저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인 기대가 커지고 금리 피크 후 성장주(특히 혁신 성장주) 반등이 올 것이라고 본다. 비트코인 현물 ETF: SEC의 정보 요청에 응답했고 승인 가능성에 대한 기대가 높아지고 있다. 여러 비트코인 ETF가 동시에 승인될 수 있으며, 블랙록 등 다수 신청사 중 ARK가 최종 마감(1월 10일) 기준 선두라고 언급. 금리·채권: 금리 상승 우려로 현금 이동이 있었고 최근 채권으로도 자금이 이동 중. 인플레이션 둔화와 경기 순환적 침체가 진행되면 채권이 랠리할 것이며, 이후 성장주 전반, 특히 장기 듀레이션 혁신 성장 자산의 반등이 나올 것으로 본다. 소비 및 종목: 소비 둔화 신호(도미노피자 프로모션 확대, LVMH 등 실적 언급)를 주시 중이라고 함. 테슬라: 5년 투자 시계에서 테슬라 상방 서프라이즈가 엔비디아보다 클 것으로 전망. 자율주행 택시 플랫폼이 핵심이며 매출·마진 확대(현재 매출총이익률 20%대 → 60~70%대 전망) 가능. 자율주행을 세계 최대 AI 프로젝트로 평가. 엔비디아: 인프라 핵심 기업이며 좋은 주식이라고 평가. 하드웨어 1달러당 소프트웨어 약 20배 파급 효과 주장. 구글/AI: 챗GPT가 구글에 기회일 수도, 광고 사업을 잠식하는 위협일 수도 있다며 방향은 불확실하다고 봄. 비트코인 가격: 급등(하루 11%)과 일시적 급락 등 변동성 언급. 가격 전망 수치는 명시되지 않음. 리스크: 허위 정보로 인한 변동성, 승인 지연 가능성, 금리 경로 불확실성.
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it was uh publicized and disclosed uh I think it was last week that um we had responded to uh SC the sec's requests for information around our our uh Bitcoin filing uh and we responded and that's basically all we can say uh I think many people think the fact that the FED uh I mean the fed the SEC um chose to ask questions is a change of behavior uh and therefore I do think hopes are rising that a or a number of Bitcoin ETFs will be approved I do believe uh uh maybe the reason they're saying by the end of the year early next year I know our final deadline on this filing is January 10th and so and I think we're first in line but as you say uh uh a number of uh a number of bet Bitcoin ETFs uh could be approved at the same time I think there are a couple of things going on um if you'll remember in late 20 and early 21 the flows were enormous into our funds and uh you know I was I was uncomfortable at the time uh uh because we thought there was a lot of momentum uh chasing going on and and we said at that time keep some powder dry little did we know how how how big the correction would be uh this is sort of the flip side of bad uh we're feeling much more comfortable right now uh but we did have uh through July a very significant uh rally I do think there's been some profit taking there uh and I do think as you say interest rates Rising rates have concerned a lot of people there's been a shift into cash and we've seen very recently a shift into uh into bonds uh and interestingly the flows into bonds would suggest that we should not be far behind because if bonds are going to rally and we think they will at some point here as inflation continues to come down as the economy continues to go through rolling recessions of sorts uh we think that the uh the backdrop will be right for a Resurgence in grow stocks generally uh and in particular long duration Innovation growth assets like ours let's Dive Right In with a major warning from the US Securities and Exchange Commission they took to social media to set the record straight after a roller coaster of misinformation in the crypto sphere they cautioned careful what you read on the internet the best source of information about the SEC is the SEC ouch what caused this drama you ask well it all started with an inaccurate report claiming the SEC had given the green light for a black rock Bitcoin ATF a media Outlet cointelegraph published this news and social media ran with it but here's the kick folks Black Rock swiftly debunked these rumors stating that their ETF application was still under review cor graph in a bit of a misstep initially reported this unverified information is fact but then they later revised their article to add the word reportedly the damage was already done though readers were not amused and had a field day with criticism and memes calling out journalistic Integrity the report and the frenzy it calls contributed to roughly $82.5 million in crypto liquidations within 20 4 hours ouch again here's the big question crypto fans could these episodes of misinformation hurt Bitcoin ETF approval chances it's a vital concern such false alarms led to a wild ride for bitcoin's Price surging to nearly $30,000 before taking an 8% no dive some crypto observers argue this kind of thing could give the SEC more reasons to say no to bitcoin ative applications but hold on to your hats it's not all bad news Bloomberg analysts remain surprised surprisingly optimistic giving a 90% probability of a spot Bitcoin EF approval by January 10 2024 fingers crossed shifting gears Bitcoin had a wild day it surged a Hopping 11% in one day it was significant jump we've seen in a while the price hit $9,975 45.1 billion making up over 50% of the entire crypto market cap it's not quite back to its all time high of nearly $669,000 but it's a step in the right direction oh but the drama didn't stop there Black Rock CEO Larry fin weighed in on the situation during an interview on Fox Business he said it's just an example of the pent up interest in crypto he believes the rally was a flight to Quality with more people seeking refuge in assets like Bitcoin during uncertain times let's continue our discussion with Kathy Wood if we if we if we're paying attention to company earnings and some of these uh our companies were exposed to others not um you'll see at both the highend and the low end of the consumer uh Spectrum in terms of price points uh you've got dominoes saying hey it's really weak out there we've got to do more promotional activity and you've got lvmh same thing both of those happened last week we're paying attention to company reports and I understand the economic statistics are are volatile and showing uh strength and then weakness uh we're paying ATT attention to our companies and it does seem like the consumer is starting to give way here we see inidia uh you might say it is less expensive than Tesla we think the upside surprises on Tesla during the next five years remember we have a fiveyear investment time Horizon are going to be substantially more than nvidias uh mostly because most analysts do not believe that autonomous uh as a taxi platform for for Tesla is going to be a part of the story we disagree and with that we see incredible revenue and margin expansion Vine's margins are already quite High having entered the 70s the gross margins uh Teslas are in the 20s and we think they will scale into the 60s and 70s as autonomous takes off uh so uh Tesla we believe is the biggest AI project or autonomous uh driving is the biggest AI project in the world Nvidia has been critical to providing the infrastructure to enable this and so many other things to happen all all uh praises to Invidia uh we think that a lot of people understand how important Nvidia is in this ecosystem and they do not understand how uh how much each dollar of Hardware spent is going to pull uh software through we think it's on the order of uh 20 times uh so we think Nvidia is going to be a good stock we think the stocks in our portfolio we've written a paper on uh on uh artificial intelligence uh it's titled investing in artificial intelligence where will Equity value surface uh you can read that on uh ar- funds.com and see how we're really good diversification into this AI World many think that the winners are going to be uh the the megatech uh companies uh who have uh had such strong performance over the years we are not sure we are not sure uh uh chat gbt could be the best thing that ever happened to Google and that it lit a fire under Google to get its own AI um uh into the market uh more profoundly or it could be the worst thing in that uh it's going to lose its advertising franchise if we're all just on at chat GPT looking for our answers so thank you have it folks another day in the crypto World filled with ups and downs misinformation and a rallying Bitcoin stay tuned for more thrilling stories and crypto updates and remember keep those cryptos safe and your wits about you in this ever exciting space thanks for tuning in to crypto Chronicles until next time k
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