저자: TomLee · 외국인
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엔비디아는 2024년 900% 상승 이후 조정 필요, 양자컴퓨팅은 장기 테마이며 AI가 최대 수혜. 엔비디아 주가가 연말 랠리를 좌우하므로 하락 시 매수 후 짧은 손절 기준을 두자는 입장. 2025년 상승 여력은 제한적이지만 모멘텀은 유지될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
let's welcome in Tom Lee now fund strats head of research and a CNBC contributor with us as you see at post n welcome it's good to see you great to see let's hit Tech first um the I yeah year is now down to 133 so the two biggest contributors to four ing o-back 20% years and isks you're you're worried about too being too efficient cutting too much and what the impact is going to be yes valued highly on the stock market due to their extraordinary gains Nvidia with its cuttingedge Technologies and strategic foresight has seen a meteoric rise of approximately 900% since the dawn of 2023 this jaw-dropping surge prompts the tantalizing question on every Financial expert's mind can Nvidia sustain this momentum to achieve another Blockbuster year in 2025 speculation is Rife particularly regarding their significant contributions to artificial intelligence advancements through their gpus industry leaders such as meta Microsoft and Amazon continue to Signal towards further collaborative growth Reviving memories of past successful Endeavors the looming question is will 2025 be the year that solidifies nvidia's position as the number one AI stock as investors hold their breath the financial atmosphere is charged with anticipation and Intrigue welcome back everyone to invest ocracy just distilling what you said before Gro you're choosing IBM over Google you're choosing IBM over Nvidia well I think Nvidia right so nvidia's top clients are its top competitors so that the writing on the wall is is there not that I don't think it can go higher but I think that it's probably run its course right now and needs to pull back thank you I'll ask you this question and on the back of that who should be worried about this I saw in your notes probably not Nvidia not AMD yet but somebody has to be yeah I think you know there's some of the other uh Quantum uh companies there's private companies on that side but I think on the public side um you know the the worries are are probably because this again is so far away I think the the piece that uh the rest the mag 7 needs to be contemplating here and Nvidia needs to be thinking about is just what are they doing to have some sort of position within Quantum Computing it is it's Theory right now but I think you have to pursue that theory similar to uh when Aviation was Theory before we got flight I mean all these things go from projects from the lab and so I would say the the potential losers are the companies that aren't doing that and I think Google is standing alone right now uh with within the mag uh 7 in terms of their investments in Quantum so you said 10 years away from commercialization and what do you think commercialization could be what is the field that could benefit the most from Quantum Computing I mean think it's as simple as AI I mean that just the pier uh you went through the numbers basically going from an eternity to 5 minutes I mean it's hard this this is the kind of stuff it's called super positioning it's hard for me to wrap my mind around uh the improvements in compute uh speed and so I think probably the biggest beneficiary is just everything that's AI I mean ultimately you have a company like Nvidia if quantum moves from Theory to actually a production product they need to have an answer down the road and so uh the question what you know who's going to be impacted what's the use cases on these I think AI is probably front and center and within AI probably Healthcare is one of the the biggest uh areas initial areas with financial analysts assembling like eager detectives notebooks and calculators in hand Nvidia is squarely in the Limelight known for crafting groundbreaking gpus and the unmatched power of Cuda software Nvidia has positioned itself as a pivotal player in the rapidly transforming Universe of artificial intelligence the demand surges intensely like a rocket fueled and blazing across the sector with gpus executing parallel calculations at dizzying speeds just what is needed for AI model training Giants such as meta are indicating an approaching significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth setting Nvidia up for another potentially Stellar year it's Nvidia that's been talking about agentx as well as salesforce.com and Nvidia stock is truly under attack from the sellers it's been besieged for days now down over 10 bucks after a 4-day losing streak with the damage getting worse when the People's Republic of China announced its invest viid for monopolistic Behavior I thought that might come to an end last night when Taiwan sent me the manufactur of Nvidia chips reported November Revenue up been astounding 34% by the way it looked for a moment like it would but then the king of sctor engineering started a hideous rollover one that spared no prisoners for anything related to the semis Taiwan semi closed down $723 or 3.6% brutal Nvidia fell $33.74 down 2.69% what crushed the group really right there's a lot of Shadow Boxing here but the approximate cause was the plummet in Oracle which wants to be the biggest builder of data centers worldwide frankly I thought the numbers were good and don't let anyone tell you otherwise CEO s forat stunned us right from the front right from the GetGo saying that she expected Cloud Revenue a spec not that long ago should reach 25 billion this fiscal year that's staggering people the rest of the call was all about the insatiable demand for more data centers and how Oracle can't build them fast enough Larry Ellison the revered chairman of the board and chief technical officer told a story about how Oracle can build data centers faster and cheaper than anyone else on the planet and they don't burn as hot I was blown away when Elon said I quote we just extended our AI performance Advantage by delivering the largest and fastest AI supercomputer in the world scaling up to 65,000 Nvidia h200 gpus end quote ah think of it we've got Nvidia we have supercomputers we have demand demand and then demand and we have an amazing company Oracle that simply can't meet the demand there's a reason four out of six analysts on the conference call offered Aus of congratulations that's the greatest endorsement they can give but it was all for not Oracle stock got clocked from the moment the numbers printed and it kept going lower and lower and lower because not every line was a blowout more on that later but most were some not and given the stock was up 80% for the year before last night's report we needed to see absolute perfection and we didn't get it Oracle Swan Dive splashed red ink all over the fellow Travelers that's Dell that's HP Enterprise the super micro ugly The Continuous heavy investments in AI infrastructure by Tech behemoths like meta Microsoft and Amazon emphasize an unyielding drive and opportunity for NVIDIA to sustain its leadership role still some Skeptics raise a cautionary note pondering whether the potential growth slated for 2025 is already factored into the current stock price an in-depth analysis of nvidia's financials exposes a stout one-year forward price to earnings ratio while Wall Street analysts predict Revenue growth exceeding 50% driven by nvidia's NextGen INF structure aptly named Blackwell this anticipated leap suggests a continued boom backed by evolving upgrade trends that may extend beyond 2025 investors however should remain pragmatic and temper expectations the tremendous returns witnessed in 2023 and 2024 might not replicate perfectly nevertheless a modest double-digit gain is still on the horizon and Nvidia is poised to outperform Market averages once more this reflects not only a stable investment in AI progession but also a testament to its ongoing market dominance and y have you fallen out of love with Nvidia so we haven't fallen out of love with Nvidia we still love Nvidia but our one concern is it's recent price action I would argue that Nvidia is going to dictate whether or not we have a Santa Claus Rally or not it is still one of our largest Holdings but it's broken to 50-day now we do think that it will ultimately break back through and get to New highs as we go into the January but if Nvidia breaks it will take the rest of the market down with it that's one of the problems when you have a name that's so highly concentrated and highly owned uh but right now we would be buying this dip in Nvidia but being a very short leash if does continue weakness but you can't have Nvidia not Rally uh and have the market rally that in our opinion I don't think that's going to happen okay looking at the Mover let's start with Nvidia some news out of the Supreme Court on Nvidia so Nvidia was sued by shareholders for misrepresenting their Alliance on cryptocurrency mining Nvidia appealed that the Supreme Court today in a one- sentence opinion said the case should not have been taken up but the Practical effect of that decision and their wording means it and proceed in closing this captivating narrative it stands out that Nvidia holds a compelling promise for the future while 20125 might not mimic the phenomenal gains of the previous years nvidia's commanding presence in Ai and computational Excellence underscores its Allure to investors with an eye on the years ahead projections continue to point towards a reassuringly steady growth pattern securing its position as a powerful player in the AI stock market landscape with nvidia' and strategic alliances it is well positioned to retain its Market leading status nvidia's journey within the realm of AI is a tale rich with potential and Assurance poised on the brink of yet another enriching chapter the Baton now passes to you what is your perspective on nvidia's path forward is it destined to ascend even higher Heights or could it face turbulent winds regardless of your view One Thing Remains unequivocally certain Nvidia is far from being a mere name on the stock ticker it is a continuously evolving narrative one that merits close observation and Keen interest
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