저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
2016년 11월 디왈리 특집. 결론: 인도 증시는 6800에서 상승 후 조정 중이나 하락보다는 등락 횡보 후 2016~2017년 사이 신고가 가능성, 하반기 실적 개선 기대. 거시·국제 변수: 미국·유럽 금리가 소폭 오를 수 있으나 주식 매력 훼손은 제한적. 미국 인프라 투자(2.5조 달러) 및 유럽 재정 부양은 긍정 요인으로 제시. 유로존 리스크: 유로는 불안정한 통화이며 유로존 연합도 불안정하다고 보고, 국민투표 등 정치 리스크를 주시해야 한다고 언급. 미국 대선: 트럼프 당선 가능성은 낮다고 보며, 경제적 우려보다 핵버튼 관련 개인적 공포를 언급. 힐러리는 기존 체제 유지형 정치인으로 평가. 지수 레벨: 니프티 8000 이하 하락은 정상 상황에서 가능성 낮음. 1차 저항선 8500 제시. 최고 신고가 가능성은 2016~2017년 사이로 전망. 중소형주: 일부 세그먼트는 과대평가, 일부는 기회. 실적 기대가 과도하게 반영된 종목은 실적 발표 후 주가 상승이 제한될 수 있다고 경고. IT 섹터: 중소형 IT 지수가 10% 하락한 점을 언급했으나 본인은 해당 종목 보유 없음. IT 투자 기회는 있으나 아직 멀었다고 판단. 금: 장기적으로 매우 낙관적. 통화 평가절하·저금리·재정 화폐화 환경에서 자산의 5~10%를 금에 배분하는 것이 현명하다고 권고(본인은 직접 투자 안 함, 부인 보유). 국내 리스크: 파키스탄 핵무기 및 인도-파키스탄 관계 외 큰 국내 리스크 없음. 안정 정부와 양호한 몬순 언급. 개인 포트폴리오: 보유 종목 Lupin, Titan, Sizzling 실적 부진 아쉬움 언급 후 회복 기대. 신규 투자 계획은 자금 부족으로 없음, 기존 인프라 투자는 양호했다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Welcome back. You are watching our special Diwali conversation with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. Let's talk about the market, Rakesh. So, if I understand you correctly, you are saying that we are on the verge of the recovery that everyone is talking about, or the acceleration of the recovery that we have been waiting for for so long.
Are you saying that between this and next Diwali you would be surprised if we don't see significant growth or acceleration in earnings and therefore in the stock market? Yes, I feel that the market is currently consolidating after rising from the 6800 level to the current levels, maintaining an uptrend.
I don't think the markets will grow in a hurry. But they won't fall any lower. They will fluctuate around these values. And as events unfold, I expect better corporate earnings growth in the second half of the year. I think eventually the markets will take off. I also believe that international factors will play a role.
Here I think, you know, the world has been stimulated by monetary policy. I personally believe that interest rates in America could rise a little. But this will not reduce the attractiveness of investing in stocks worldwide. Interest rates will not rise rapidly . And I think there's a lot of talk about fiscal stimulus in the Western world right now.
And I believe that will happen. And I think this could become a " bullish" factor. They say America will spend $2.5 trillion on infrastructure, monetize it, and spend it over the next 10 years. I just read about this in an article by Chris Wood. Europe can do the same. So, this could be a positive factor.
The only thing, you know, I would like to keep in mind is the euro and the eurozone. Because I think that certain threats may come from there. You know, there will be a referendum, and, in fact , I believe that the euro is an unstable currency, and the union is unstable. So I would, you know, expect risks.
We must monitor this risk. You do not view the US elections as a significant risk to the market. You don't think this is an event that will significantly change the market. Do you think Donald Trump will become president? This is a joke. I think the American people are wise enough not to elect Donald Trump as president.
And you know, all this talk about his sexism and how he speaks about girls or other women — that's not okay. He is talking about his own daughter. Think about it, what kind of mother would tolerate it when a man speaks about his own daughter in a sexist tone? And do you think such a person could be president?
And when Hillary becomes president, she will be great at maintaining the status quo. She is a politician to the core . So you don't see this as a serious risk. So do you think that in the next few months, by the end of this calendar year, we have a chance to reach a new peak, or, since you assumed that this market will not grow rapidly, do you think it is unlikely that we will break the 9100 point mark in 2016 ?
No, but I think we will set a new record sometime between 2016 and 2017. And I'll tell you this: I'm not afraid of what will happen to the economy if Donald Trump becomes president. I'm more afraid that the " nuclear button" will be in his hands. I fear for my life, not my money, if he is elected president.
So, Rakesh, what is the " support level" of this market? Do you think that in the event of a correction caused by any of the factors you mentioned—Europe or rising interest rates in the US—will we see the Nifty index below 8,000 points in the near future or in the foreseeable future? Well, the foreseeable future is uncertain.
Under normal circumstances, they should not break this level. I think the first barrier is the 8500 mark itself. What about mid- caps, Rakesh? After all, it is known that you are primarily an investor in a mid- cap company. Your portfolio is full of them. Mid- cap companies have significantly outperformed the Sensex over the last 1-2 years.
Are you concerned that in some mid- cap segments, valuations are ahead of real fundamentals, or do you think this revaluation process is entirely justified? Well, they are valued in part because the public wants to play on stocks that are more speculative or volatile. Of course, there are segments with overestimation.
But there are also segments where there are opportunities. In addition, the prices of many stocks reflect expectations of perfect results. Therefore, it may happen that when the actual earnings reports come in, the stock price will not rise. You also own some shares in mid- cap IT companies. I don't want to discuss them specifically, but the IT index fell by 10% between the last and current Diwali holidays.
It is unusual for a sector like IT to perform much worse than the market as a whole. Do you feel that the market is too pessimistic, or is there something happening in the IT space that investors should be wary of? Well, I'll tell you this: I don't have any mid- cap IT stocks because I used to own Geometric, and it's being acquired by Airtel Tech.
Secondly, I believe that there will be an opportunity to invest in IT stocks. But I still think that's a long way off . What are you paying attention to now, Rakesh? I mean, in terms of adding sectors, trends or themes to your portfolio. You have a lot of financial assets. You have a lot of consumer sector companies.
Do you want to add infrastructure or capital investment as a topic now, or is it better to wait, because this is a decision that many are hesitant about? Is it too early to take this step, or should we act now before it's too late? Well, Udayan, I'm fully invested. And now , with age, I don't want to take any risks.
I'm not as risk-averse as I used to be. Is n't that right? And secondly, I have a lot of investments in infrastructure. I did well in all areas. Therefore, I am not planning any new investments for a simple reason: I have no money. If I make a little money from trading, then I'll think about it. You know, last Diwali, when we were chatting, we talked about how stocks had become the only option for local investors as real estate was not yielding returns and gold had lost its luster, but this year gold has risen significantly again.
But do you see this as a hidden bull market, given the global challenges, or do you think this year's gold success is just a short-term surge ? I am very optimistic about gold, although I do not invest in it myself. I mean, it would be prudent if every Indian held 5-10% of their wealth in gold. But you know, given the way countries are devaluing, currencies are devaluing, and also low interest rates, monetization, and now the monetization of fiscal policy ...
So I think a certain portion of your assets should be in gold. Although I don't invest in gold, my wife does . So, Rakesh, what is the main local risk right now? You mentioned that the euro is the biggest global risk in your opinion. What do you think is the biggest risk at the local level? I always say: Pakistani nuclear bomb.
There is nothing funny about this, because it is a nuclear weapon in the hands of a failed state . Maybe Indian- Pakistani relations, I don't see any other risks at the local level. We have a stable government, we have a good monsoon season. And what tops your list of resolutions for the period between this Diwali and the next?
I want to lose 10 kilograms. Is that all? And speaking of my portfolio, I'm hoping for better results this year. Because my three main investments didn't pay off: Lupin, Titan, and Sizzling. And do you expect changes this year? I hope so. These three. Yes, I hope so. Hope is something we all live by.
It doesn't matter. These three have brought you so much money, Rakesh. I don't think it's worth criticizing these three stocks for their low performance in one year. And I'm sure they will recover. So I wish you another great year, Rakesh, and try to lose those 10 kilos like you said. I'm sure you can do it if you put in the effort.
I don't think you've ever tried hard enough in that regard. But maybe this year you'll try. So I wish you luck with this. And I wish you even more luck with your decision to give away your fortune, as you said. It's still just an intention. I wish you great wealth, great success, and good health in the coming year. Thank you very much for your time, as always.
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