저자: BillGross · 외국인
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결론: 트럼프 정책은 단기적으로 주식에 우호적이고 채권에는 불리하다고 보나, 반보호무역·강달러 리스크로 장기 성장과 기업 이익에 부담이 될 수 있어 채권 투자는 신중해야 한다. 트럼프 정책 평가: 감세, 규제 완화, 재정 부양은 성장에 도움이 되지만 성장률 4%는 과도하고 2% 안팎이 현실적이라고 봤다. 반세계화·보호무역 아이디어는 교역을 제한해 기업 이익을 훼손할 수 있다고 우려했다. 달러 및 제조업: 선거 이후 달러가 4.1% 상승해 수출 기업과 제조업을 압박하는 부정적 요인이다. 다만 10월 공장 주문은 2.7% 늘어 1년 반 만에 가장 큰 증가폭을 보였다. 채권 시장: 채권 가격은 상대적으로 낮고 금리는 상승해 과거보다 매력이 높다고 봤다. 10년물 금리 2.4%는 기술적 저항선이며, 연준이 금리를 더 올리면 이 수준이 유지되며 안정될 수 있다고 전망했다. 다만 채권 시장에서는 '빨간색이 새로운 초록'이라며 경계를 강조했다. 보유 비중은 하이일드 약 24%, 투자등급 약 24%를 언급했다. 주식 시장: 해외 자금 본국 회귀로 내년 수천억 달러 규모의 주식 시장 지지 요인이 있을 수 있다고 봤다. 러셀2000과 다우지수가 사상 최고치에 근접한 상황에 대해서는 신고가 자체는 긍정적이지만 일부 버블 조짐에 우려를 표했다. 출연자 전망: 채권은 가격 매력이 있으나 리스크 관리가 필요하며, 주식은 성장과 이익 회복에 따라 추가 상승 여지가 있다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Janice Bond Guru Bill gross has this widely read note that he comes out with every couple of weeks so a new one is out and he is taking the Long View on president-elect Donald Trump's agenda and here's a quote from it there's no doubt that many aspects of Trump's agenda are good for stocks and bad for bonds near term tax cuts deregulation fiscal stimulus Etc but longer term investors must consider the negatives of Trump's anti-globalization ideas which may restrict trade and negatively affect corpor profits on TV he concludes Orange is the New Black yet in the markets red in some cases may be the new green when applied to Future investment returns be careful stay out of jail Bill gross fund manager of Janice UNC constraint Global bond fund joins us now Bill the last time you were on we got a lot of tweets and people say get them off you know these are Trump supporters certainly uh do you clearly feel the same way are you doubling down on what you feel are dangers in the Trump economy and why No I um you know I've always felt that some aspects of of Trump's potential policies are are stimulative for the economy I've been dubious in in terms of the uh extent and the level of of positives uh you know his potential treasury secretary says that they're looking for 4% real growth I I I think it's a 2% number or maybe a 2% plus number I think tax will help I think deregulation will help I think fiscal stimulus will help but I do think that there are negatives with anti-globalization trade types of ideas and a and a strong dollar we know the dollar is strong and we know that that's not a positive for exporting in terms of Corporations so there's one certain negative thing that we've seen in the past two weeks but there's some positives too okay well the the Dollar by the way is up 4.1% since the election uh so that is certainly muscled up and that does hem in some manufacturing activity although I'd like to mention that we got you Factory orders for the month of October says rear view looking but up 2.7% uh that's the biggest increase in 1 and A2 years and the dollar continues to be stronger against the Euro the pound the Canadian dollar Etc on your screen but look we're told to buy low sell High the one thing that's really low right now is in your Bailey Wick and that's Bonds are there bonds that you're buying I know you have about 24% in high yield 24% in investment grade but what do you like here that isn't overpriced well the the the the prices are are relatively low the yields are increasing and are higher than they used to be so that's good you know the question becomes um on a 10year treasury for instance um you know what's the appropriate level of a 10year treasury now at 2.4% If the Fed starts to raise interest rates which they will next we 2.39% right now right and continues to raise fed funds next year because of a stronger economy and Rising inflation um you know I I think the 10-year is appropriately priced at the moment it's on a technical ledge on a long-term uh yield downtrend and 240 is that level so you know I think it stabilizes for a while but beware in terms of the bond market you know that red might be the new green and red of course is a negative sign as opposed to a positive one stocks um you know which depend on growth and and earnings and the repatriation of money from overseas that'll add perhaps or300 billion dollar worth of support to the stock market next year um you know there's more positives there but uh certainly from the bond side and even high yield bonds I think uh Red's the new green well uh we've got some green on the screen as we finish up with you uh Russell and the Dow look to close in record territory um does this concern you or excite you well um yeah record territory is always uh wonderful it means that prices have never been higher but uh there's a little Bubblicious type of aspect of some of these things and I I wonder
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