저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Powell 연설 이후 금리 인상 사이클 말미 인식이 시장을 밀어 올렸으나, 1~2년 전 2018년 말처럼 단기적으로 상승(고통스러운 상승 흐름)이 이어질 가능성이 크다는 진단. 단기 조정이 아닌 추세 반등 가능성을 봤다. 세금손실 회피 매도 후 재매수, 체계적(알고리즘/ETF) 매수 루프가 주가를 밀어 올리고 있으며, 테슬라는 30일 만에 약 2배 상승한 과열 상태라고 지적. 4분기 S&P500 실적은 1% 미만만 컨센서스를 상회해 2020년 3분기 이후 첫 연간 이익 감소 가능성이 있으나, 이는 주가 방향과 별개로 다뤄짐. 벤저민 그레이엄 모델(위험무위험금리×2의 역수로 PER 상한) 적용 시 S&P500 PER 22배는 약 50% 고평가 수준이라는 밸류에이션 경고. 금리가 0%가 아닌 환경에서는 적자 스타트업 투자 매력이 줄어든다는 구조적 논지. 비트코인: 2023년 1월 약 40% 상승, 일부 알트코인은 300% 이상 상승. 다만 VC의 디지털자산 투자는 1월 90% 감소. 비트코인 2만 달러 지지선 근처 횡보 전망 인용. 장기적으로 긴축기 + 기술 혁신 결합 시 대형 기업 탄생 가능성이 높다는 역사적 분석, 스타트업 투자 호재 가능성 언급.
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I watched Powell's speech and it was really amazing because in December he was extremely hawkish and he was basically like listen we're going to keep rates higher than you like and longer than you want and that was pretty clear and the markets reacted and then not but 35 40 days later he essentially said we have two 25 basis point hikes left to go and he's going to try to stick the landing essentially and even though the rest of the language in his entire speech and the press conference if you read it in the absence of his body language so if you just read the transcript would seem very hawkish as well but the reality was he basically capitulated and then the market essentially said okay we're at the end of this thing and we've talked about this before but markets tend to bottom six to nine months before it's clear that you could have done this and so we're a little bit Off to the Races in the short term it's compounded by a couple of other factors one is that at the end of last year so many people were tax loss harvesting which means if you had some gains somewhere else you sold some things that were losing money so that you could net the two together you saw a lot of stocks Tesla was probably the poster child for this trade all the way down to like 108 dollars a share and it's effectively doubled in the last 30 days right so everybody tax loss harvested everybody degrossed nobody was really owning anything and then when Powell basically said we're mostly done there's been so much systematic buying right now that nobody's really well positioned to me this is very similar and yearly reminiscent of the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
and if you guys remember at the end of 2018 October November December the markets just fell and part of it was Powell's going to raise rates inflation's getting out of control et cetera Etc and then we got all this data that said China may be entering a real period of malaise and power capitulated again trying to stick the landing and long story short he didn't that was a head fake and the markets just ripped higher then we went into the covet pandemic and all that stuff happened so I think we're about to replay a little bit of that at least in the next 30 to 90 days the pain trade is to go up so that's probably where we're going major digital asset prices traded flat over the weekend with Bitcoin down 1.7 percent and ether in the red 2.3 percent over the weekend after a mediocre start to earnings season investors are thought to be looking ahead to Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday afternoon before making any big moves hello and welcome to Money Talks in today's video chamath palihapitia gives us updates about the macro picture of a 0.25 raise in interest rates and the impact on Mega cap company creation so we have a period now which is disinflationary but the problem is if the stock market keeps going up and all of a sudden we have less restrictive monetary conditions then we're going to be back at the same place we were before which is money sloshing around into all kinds of risky assets or more money you know there's still an enormous amount of money sitting on the sidelines that has to come into the market now if this thing keeps going higher so we're in a delicate moment and if we reignite inflation because all of a sudden more companies have more liquidity that they can tap right more money they can raise more money as a result that they can spend because we don't have this first inflationary cycle under control there could be a risk that that we reignite inflation and so then then they have to capitulate the fat has to capitulate again and start another hiking cycle so I think it's a complicated moment I think all of the smart money in Wall Street that I talked to up until this point they forecasted like this period would be choppy and the second half of the year would be really robust and like you needed to be super long and things were going to be incredible and when I talked to them this week they're like oh God we weren't positioned for this we had no risk going into this we're going to be forced buyers there's a bunch of companies that are Whispering that they want to go public now oh really the big banks have been calling around trying to book build quietly for some IPOs and so if they try to kind of crack this Capital markets open I think there's again the marginal risk will be that data shows that less than one percent of the companies in the S P 500 reported earnings that were above estimates this is below the five-year average of 8.6 percent and the 10-year average of 6.4 percent as a result the earnings decline for the fourth quarter is larger today compared to the end of last week and compared to the end of the quarter fact sets senior earnings analyst John Butters wrote in a Friday market update if the index reports an actual decline in earnings for Q4 2022 it will Mark the first year over year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2020 and what does this mean to crypto prices looking forward Joe di Pasquale CEO of crypto fund manager Bible Capital wrote in a note to coindesk that crypto markets are optimistic after a modest rate increase and Bitcoin will oscillate around the dollar 20K support level for the next few months barring other unforeseen events and Market action the thing that we have to think about is like most of the market are not people right most of the market are computers and algorithms and ETFs it's an extremely formulaic buying model do you have components of an index those represent certain percentages you have to own those percentages to be relevant as that index and so it's this reinforced buying loop as well as a reinforced selling Loop right so when things start moving those folks have to just systematically move money in all the humans know that so the humans tend to front run all the computers and they basically are the ones that sell into these guys and then that's what inflates these prices it's similarly on the way down humans try to front run it by being short into that stuff so we could see the capital markets open even if we don't it's actually the worst scenario because now you have all this money going into a fewer number of names that sort of explains Facebook has doubled in in 30 to 60 days yeah it was about Tesla has doubled in 30 you know 30 60 days a lot of the tech stocks like high beta stocks that we are all you know helping to build those companies have just absolutely ripped 60 to 100 percent these are not healthy and normal moves and so the question is what happens if inflation somehow all of a sudden pokes itself back up if you listen to Buffett Buffett's teacher this guy Ben Graham in Ben Graham's book the way that he would look at a stock and obviously look things have changed but the way that he would look at a stock is he would look at that risk-free rate he would double it and then the inverse of that is the maximum price to earnings ratio that he would pay for a stock right that's the trade-off is if you can get more than two times the risk-free rate then it's worth owning a company what that means is that if if you take three and a half percent as a terminal rate the right PE is around 14 for the S P 500 right now the S P 500 trades at 22 times PE which would mean that we are 50 over value now that again that's a Benjamin Graham model and I think the world has pretty cleanly moved away from it but there's probably some rooting in that intellectual framework that's still valuable and to your point David it just reinforces that man we need to start to learn a new regime here because when rates are not zero there is just a lot of excess that you can't support because the alternative trade-offs for investors are plentiful you know and plowing money into a money losing startup becomes less attractive Bitcoin and many altcoin categories had a fantastic January with the world's largest digital asset Rising 40 on month some metaverse tokens Making triple digit gains and layer 1s like aptos's apt Rising by over 300 percent some of the more bullish takes even predict Bitcoin hitting forty five thousand dollars by Christmas but despite these data points indicating that crypto winter is thawing VC's investment in digital asset and blockchain projects fell 90 in January according to a recent coindesk report we did a little analysis over here and it was just basically looking back 60 years of company formation we looked at all of the 100 most valuable public company startups and we indexed that to the 10-year interest rate so what are we looking at here chamoth with this church so basically we went back from 1960 onwards so basically you know 63 years and what this shows you is the hundred most valuable public technology companies then the size of the circle here is their market cap and then it's overlaid on top of the 10-year interest rate as well as gray bars for recessions so what is this graphic meant to illustrate well it just was for us to study is there a correlation between the value of companies and what the interest rates were what the economy was doing at the time and to your point Jason the trend is pretty starkly made on this chart which is that if you were a company that was founded in a period of austerity you had the ability in general to build a much larger company than that which was founded in a period of wealth and excess right so when you look at when rates were sort of approaching zero or were zero there was a lot of really successful companies that are listed here in the in the light gray on the right but none of those things really represent the success that these other companies had that's the first interesting takeaway the second interesting takeaway though from this has nothing to do with rates per se but it is that when rates intersect with the emergence of huge technology Trends so in the case of the 1970s it was the PC revolution in the case of the late 1990s it was the internet Revolution those two things which required enormous progress in both physical infrastructure so atoms as well as software infrastructure bits when you put those two things together those also created big companies and so if you add that all up the point is that whenever you see huge tectonic shifts in technology combined with periods of austerity that's when the gargantuan dollars are made so in the 1970s companies like Microsoft and Apple from the get-go had to be profitable right and in the absence of one very important round of financing that Amazon was able to close the next big wad of companies were founded again in Rising rates where they just had to get profitable or find a way to be positive free cash flow or have positive working capital faster than anybody else so these are like really interesting trends that I think just say that as rates creep back up and if we can intersect that with some improvements in technology over the next five to ten years that we've all talked about it could be a real Boon for startups and startup investing so is it a good time to invest in Bitcoin tell us in the comments also don't forget to like And subscribe see you soon with the next video thank you so much for watching thank you
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