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Yes, yes, and I think maybe people should divide them into two categories. If DAT is trading below its net asset value (NAV), you are buying the cryptocurrency at a discount. So, in a bull market, it's better to buy DAT, because if you don't want to pay, say, 85,000 for Bitcoin, you can buy it for 60,000, right?
Um, but those trading above NAV, and I'm sure all DATs will rise above NAV in this "bull" market, are releasing capital, buying more cryptocurrency, and removing supply. This dynamic will cause a huge price movement. I mean, one of the reasons for Hyperliquid's success is that DAT Hyperliquid owns 14% of the supply.
So, they continue to buy. What happens when they reach 50% of the offer? I mean, hype. Tom Lee just described a market mechanism that could change the way investors view cryptocurrencies. His argument seems simple at first glance . If a digital asset treasury is trading below the value of the crypto it holds, investors can purchase that asset at a discount.
If a company is trading above the value of its assets, it can raise more capital, buy more crypto, and remove additional supply from the market. This creates a feedback loop. The company is getting bigger, its crypto assets are growing, and the available supply is narrowing. Then the market starts to assign a higher rating to the Treasury itself.
Tom links this idea to Hyperliquid, where Treasury reportedly owns 14% of the offering. This number is already significant. His question : what happens if the ownership share continues to grow to 50%? This is the part that investors should study carefully. The Treasury strategy can create demand, but it also carries risks.
The company needs access to capital. The market must continue to value the stock or token high enough to support additional purchases, and the underlying asset must still attract new buyers. So, this is not a guaranteed path to higher prices. This is a market structure that can reinforce an existing trend.
Now, Tom’s broader thesis is that Ethereum could be at the center of this cycle as corporate treasuries accumulate ETH and institutions begin to increase their allocations. This brings us to the first specific data point in the interview. Bitmain says it has already surpassed the 6 million ETH mark.
Do you think we will reach $10,000 by the end of 2026? Well, I'm willing to bet on it because Arthur said so. Are you OK. That's it. Good. We will do that. Yeah, you probably won't be sitting here next year, right? I...but I, I wouldn't be surprised. I think this will be one of the biggest crypto cycles.
So, you know, I don't know if it's going to happen by the end of the year, but within the next 12 months, I think the price of ETH will be well above 10,000. Um, Arthur mentioned some slow aspects of the network. You know, Ethereum has had a bit of a bad reputation over the years for being one of the slower blockchains, even though it's one of the pioneers, right?
But I mean, in your opinion, you're obviously an optimist about Ethereum. Why do you think he fell a little behind or got such a reputation? Um, well, I think ETH was really meant to be a blockchain for everyone. But they have made many improvements. So I think that speed and usability—these issues have already been largely resolved.
And companies like ETH gas are really reducing block times. I would say that Ethereum, especially now, after the updates , is becoming much more commercial. Hmm, but I think that over the next 12-18 months all DApps, not just Bitmain, will significantly increase their cryptocurrency purchases. So I think cryptocurrencies with DApps will perform the best, as these DApps essentially buy cryptocurrency and take it out of circulation.
Ethereum-based DApps currently own a total of 7% of the supply. This is more than DApps for Bitcoin or Solana. And I would assume that in this "bullish" cycle this figure will reach 15%. Your savings goal seems to have been 5%. When you reach that point, will you stop buying? Um, well, we're not quite at the 5% mark yet.
We still need to buy 5%. When you reach 5%, will you stop buying after that? We have This is half. We haven't announced what we're going to do yet. OK. But do you want to report some news? Yes. But I think we have three priorities. You know, one of them is we want to maintain our maximum exposure to ETH.
Because , again, I think Arthur is conservative, because in past cycles Ethereum has grown from 50 to 200 times. So let's assume that ETH will increase 25 times. That's 62,000 ETH. I mean, Bitmain shareholders will make a ton of money simply because we hold ETH. We also conducted the largest share buyback in the crypto industry: 21 million shares for 350 million.
Yes. And this was done in July. We literally marked, we really hit rock bottom for Bitmain. That was the bottom for the stock, and within a month, you know, we actually almost doubled in price. And, uh, we have all these ambitious projects. I think in the next crypto cycle, when it comes to tokenization, AI, and computing, we have a great balance.
We could use this as leverage. This is where the Ethereum thesis becomes more important than the token's price chart. The volume describes potential changes in the way financial institutions operate. If tokenization allows banks to move assets, settle transactions, and create new financial products on public blockchains, the scale of the opportunity could be comparable to the size of the entire financial services sector.
This does not mean that every bank will suddenly move its balance to Ethereum. This means that incentives are changing. Private networks can control access, but controlled access does not automatically create deep liquidity. Public networks can connect more participants, markets, and applications in a single environment.
The advantage of Ethereum, according to Tom, is the existing network around it. It points to institutional projects , depth of development, and diversity of the staking base. These are different indicators, but they all relate to the same issue. Can the network support serious financial activity without being overly dependent on one company or one centralized operator?
Competitors can still strengthen their positions. Solana, Avalanche, and Canton are developing institutional use cases in different ways, but the competition is not only about transaction speed. It concerns developers, security, liquidity, distribution, and the number of institutions ready to work on this platform.
That's why the next part of Tom's answer is so important. He will argue that Ethereum's leadership is much harder to shake than a simple market share graph suggests . This could lead to parabolic growth, right? Tom, you said that institutions are still underweight cryptocurrencies ahead of Q4, which starts in a few days.
What is your model of what institutional crypto asset allocation in a balanced portfolio should look like next quarter? Many financial institutions already provide clear asset allocation guidelines, and they range from 2% to 10%. If you look at the Fundstrat institutional universe, it could be 5% or even 2%, meaning the vast majority of institutional investors don't own crypto assets.
And it was the best- performing asset in the third quarter by a huge margin. I mean, Ethereum is up 65%. The S&P index was almost unchanged. I think we will see a large-scale rotation in the fourth quarter. We previously talked about Ethereum's competitiveness. Many new competitors are emerging. We are seeing institutions starting to choose sides regarding the blockchains they will operate on.
Tell us about Ethereum's market share retention. What needs to be done to maintain market share, remain competitive, and maintain first-mover advantage? I'm not sure you asked the right question, because if you look at all the projects, whether it's JP Morgan or BlackRock, 99% of them are on Ethereum.
So, Ethereum has not lost any market share. I don't understand what you mean by "loss of share". In fact, I think they've increased it, because if tokenization is the next wave, then there's only one dominant blockchain. Yes, you mentioned tokenization. We talked to Ondo, we talked to Arca. This may be the next frontier in finance.
You have been working on Wall Street for many years and have relevant experience there. Is tokenization really a tipping point for cryptocurrencies in general? Is this what we were all going for? I think, from the point of view of financial institutions, this is really the next way to increase profits, because tokenization allows the bank not only to increase the efficiency of the entire organization, but also to transform existing assets.
This is a big opportunity for the banking world. Remember that half of the economy is financial services. So, literally half the world is moving to blockchain. This is a huge opportunity for cryptocurrencies. Again, banks tried to create private networks. This did not bring any real liquidity or success.
But those building on public blockchains like Ethereum have achieved significant results. Ugh. We're seeing a lot more adoption of permissionless public networks, are n't we? We've seen the SEC exempt innovation, allow trading on open networks in a " sandbox," and this has become a much more accepted practice among institutions, at least for experiments on such networks.
It will be interesting to see if this trend continues. That's right. Yes, I want to change the wording of this question a little. I mean, yes, Ethereum has the largest share, but competitors are already hot on our heels, we talk to various firms at conferences like this that are betting on Solana or Avalanche.
I think the question is how does Ethereum stay competitive and maintain leadership? Well, you know, any industry is competitive. So I think we should expect competition. First of all, crypto projects are competing not so much with each other as with traditional finance, right? And with traditional systems.
So to some extent, Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and even Canton are all working towards the same goal, and ultimately they will represent a new financial system. But if you look at the number of developers, it's not even comparable, right? Ethereum is probably about 20 times larger than the next largest level-one (L1) blockchain.
And if you look at the diversity of staking, which is actually the security of the network, it is incredibly diversified. There is no concentration there, but if you look at other L1s, one organization can provide 70% of security. So is a network where 70% of the security budget belongs to one entity truly decentralized, or is it centralized?
Therefore, I believe that at this point there is no other blockchain that is as competitive as Ethereum. Tom Lee's interview gives us three separate signals to watch for. First, digital asset treasuries could become a structural source of demand if companies continue to raise capital to buy and store crypto.
Second, institutions may still be underinvested, even after Ethereum's strong performance in Q3. Third, tokenization could create a long-term reason for financial institutions to use public blockchains, where Ethereum currently holds a leading position. But there are important conditions. The treasury model depends on market access and investor confidence.
Institutional capital allocation depends on risk control, regulation, and performance. Tokenization depends on real implementation, not just announcements. So, the main takeaway is not that ETH is guaranteed to reach $62,000 or that every crypto- treasury company will succeed. The conclusion is that Ethereum now has several potential demand drivers working simultaneously.
Accumulation in Treasuries can reduce the available supply. Institutional capital allocation can expand the buyer base. Tokenization can create new activity on the network. If these forces intersect during the overall crypto market cycle, the market could move faster than investors expect. Keep an eye on treasury assets.
Keep an eye on institutional allocation data. See which networks financial institutions use. And if this analysis helped you distinguish a loud headline from the real mechanism, subscribe to more serious analysis of the crypto market. There is a lot of unnecessary noise in this market . The advantage is knowing which numbers can really change the supply and demand equation.
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