저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2026년 2월 말 기준 시장을 약세장처럼 느끼게 하는 7가지 요인(금 급등에 따른 FOMO, Mag7 vs AI 공급업체 밸류에이션 역전, AI발 소프트웨어 매도, 새 연준의장 시험, 엡스타인 파일, 사모신용 우려, 관세 변동)을 제시. Granny 포트폴리오 3개월 리밸런싱 결과 에너지·소재·헬스케어 비중 확대, 가치·퀄리티 스타일 선호, 계절성 상위 섹터 편입. 연초 대비 Granny 1.18%로 S&P500 대비 소폭 상회, Granny J는 대비 열위.
다듬은 글
called Granny Shots. This is our update for the week of February 23rd. This is going to be a longer video than usual because we have a rebalance for the Granny Shots and so I want to cover a lot of the dynamics there in addition to our usual content. First, let me start with some particulars. As of February 20th, the price of Granny, ticker GRNY, was 2505, NAV of 2505, and total assets of 4.15 billion.
For Granny J, or the small mid-cap Granny, the price was 2780, NAV of 2783, and total assets of 391 million. And for Granny I, which is the income-oriented large-cap Granny Shots, the price was $20.15, NAV of 20, and total assets of $58 million. I want to talk about year-to-date performance. Year-to-date, Granny Shots is up 1.18% compared to 1.11% seven basis points.
For Granny J, year-to-date performance is 8.96% compared to 8.5% for the Russell 2500, which is 39 , the total return is plus 0.28% compared to plus 1.11% for the S&P 500, or underperformance of 82 basis points. So, let's talk about macro. I think there's seven reasons why it feels like a bear market at the moment.
Year-to-date, the S&P is up uh 1%. And as you can see, looking at this chart, it is a little jaggedy, but the trend is higher. But I think But here are the reasons why I think it feels like a bear market. First is that gold has done so well that it's created FOMO or fear of missing out. Here's the thing.
Gold has actually done so well, and it's partly cuz geopolitical risk, that it's now larger than the S&P 500 in terms of market cap. So, the S&P ex-Mag 7 is actually smaller than the gold market. And as as I've said before and many times in the past, a continued rise in precious metals is not sending a great signal for equities for multiple reasons, but part of it, of course, is it's a vortex for risk appetite.
The second is there's been a rotation in what I call armies versus bullets. The armies are the Mag 7, and the bullets are the AI suppliers. As you can see, uh markets have rotated from favoring armies, which are the companies that have great businesses, to the arms makers. But here's the thing. We've now created a valuation discrepancy.
In the past, the armies always traded at a premium to the bullet makers. But as you can see, in 2026, that has flipped, and now the armies trade at more than a 3-point PE discount to the bullet makers. Does that make sense? I don't know, but here you go. You can see, if you look at the bullet makers, semis, power generation, and infrastructure now trade at higher PE multiples than the Mag 7.
I think there's going to be a rotation back later this year, and so you have to be mindful of that. The third is that AI continues to be roiling sectors. It's I guess AI rampage. The latest being software. And keep in mind people had talked for years about software eating the world, but now AI is eating the software industry.
And so I think investors are taking a fire aim ready approach. Uh meaning they're just they're first selling everything before they decide if they actually want to buy anything. And keep in mind there are AI resilient stocks out there. So software has fallen to the lowest um prime brokerage exposure ever according to Goldman Sachs.
Crypto's also been under pressure. A lot of that has to do with the outperformance of gold and risk appetite. The Fed uh with the new Fed chair, the market's trying to understand this new Fed chair and I'll talk about it in another video, but the market always tests the new Fed chair as well. Tangentially keep in mind the Epstein files.
I think they've continued to to sort of remain a headline story and it's creating a lot of high-profile embarrassments. And of course most recently private credit is again resurfacing because of some of the concerns about companies like Blue Owl. And people believe there's echoes of the GFC. Now something that is roiling markets, but I don't think it's making it feel like a bear market is the tariffs.
The Supreme Court not surprisingly overturned Trump's tariffs. And President Trump in turn is actually implementing well originally a 10% tariff, but now it's 15%. Um and he has authorities to actually levy a tariff, so it's not like it's going away. So now let's talk about the Granny rebalance cuz that happens every 3 months and we just had the latest rebalance.
Okay, this was executed on February 18th, so it happened last week already. Um now let's start with Granny. This is both Granny and Granny income. Uh the top three sector weights remain in tech, industrials, and financials. But, the weighting has shrunk a little bit from 74% to 60%. But, what has increased is energy, materials, and health care.
They were actually zero weights in Granny and Granny Income before. But, now they're uh 8, 7, and 3%. So, they've gone from zero to 18%. For Granny J, uh, industrials, information tech, and financials were originally 74%. They're now 63%. And energy and health care were 8% in the portfolio previously, and they're now 16%.
So, that's really where the changes have taken place. It's energy and health care and materials. Now, these changes are not taking place because of the macro themes of energy, slash cybersecurity, millennials, global labor suppliers or easing financial conditions. It's really because of style tilt, seasonality, and the PMI recovery shifts.
Okay, and these rebalance every 3 months. For instance, in terms of style, previously we were recommending quality growth and quality cyclicals. Now, it's actually value quality and quality cyclicals. Okay? And so, that's what we think will outperform the next 3 months based on our analysis. These are the top eight sectors, seasonally speaking.
Tech hardware, semis, ground transportation, aerospace and defense. Life science tools, metals and mining, oil and gas consumers, and biotech. You might think these have already done well. That's true, but this is the seasonal pattern. And that leads to both deletions from our portfolio, uh, which were done on February 18th, and additions.
So, let's look at um the additions. Chevron, this is for large cap. Chevron, Union Pacific was added. Texas Pacific Land Corp, One Oak, Amgen, Air Products Packaging Corp, PPG, uh Northrop Grumman. Now, on Smed Granny, there were a a lot of 11 removals, which is a lot, and 18 additions. Okay? Um so, uh Carpenter Technologies, Curtiss Wright, Exelixis, Halozyme Therapeutics, Valmont Industries, Array Technologies, Fabrinet, Hyatt Hotels, Domino's Pizza, e.l.f.
Beauty, Carrier Global, United Health Services, HFC, Sinclair, Huntington Ingalls Industries, DT Midstream, Energy Fuels, Lattice Semiconductor, EchoStar. And that's it. Now, let's um talk about Granny stock performance. And rather than talk about individual names, I want to talk about the themes that outperformed this week.
Number one was energy and cybersecurity. Number two, our millennials. And number three is the PMI recovery. That's it for now. Thanks for listening to this long video, and I'll speak to you next week.
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