India Looks Calmer Vs The Big Moves In Other Markets: Ed Yardeni | CNBC TV18

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2024년 8월 캐리 트레이드 청산에 따른 글로벌 변동성 충격의 최악은 지났을 가능성이 크다는 진단. 일본은행이 금리 인상 후 추가 인상을 보류하겠다고 밝힌 점을 긍정 요인으로 꼽음. 8월 초 고용보고서 약세는 날씨 영향이 컸다고 봄(BLS 집계 150만 명 영향). 인도는 타국 대비 충격이 적었고, 미 경기가 생각보다 약하지 않아 연준이 50bp 대신 25bp만 인하할 수 있다는 시각. 글로벌 경기 둔화(특히 중국)로 디스인플레이션 흐름이 이어지며 중앙은행들은 완화 쪽으로 기울 것으로 보나, 최근 변동성 때문에 공격적 인하가 나올 것이라는 시장 기대는 과하다고 봄.

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01. Ed yini is with US president at yini research Ed good morning great to have you with us here and thanks for joining in as always uh I think uh the only question everyone once has on their mind is if is the if the worst of the panic is kind of behind us and now we're in more normal markets in that sense that your thoughts I I think the worst may very well be behind us because I think a lot of it had to do with the carry trade that uh Unwound uh particularly when the bank of Japan announced that they were going to be raising interest rates suddenly all these speculators that had borrowed cheap money at 0% basically in Japan found that they they were basically short the the Yen and had to cover so I think a lot of the volatility in global markets had to do with that and it was pretty intense clearly but the bank of Japan has come out with a statement that um they're going to hold off on further rate increases until the markets calm down so I think that's a big positive I don't really believe that Friday's employment report was as weak as everybody has seemed to fear because I think the weather had a big component in in there as a matter of fact the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the in the same report in the employment report said that 1.5 million people were affected by the weather in terms of their jobs doesn't mean that they lost jobs but it probably affected the work week and I think it may very well have had an impact on some part-time employment so all in all I think you're absolutely right the initial claims dated to tomorrow Thursday morning in the United States uh will be very important uh we're expecting to see it decline because the past couple of weeks it's gone up on the on the Texas initial claims which clearly reflected the hurricane Barrel Ed hi good morning and thanks for joining in how are you feeling about a market like India we continue to see good gains but now the market has started to correct a tad bit given the kind of global volatility what's the best way to approach it now well India looks pretty calm compared to some of the big moves we've seen in other markets uh the Japanese Market on one on one day on Monday was down 12% so I think the epicenter of this unwinding of the carry trade was basically Japan I think it's had a big impact in the United States I think a lot of car carry Traders borrowed money in Japan converted the yen into dollars and bought the Magnificent s and maybe NASDAQ 100 so we also got hit pretty hard over here uh but I think in investors are going to be quite impressed that India got through this without a great deal of uh turmoil not as much as other countries and so I think that's a positive for the Indian market but uh you know all these markets are interconnected I think when we get the uh a sign that maybe the US economy isn't all that weak and maybe the fed's only going to do a quarter instead of 50 which is what the market now thinks that might have an overall impact of kind of cooling things down a bit anyways I think it's time for a little a little cooling action sideways action in the markets well uh Ed good to see you and in fact you know a time wise correction is something that Indian market participants will take and we've been relative outperformers as well which is which is hardening a quick word on the RBI because you know today we have that crucial meet how do you see RBI move ahead from year on the FED in all probability going by the Futures well that's suggesting that maybe 100 basis points is in the offing do you believe that's going to happen and also how do you see the RBI move from here well I I think uh the the RBI like all central banks is going to continue to focus on the inflation picture and the inflation picture globally has been going pretty well uh I wouldn't be surprised if we get uh one or two setbacks over the next few months which means that central banks that have been easing around the world may decide uh that U it's it's enough for now and they're going to wait for some more inflation news but all in all the global economy looks pretty weak which I think particularly China by the way and I think that's contributing to Global disinflation and that being the case uh I think all central banks um uh are now no longer talking about raising rates other than Japan of course and they backed off uh but I think most other central banks are looking for uh for cutting rates but I I I think investors may be jumping the gun if they think that the recent volatility in financial markets is going to force central banks to ease more aggressively I don't think they're going to do that uh no absolutely Point taker Ned uh you know markets what always sort of looking ahead and trying to price everything in right uh they think central banks had time now they don't maybe the central banks think otherwise uh so they don't have to follow always they do follow What markets want sometimes but not always thanks very much Ed great to have you with us here appreciate you joining in uh with a lot of that perspective we'll take a