저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 미국의 통화 팽창과 공급 부족으로 인플레이션이 이미 시작됐고 장기적으로 달러 붕괴와 금 중심 통화질서 복귀를 주장한다. 인플레이션 진단: 물가 상승은 일시적이 아니며 이미 시작됐다고 본다. 인플레이션의 본질은 물가가 아니라 통화량 팽창이며, 미국은 역사상 가장 팽창적인 통화정책을 시행 중이라고 주장한다. 공급 측 문제: 연준이 새로 찍은 돈이 풀리는 반면, 실업수당 등으로 집에 머무는 사람이 늘어 생산 감소로 상품이 줄어든다. 돈은 늘고 물건은 줄어 물가가 크게 오를 수밖에 없다는 논리다. 초과저축과 수요 급증: 미국 가계 초과저축 약 1.6조 달러가 경제 재개방 후 지출될 경우 수요 폭발이 나타날 것으로 본다. 다만 저축은 정부 지원금에서 나온 것이며 아직 다 쓰이지 않았다고 설명한다. 임대료·모기지 유예로 현금을 쌓아두는 효과도 언급한다. 부채와 금리 함정: 옐런 재무장관이 과거 부채를 문제 삼았던 점을 들며, 현재 공공부채는 GDP 100% 이상이다. 저금리 덕분에 이자 부담이 감당 가능하다는 논리는 금리 상승 시 위험하다고 본다. 연준은 금리를 올리면 정부를 파산시키므로 인플레이션을 억제하기 어렵다는 딜레마를 제기한다. 달러와 금: 달러는 금 태환 없는 순수 명목화폐 기축통화이며, 달러 신뢰 상실 시 유로·엔이 대체하기 어렵다고 본다. 결국 금이 주요 중앙은행의 핵심 준비자산으로 복귀할 것이라고 주장한다. 대상 자산 예측: 명시적으로 1~3개월 가격 방향을 예측한 대상 자산 발언은 없다. 장기적으로 금 선호 및 달러 약세 취지의 견해만 있어 금은 장기 상승 관점으로 기록한다. 미국채금리는 금리 상승 위험을 언급했으나 구체적 방향 예측은 없어 제외한다.
다듬은 글
what do you use to make your assessment to figure out what the real rate of inflation is and you say we're headed for tsunami of inflation when i mean that is the big question peter when yeah well to not in my mind i think it's already started i mean you could look at some of these price increases and they're very spectacular and uh you know they're just starting to work their way through the system and again i don't think we're transitioning uh or it's transitory unless you're saying we're transitioning from low inflation to high inflation which is uh really what's happening but what you want to look at to understand inflation is you look at the money supply because it's the money supply that is was being inflated i mean literally that's where the word comes from inflation is to expand you inflate right when something is inflated it expands prices don't expand they go up they go down but they don't expand it's money supply that expands and we have the most expansionary monetary policy in u.s history and no other era is even close to what we're doing right now so this is massive inflation and so to expect that prices are not going to respond by rising is is ridiculous but then you also have to look at the supply side of the equation because as the federal reserve is dumping all this newly printed money onto the economy there's actually less stuff for people to buy because more and more people who used to be engaged in productive activities whether they were producing goods or providing services a lot of these people are now sitting at home collecting uh these government checks so we're creating more money to buy goods but we're producing fewer goods to buy and so how could prices not go way up i mean anybody who doesn't think that price will go way up i mean just not only don't they understand basic economics they just don't even have any common sense well you know peter to your point a lot of people sitting at home collecting unemployment benefits that paid them a lot better than their actual jobs and of course we've also got uh the highest excess savings in u.s households that we've ever had there's about 1.6 trillion dollars in excess savings u.s savings at multi-year highs so what happens when the economy is fully opened and all of that pent-up demand is released i mean to your point more money chasing fewer goods so is that when you expect the surge when we have full economic opening yeah you remember a lot of this money that people have saved was sent to them by the government it's not like they earned more money and just didn't spend some of their increased earnings the government just handed out this money and yes a lot of people haven't been able to spend it yet because they haven't got out of the house and so they have bought a lot of goods that's why our trade deficits in merchandise are at all-time record highs so unemployed americans have been able to shop on amazon and buy you know products made in china but there's still a lot of other money that they haven't spent yet that was provided to them by the government and also we don't know to what extent are americans not paying their rent not paying their mortgages because of these moratoriums and instead they're just holding on to the cash so uh who knows right because if you're told by your landlord we can't evict you if you don't pay your rent well why pay it i mean i can live here for free and so people could be accumulating this cash because they're not paying some of their bills but yes eventually all of this hoarded cash is going to be spent and if we're not producing more goods and services for the money to be spent on then all it could do is bid up the prices on the goods and services that already exist so in this scenario which you've described before i mean you're calling for an unprecedented economic disaster following this unprecedented stimulus both in the u.s and globally but what does that look like peter describe that in all the vivid ugly details i don't know if i could describe it if it hasn't happened yet i mean we can look at other countries and how uh you know they've dealt with these problems but we're in a situation where we have so much debt and in fact um um janet yellen was asked a question today i was watching her in a q a right and the the the person questioning her said hey you know when you were fed chair you did warn that we had too much debt and here you are now as a secretary of the treasury we have a lot more doubt i think it was 70 of gdp when she said it was a problem and now it's over a hundred percent and that's just debt held by the public not total debt right the question was are you know why aren't you worried anymore about the debt and you know her answer to that question was that well interest rates are really low and the reason it's not a problem is because the rates are so low and so servicing the debt is not that big a burden given how low rates are but it's unfortunate that the senator who asked her that question didn't follow up with a better question what happens when interest rates go up i mean isn't it reckless and irresponsible to say we can afford all this debt because temporarily we have these low rates of interest knowing that the national debt is financed mostly with short-term paper and the government has to constantly roll over these t-bills and you know they're going to get the prevailing rate well if you have this huge amount of debt and the only reason there's not a crisis is because interest rates are low what happens if they're not low what happens if interest rates are high and i think that's the box the federal reserve is in because the federal reserve knows the only thing between the u.s government and default or insolvency is artificially low interest rates so if the federal reserve knows if it raises interest rates it bankrupts the government how is the federal reserve going to fight inflation because if this pickup in inflation is not transitory and obviously the longer the fed right waits to acknowledge it's not trans transitory the bigger the inflation problem becomes and so if inflation is at five or six or seven percent officially by the five time the fed realizes that it wasn't transitory how does it fight that inflation without bankrupting the u.s government the answer is it can't so my thinking is if it can't fight inflation without bankrupting the us government it won't fight the inflation which means it bankrupts the u.s public because it destroys the value of the dollar what happens when and if the global economy loses faith in the dollar what takes over as the global reserve currency or what becomes the default then well first of all before the dollar was the reserve currency all those other currencies that you mentioned were backed by gold i mean they weren't just fiat i mean the dollar is the first currency in history to achieve that status as pure fiat currency right so there's no real money behind it and and so what i think is going to happen in a world where no central banks currently issue legitimate currency right legitimate currency would be currency backed by gold real money that is the situation that the world was in before the dollar and in fact when the dollar originally became the world's reserve currency it was backed by gold in fact it was redeemable in gold on demand i don't think the dollar ever would have gotten that status in the first place but for the tie to gold and dollars were basically or federal reserve notes for really ious for dollars and the dollars were gold that's what a the dollar was it was a weight of gold and so in today where nobody is actually issuing any legitimate currency where every central bank has just got fiat i think that when the dollar is no longer the main reserve for all those fiat currencies uh they're not just going to pick another fiat currency to replace the dollar it wouldn't make any sense to just go to the euro or to go to the yen because at the end of the day they're just paper too i think the dollar's demise is going to introduce the remonetization of gold not that it was ever demonetized by central banks because central banks all hold gold to some degree but i think gold is going to replace the dollar as the primary reserve asset for all central banks you
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