저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 금리는 예상보다 높고 오래 유지될 것이며, 주식시장은 이익 부풀리기 탓에 현실과 괴리가 크다. 금리 전망: 연방기금금리가 5.5% 수준에 머물 가능성이 크다고 봄. 합의(시장)가 금리 정점에 도달했다고 볼 때 반대편에 서는 것이 수익적이었다고 주장. 이익의 질: S&P500 기업들의 순이익(조정 후)과 영업현금흐름 간 격차가 1990년 이후 30여 년 중 가장 크다고 제시. 회계 기법으로 이익이 부풀려졌을 가능성 언급. 이익 침체론자 입장에서는 실적 조정 시 지수가 3000대 중반까지 하락할 수 있다는 시나리오가 제시되나 확실하지 않다고 본인도 인정. 가상자산: 비트코인 약 22,463달러, 이더리움 약 1,569달러 수준 보도 인용. 실버게이트 붕괴 여파는 확산이 제한적일 수 있으며, 매크로 데이터(중국 재개방)가 상승 내러티브를 뒷받침할 수 있다는 언급. 리서치 인용으로 비트코인 2만~1.8만달러 재테스트 가능성도 거론. 사회보장 및 소비: 생활비 조정(COLA)으로 연금 지급이 10~15% 늘어 소비 여력이 있다고 설명. 단일 지표로 소비를 판단하는 것은 위험하다고 봄. 기업 구조조정: 일론 머스크의 트위터식 대규모 감원 대비 대형 기업의 점진적 인원 감축이 현실적이라는 견해. 주식보상 규모는 수천억~1조 달러 이상으로 추정. 벤처 투자: 단기 국채(3개월물) 금리가 6.5%로 오르면서 벤처 투자자들이 장기 수익률 목표(20~25%)를 맞추기 위한 압박을 받을 것이라 주장. 500여 개 AI 스타트업에 자본이 몰려 상관관계 높은 과열 투자가 될 가능성 지적. AI 산업: 언어모델은 상품화되기 쉽고 독점 데이터가 핵심이라는 견해. 곡괭이·삽 공급자(반도체 실리콘 레이어, AMD·엔비디아)가 수혜를 입을 것으로 봄. 페이스북 등을 '화이트 트러플'(고유 데이터 보유 기업)로 지칭. 출연자 전망: 금리 장기 고점 유지, 이익 조정 리스크, 벤처 과열 및 반도체 인프라 우위.
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a governing principle I think I've probably said it too many times but I'll say it again rates are going to be higher than we like and they'll stay here longer than we want so if you use that as a principle whenever the consensus thinks we're done it's been pretty profitable to be on the other side of consensus and so I still kind of maintain that we're probably going to have a five and a half percent fed funds rate which means that I don't know maybe Credit Suisse will offer me seven and a half percent soon on three month T bills but we're going to have higher rates and I do think Brad's right though in the sense that as long as we know that then that's it and we can forecast it into the future without it changing too much it'll be okay but right now what you're seeing is a lot of Make-Believe going on in in the stock market so Nick if you want to just throw up that image so this is a really this is the chart of uh Cash Flow versus earnings yeah so this is something that I saw in Bloomberg which I thought was really interesting and if you focus on the period of 2020 to 2024 what you see is the white line which is net income adjusted for depreciation and amortization and the blue line is cash flows from operation so what does that mean and this is for uh S P 500 firms this is the best 500 companies in the world yeah and the white line is what you tell Wall Street in terms of what you make on paper the blue line is what actually appears in the bank account so why could there be a gap between what you tell somebody you made I made a dollar versus what's in the bank 50 cents well the reason is that there's all kinds of accounting tricks that you can use accruals inventories and all of these things allow you to present a healthier earnings report than is actually true and so right now we have the worst earning situation so the worst Gap between what we are telling people versus what is actually in the bank account that we've had for 30 years since 1990.
and so it just brings into Focus the fact that we may be in the last few innings of trying to make sure this all looks okay in which case one faction of the investing world who thinks that this earnings recession is actually at hand would be kind of right and then what they would say is that once we all realize that these earnings are fake and you reset down 15 that's where you get to the mid 3000 in in the S P 500 right now it's around four thousand I don't know if that's true or not but there's more and more evidence that would support that the way that they see the world could be credible the other side says Hey listen this is a bump in the road we're getting a handle on things and it's stabilizing so even though it's higher than we'd like it's not going to change that much so now just think about 10 and 15 years from now and let's go both Bitcoin and ether are starting the week off flat with the world's largest digital asset at 22 463 up 0.6 percent on day and ether at 1e 569 up 0.1 percent observers say that the market is at something of a precipice right now while it's no longer the depths of crypto winter the market has to decide how much it will continue to price in silvergate's crypto failure while also accounting for positive economic data from China hello and welcome to Money Talks in today's video shamath palihapitia gives us an update about the macro the recession fears inflation and interest rates stimulus is still entering the economy it's just harder to measure so for example take Social Security you have cost of living adjustments in Social Security that's lifting payments by 10 and 15 because it's backdated for what was going on last year and remember last year we had two three four five percent inflation rates so there is more and more money coming into people's pockets that we don't realize and we're all on the hook for that as U.S taxpayers so I think it's very dangerous to kind of look at one data point and try to pick off what's happening in consumer land because there's all kinds of hidden ways in which money gets back to people it doesn't look like the Silver Gate issue is leading to Broad contagion and we may have seen most of the drop associated with that news already Matt Weller forex.com's Global head of research told coindesk TV on Friday I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin retrace back down to twenty thousand dollars maybe even eighteen thousand dollars to sort of retest those lows but it does look like the depths of the winter are behind us I don't think that's a reasonable or an achievable goal for a public company okay I mean I think the thing we have to keep in mind is elon's also capable of doing that because he paid 44 billion dollars of his own money to buy something that he owns alt right that no longer has Revenue pressure to outside stakeholders different circumstance Revenue went down seventy percent at Twitter well that only affects him and and his ability to pay whatever he borrowed in order to buy that company and as long as he's willing to fund that somehow he's literally allowed to do whatever he wants that's no longer the case when you're borrowing money from other people to build your business which is what every other Capital Market participant does public market participant does and private Market participants so I think that that distinction is just a little bit important because it probably means that there is a shadow of what Elon is doing that's probably the threshold of what's possible and it's probably you know sort of 50 headcount reduction that's probably the the Bound in which things break because I think the thing to keep in mind is that over time this stuff is like collagen in the body it's just like it creates these interconnected webs of just very difficult stuff that you send you that you cannot tease apart blockages so even if you try to go in and cut 50 of a company like Facebook or Google or Microsoft or apple or Amazon it would be so difficult because all of a sudden the coordination that happens at that scale I think would get lost so I'm not sure if it's possible you kind of have to do what they're doing which is cut five percent then cut ten percent then cut five percent then cut five percent and I know it frustrates people on the outside looking in but I think it's the it's probably the only way it can be done without torpedoing the company what's on a culture basis then because that is the big critique hey you're creating now this culture of fear I guess the opposite of that is your Korean and culture of performance and expectation so how do you think about it on a culture basis because that keeps coming up from Founders to David's point it depends because I think companies when they're smaller I mean I can tell you when I was a part of the Facebook senior management team we would rank all the employees so we had a very good sense of who was the best and the most performant all the way down to who was not and we were able to do that probably up to two or three thousand employees that's not possible at fifty thousand and nor is it fair so because you don't know who these folks are the real contributors are you have to do what Elon did which is literally go person to person and say who is unbelievably performant or critical yeah in the absence of doing that you just don't know who to let go and so you have no choice except to bleed down the question that I have and Brad maybe there's a smart analyst on your team that can do it as well and it's more of a statement as well can you imagine the totality of stock based conf that's been given out by all these companies since 2015 when they were catering their employee bases by 25 a year I bet you it's a trillion and a half dollars at least you think it's that you think it's in that order magnitude at the same time economic data from a reopened China which rapidly dropped all coveted restrictions at the start of the Year might bolster the China narrative that fueled late February's Mini price rally this coming week is set to be a busy one with economic data releases from the country with balance of trade foreign exchange reserves and inflation rate data expected the incentives are this Charlie Munger says show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome I posted it into our group chat Credit Suisse sent all their private banking customers an offer they are now offering 6.5 for a three-month t-bill 6.5 percent and if you go back to what we talked about before when the risk-free rate is somewhere north of five or five and a half percent and banks are willing to give you six and a half percent in the short term you have to generate more than three times that to make an investment make sense when you're investing in the long term so if three month money is going to pay you six and a half or seven if you're going to invest for 10 15 years which is what you need to do typically for a startup we need to get 20 to 25 percent so there's going to be a lot of pressure for Venture investors to put the money to work because otherwise their LPS they're limited partners the people that give them the money will have this attitude that goes somewhere along the following lines okay I've committed to you why aren't you investing because otherwise I can get paid six and a half percent on the front end and so this is becoming very problematic what am I paying you for what am I paying you two percent a year in management fee for so I think what happens unfortunately is the opposite of what Doug says I think good investors will try to follow Doug's feedback and advice and the ones that have a track record of distributions of DPI can do more of it than not but I think most people will be under pressure to deploy the capital and so the 500 odd companies Jason you mentioned we'll get a lot of it and it'll get torched because most of them probably won't amount to much of anything in the short term you will create way too much correlation and you will have zero time diversity which as we've learned is a recipe for terrible returns we haven't given enough time for a logical framework of investing to develop which also is tied to a logical framework for entrepreneurship to emerge we're just way way way too early so the thing with all of these language models is that they are Grist for the mill and we talked about this before if it was a highly proprietary asset you would have never sold 49 of it to Microsoft for 10 billion dollars because you would assume that it was worth a trillion dollars so it's a huge tell on the part of openai their deep understanding and they understand it better than anybody else that it's a bit of a capped upside so what is uncapped I guess is maybe the better question well if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush as an example the people panning for gold in my opinion are the people building language models today they're going to come and they're going to go but who's going to win well the pick and shovel providers won Levi Strauss one so what is the equivalent of that today I think it's at the Silicon layer because you need to really re-architect how compute will actually work in a world of all of these models those folks will get paid if you look at AMD and Nvidia they've been getting paid for years they continue to get paid they probably will continue to get paid even more and so folks that actually take a step into doing something hard and difficult in AI like custom silicon could get rewarded and then there's what I call the white truffles what are these unique Alba white truffles these singular sources of data that when used in reinforcement learning make your output just zing and that's where I think Facebook is an obvious white truffle Cora is a white truffle but there are a lot of startups that could become white truffles if they gather enough data and that's like a pretty reasonable framework and so in that framework if you apply to today there's way few silicon startups and there's way few white truffles instead it's everything is the bologna in the middle which is random people talking about some random model that's just gonna again become highly commoditized you have to remember all these models are open source then none of them mean anything in the absence of the data you give it to train on so what are your thoughts about shamath's prediction tell us in the comments also don't forget to like And subscribe see you soon with the next video thank you so much for watching thank you
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