저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장은 낙관적이며 지난 10여일 글로벌 변동성은 견뎌냈다. 2륜차 산업은 저침투율과 교체수요, 몬순 이후 수요 회복으로 최선은 아직 오지 않았다고 전망. Zomato는 펀드 내 비중을 10%초과분 중심으로 줄였고 이는 리스크관리 차원이다. Trent는 이익성장은 높으나 밸류에이션(선행 PER 130배 이상)이 정당화하기 어렵다고 언급. 글로벌 투자자는 인도 고밸류에이션에 민감하다.
다듬은 글
Congratulations to Raam Agarwal. He is the chairman and co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. He joins us from the Motilal Oswal India Investor Conference. This is the 20th issue. Raam, we are very happy to see you here with us. Thank you for your time. Thank you very much. Greetings, Prashant.
The mood is optimistic, as it has been for the past few years. There was a small "heart attack" about 10 days ago due to global markets and significant volatility, but that has passed and the market has weathered it with dignity, especially here in India. In the US, the S&P index is only 2% below its highs.
So we are seeing a surprising stabilization in the markets. What excites you most about this conference, Raam? What would you like to hear over the next few days? You strive not only to talk to investors, but also to hear them; what exactly do you want to learn from the people who gathered at the conference?
In fact, it's a great time after the elections and the budget to have this conference, and we're seeing a lot of participation from both corporates and funds. A lot of foreign investors have come today, so I'm looking forward to interacting with them. I have two goals. The first is to attend corporate meetings and understand what is happening in practice, as the post-Covid recovery has been uneven.
I mean, there were certain areas, like consumer goods and FMCG, where development was very slow. So what's going on there? We will have speakers from the consumer sector, and the Hero MotoCorp session will begin immediately after. We brought together many corporations to get answers to two questions for conference attendees.
First, understand the situation in different sectors: where there are positive developments and where there are problems. Secondly, what will be the behavior of foreign investors, as they are big players in the Indian context. Of course, thanks to retail investors, the role of foreigners has diminished somewhat, but they remain significant players, and their participation, especially in procurement, can push markets even further, as we have seen in the last two years.
So, these two aspects are key for me. Very interesting, Mr. Agarwal, you are talking about the corporate sector here. What about demand? And from the investor side, how do foreign institutional investors view the Indian market? You know, they say that a bull market overcomes walls of anxiety, and we have overcome entire mountains of such anxiety in the past month and a half.
But now the bull market itself has become a cause for concern, mainly because of everyone talking about valuations and the euphoria we see around many stocks. Is there even a hint of risk among all the participants gathered here? Are there any concerns that people are talking about? It's still early, in the sense that we've just started, it's morning, and they're just arriving and gathering here.
So throughout the day, as we communicate with them, we learn more; perhaps face-to-face evening meetings will reveal their concerns and fascinations with India. The only concern, both among domestic and global investors, is valuation. Global investors have a choice: don't come, go to other markets, buy stocks elsewhere, or don't buy at all. Domestic investors have no choice—if they want to buy, they have to buy India.
So this is a fundamental difference, and we still need to understand the sentiment towards foreign institutional investors. And what I saw two months ago in the US—it seemed to me that they were waiting for the elections to be over to take a fresh look at India. So, whether they are as positive as domestic investors remains to be seen, or whether their high valuations will hold them back.
So I think we can only talk about this in two days, not now.
Ram, you know, one corporate conversation that I would really pay attention to and would like to know the outcome of is Hero MotoCorp. I think some of the management will join you, and these are very interesting times for the two-wheeler segment, aren't they?
As Bajaj intensifies competition by launching a CNG motorcycle, Ola is really heating up the fight by entering the motorcycle market as well. Now look at Ola shares. They have almost doubled since listing. So we know that markets can swing to extremes: extreme fear and extreme greed. What stage do you think we are at now with a business like Ola, and overall, what is your feeling about the two-wheeler market?
There is so much going on here. When the base of the pyramid rises—when there is a "trickle-down effect" and the lower strata become more active—the demand for two-wheelers should just explode, because the penetration rate still has the potential to grow. The last 2-3 years after Covid have been sluggish, so there will probably also be a lot of demand for replacement.
My feeling is that the demand for two-wheeled transport will increase, but that's if we talk about overall figures. Yes, the hype around Ola's market share and the excitement about the new business model are there, but what is actually happening on the ground—we will find out when we meet the management of Hero and Ola or anyone else in this industry.
So I would say the best is yet to come for the industry. The recovery will gain momentum. We saw the results of the first quarter; they were fantastic for Hero, and I believe they will get their sales back as the monsoon season is very favourable. After the monsoon, when it's harvest time, the demand will be quite high.
Got it, Ram. By the way, will there be another company at the conference, for example, Zomato? I don't think so, meaning they can attend meetings as a company, but they are not on the general list of speakers. Of course, we're getting new ways of estimating demand, right? Weekend orders.
I'm sure you've seen the pace of orders. It's something that... I don't know if you have to do it every Monday, looking at the weekend's results, like we sometimes do with movies. But an incredible takeoff. You were optimistic. You were one of the first. You were a "bull" in the market.
Yes. But at the fund level, you were also recording profits, Ram, as far as Zomato is concerned. What are the general considerations? Tell me how much you have, where you started at the peak, and how much you have now, speaking of this position.
At the mutual fund level, these positions are constantly changing. But you rightly noted: what we accumulated at the sub-fund level after the first correction, we have already sold a fairly significant part of at the mutual fund level. I can't say the exact position as of yesterday or today. However, we have significantly reduced the share as prices have risen above 200.
Even fund managers get a little nervous when stocks move like this, and they want to lock in profits to have funds for new opportunities. Also, for risk management purposes, when the share in the portfolio exceeds 10%, from a regulatory perspective you also have to reduce it. According to our investment style, we reduce it to 6-7%.
So all of this has led to some profit-taking. But my forecasts for the industry remain extremely optimistic, as this is the largest online business and one of the biggest opportunities we are seizing, particularly in the fast-commerce segment. I believe the best in this segment is yet to come.
You know, Mr. Agarwal, your wealth creation metric usually depends on the scale of the opportunities, margin improvements, and the revaluation of value that can also occur. Regarding Zomato, we have already seen a lot, but the scale of the possibilities still remains. I'm interested in hearing your thoughts, particularly about Trent, as I'm planning a meeting with the CEO there.
Trent continues to show earnings growth of over 80%. The valuation has already been revalued—over 130 times forward earnings for the year. What other triggers are there for wealth creation here? What would you like to hear from Trent management at a meeting with the CEO?
The businesses are very interesting, what they're doing and what they're achieving is very exciting. But the valuation part, which is happening at 100, the pace—even if you look at Ola's listing at 76, and now 140, as you've probably heard, I think 140, 135, 140—the demand that exists in the system, and all the funds are sitting on cash. So the assessment is something that becomes difficult to justify even for an optimistic person like me.
Wherever there is expected growth, we see huge demand, and sometimes prices are ahead of the underlying cost. So I would say that prices, even in the trend, have reached a level that is very difficult to understand, but there is a dynamic in both the company's performance and the price.
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