive for you and for me and for authors in New York but it was the right thing to do also cut the tied top tax rate so I'm gonna save you know some couple percent from that and I have to pay a couple percent more even more from that but that is what it is the first business president I remember you were asked recently what you thought his tenure would be you said another three and a half years providing that the Democrats have a real candidate I wish I'd said it's all my probabilistic leave it so wants to run now they aren't gonna run again counts or not that's not my job my job is to helping a good public policy done get the economy growing and help finance cities and stuff like that I am NOT a political expert I know more about then when you do read all the time so you don't know if he's gonna be a one-term president or not I don't of course not do you want to run but no but of course the other thing about the Democrats is you know they they will not have a chance of my appear they don't have a strong centrist pro-business pro-free enterprise person you know the American public is not clamoring for more government you know but they were angry of the Great Recession they kind of blame banks they blame Washington but they're also hanging about the bureaucracy the angry about the VA the DMZ they're angry about the trillions of dollars that is spent it didn't work on various pet-peeve you know pet projects for people and so both sides are right we've done a lot of things in America that didn't work and we haven't analyzed it said okay let's get rid of this when it didn't work let's try something different and so hopefully that will be done you're right you're right there's no centrist candidate what about Oprah I know I didn't see the speech I hear she did a great job and I did all right let me ask you that Bitcoin cuz that was another famous comment that you made that it's a fraud now we see which I regret making the blockchain is real you could have crypto dollars and yeah and and stuff like that I see oh do I look at everyone individually the Bitcoin it was always to me as was what the government's are gonna feel about Bitcoin it gets really big and I just have a different opinion of people I'm not interested that much the subject at all so I'll leave that to everybody else to figure out what they do I think it's funny that I just saw a study that Millennials say thirty percent of Millennials say they'd rather invest in Bitcoin than bonds in stock I don't know I understand where you sit on it I real quick on this I have a daughter who bought two bitcoins yeah I mean that's something young people are into bitcoins so but she now thinks he's a genius because it went way up real quick on on on markets here with this tax plan in the savings for corporate America would you expect the deal flow to continue and pick up in 18 and I POS obviously that was a slow start this patch - yeah I think so I mean we see a lot of M&A chatter and a dialogue activity you know companies wanna most companies want to grow and expand and acquire and build and do R&D that's their that's most ways natural estate the natural state isn't a buy back stock and do dividends and so I think you will see that and having a competitive tax rate our growing economy will probably enhanced that a little bit Jamie any thoughts on rates and their the fact that they're so low I mean the ten years of constant quandary I look they've been lower that much longer than people think but the short run the ten year and they've gotten up slower than people thought I think there's gonna be a point timing up faster than people think and I don't know if that now is that inflection point but it wouldn't surprise me if that's sometime in the next six to nine months but if it's for good reason like a strong American economy that's okay and you said mentioned a minute ago about the rest of the world growing are there areas that are of particular interest to you looking at your paying Europe emerging markets well so China's accomplishing in six to six a half that's a huge economy but the second largest economy in the world effectively is Europe and none of us would have expected Europe you know with all of his issues to be growing at 3% and it is I think they have long term structural issues those have leadership today this this new French president is young he's dynamic he wants to fix the problems he's pro-business and pro enterprise he wants to help his countrymen but you know he I think you uniquely realizes and I can help your countrymen by damaging the economy those two things don't go hand-in-hand so Brazil is completely turned Japan you know it's been almost zero growth for 15 or 20 years and now it's close to two so those are surprises and we should be grateful for those
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