저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 3분기 실적은 매우 훌륭하며 애널리스트들은 틀려온 탓에 솔직히 밸류에이션을 설명하지 못하면 차라리 입을 닫아야 한다는 취지의 영상. 실적 평가: 재무가 깔끔하고 매출·이익이 개선됐으며 3분기 흑자(규제 크레딧 포함 논란)와 매출 기록 경신(87.7억 달러, 전분기 대비 약 40% 증가)을 강조. 생산·수요 전망: 기가베를린·기가텍사스 증설로 향후 1~3년 내 생산 급증 전망, 베를린 공장만 연 200만 대 가능성 언급, 트럭·사이버트럭 주문 60만 대 이상 언급. 규제 크레딧 논란: 규제 크레딧 매출이 없었다면 적자였을 것이라는 비판에 대해 다른 업체도 받는 경기 규칙의 일부라며 반박. 밸류에이션: 주가 430달러, 시총 약 4,050억 달러로 폭스바겐·다임러·BMW·GM·페라리·포드·혼다·현대차 합계와 비슷하다고 언급, 변동성 가능성 경고. 애널리스트 평가: 포드 등 목표가 상향 사례를 들며 늦은 상향을 조롱, 틀린 분석을 반복하는 애널리스트들에게 불확실성은 솔직히 밝히라고 조언. 미디어 내러티브: 1년 사이 테슬라 부정론에서 긍정론으로 180도 바뀌었다고 평가하며 언론 톤이 투자심리에 영향을 준다고 지적. 리스크: 밸류에이션 부담과 높은 변동성, 규제 크레딧 의존 논쟁 존재. 출연자 전망: 테슬라가 향후 10년 내 신차 대부분을 전기차로 만들고 내연기관 업체 다수가 파산할 것이며 테슬라가 지배적 위치를 차지할 것이라 전망.
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i i thought that this was uh a really fantastic quarter you have the analysts who don't know what to do they really don't because they've been wrong david they've been so wrong that it's better just to say you know what i i never really understood the valuation but i i do think the company's a pretty good company as far as the zev credits the simple fact is this tesla is eating their competitors lunch and they're making them pay for it that's a pretty cool trick here we are once again discussing tesla's record blowout amazing incredible mind-blowing q3 results now as many of you guys and girls will be aware jim cramer has an enormous audience and a huge amount of influence especially among mum and dad retail investors in the united states so his opinion carries with it a huge amount of weight jim is over the moon with tesla's q3 results so in this video i'm going to share a few clips of his responses and some more of the mainstream finance media coverage around tesla's q3 results i'll add a few thoughts and comments where i think it's relevant woul use the link in the description to weeble and deposit a hundred dollars in your account each of these stocks will be a minimum of eight dollars in value so if you suck at math that is a sixteen percent roi on a hundred bucks not bad eak also using a link in the description let's get back to it i thought that this was a really fantastic quarter a couple reasons one is is that if you look at the financials of tesla they are as clean as can be and i could argue that this company is doing incredibly well the conference call was a conference call that reminds me of uh people who just want to tell the truth straight as can be elon musk i'm not saying he's restrained or he's in a straitjacket but uh what a terrific conference call it's very hard to think uh negatively about this company i know that there are people who talk obviously valuation but there are a couple upgrades today uh and i think they have they can't fight it it's the the reason why they can't fight it is because when everything works it's very difficult to argue what the price should be because right now this company is doing incredibly well uh and if they make as many cars as they say what you're going to say is you know what i know that it sells at a gigantic priced earnings mall price to multiple whatever but david when i read through the tesla notes what i what i read are analysts who are just saying you know what i can't fight it anymore i have to like it yeah i did notice one of those fashionably late yeah this is a good title yeah beard upgrading to outperform i mean fashionably look at the move in that stock at this point i'm not sure you want to weigh in and say you're out you're upgrading now that's that's pretty embarrassing is it just me or has the tone really changed in the last 6 12 months on cnbs i mean david literally just said that it's embarrassing to be an analyst now who's finally coming to the party going oh hey guys i just upgraded desert stock i finally get it now look at me i finally get it yeah now don't get me wrong here it's definitely better late than never shout out gordon johnson but it really does seem like the tone has changed in the mainstream finance media at least on one of these networks a couple of years ago people were mocking tesla left right and center they had short shills bears clowns dingbats morons and plenty of stuff in between very few people having a reasonable discussion about tesla they couldn't get past a quarterly loss or next quarter or next week now suddenly people are seeing the big picture and realizing the inevitability of what tesla's going to do now i don't want to labor the point but it really does matter what's being said on the mainstream finance media networks regarding tesla this affects widespread sentiment and that causes people to make decisions such as buying or selling securities so this really does matter the mainstream finance media narrative has done a 180 in the span of 12 months from tesla sucks they're going bankrupt stay away to nobody's catching tesla rip legacy auto but jim when you get to the metrics that you're looking at to try to determine what a price should be granted if this company is operating extraordinarily well i still wonder what is an appropriate multiple i mean they still largely are i mean again you argue they're a technology company that's what i thought you have to i mean this morning there are two price target bumps for ford now i happen to think ford's doing extremely well because they decided to not lose as much money as they used to oh jim cramer what a savage i mean i like it but wow we're talking about uh uh jp morgan going from seven to nine barclays eight to nine but you know what david these are companies that are bound by the conventional four walls of the spreadsheet people are not going to give ford any of the credit because they don't like this whole model i had mr fisker on last night and basically what those guys do is make a car okay and it sells because it's great looking and that's what i feel about elon musk he makes cars but he's fully integrated uh the cars he do 500 whatever he sells whatever he makes he's going to sell there's no dealer network and now he's starting to say the same thing in china so what you see is a frictionless model so you have the analysts who don't know what to do they really don't because they've been wrong david they've been so wrong that it's better just to say you know what i i never really understood the valuation but i i do think the company's a pretty good company this is a great point from jim as many of us know so many analysts have been so wrong for so long however i beg to differ just marginally in terms of jim's suggestion to these analysts of just going well i don't know what the [ __ ] going on i never have but hey i like the company i would much rather these analysts who don't know what the [ __ ] going on with tesla and again this isn't to disparage them this is just some genuine well-meaning advice is to just shut the [ __ ] up again this isn't like coming from a place of hate or anger i just literally mean shut the [ __ ] up until you know what you're talking about then talk or preface your analysis your price targets etc with i've been completely wrong the entire time i still don't know what the [ __ ] i'm talking about but here's what i think because if analysts are going out there and being so incredibly embarrassingly wrong about a company for so long they lose credibility it's better to explain you don't know what you're talking about but here's what you think or just don't talk i mean am i crazy like do you guys agree let me know in the comments should an analyst who doesn't have a high level of confidence in their analysis just not provide it or explain that they don't have a high level of confidence i think that's probably a good way to operate because you're less likely to get roasted on a random youtube video that way just saying and that's where these people are coming down it's amazing i can't think of another place time i've ever seen it no really no that is a massive call from kramer to suggest remember this guy has been in the stock game for decades ran his own hedge fund i mean you don't need me to explain who kramer is the fact that he of all of the companies and stocks he's ever looked at has never seen anything like the disconnect between endless consensus around tesla and the reality is huge i mean we're a company is where a ceo is masterful where a company has done amazing things and uh what the financials no longer see remember all the short sellers require you say the financials are phone you take a little good move this is that yes you know carl i know the credits matter but what really matters i think with tesla's is that uh it's flawless flawless execution even in the time of covet they ended up doing everything right um and carl i i just read it and i think if this word tech company it deserves to sell exactly where it's selling just give me a quick take your quick take on sort of this quarter and how it fits into what we've been seeing lately from tesla uh they are much more consistent about turning a profit david and i know there will be some people who will say well look without the zero emission vehicle credits that they received from other companies who bought them from tesla so they could offset their uh their carbon uh emissions standards that they weren't meeting whether it's in europe or the us or wherever that doesn't matter that's part of the game and you shouldn't hold that against tesla fact of the matter is it was a fifth profitable quarter now going forward which stood out and especially during the conference call they talked about this they're going to be ramping up production giga berlin and gigatexas that's the plant that's being built in austin they'll start production late next year it's not going to be big volume but this is this period here david where we see over the next year to two years to three years where you're going to see big ramp up in production from tesla going to be demand for that ramp up in production uh they believe there will be now remember you've got the tesla semi the question becomes how many uh companies are going to say yeah we do want that electric semi coming out of the gigafactory in texas the cyber truck we've talked about that and then berlin i definitely think there's going to be demand there i mean europe is a market where electric vehicles there is demand and as countries are mandating you need electric vehicles there you will see that uh definitely take off there's definitely no question over demand there's just a question over people's ability to infer future demand based on the economics of electric vehicles i mean i guess we'll just have to wait and see for the doubters out there but i'm telling you guys now 10 years time the majority of new vehicles being produced will be electric most of the companies that used to produce internal combustion in your vehicles will be bankrupt tesla will be dominating and hopefully there's a few other players that are chasing tesla in a distant second third fourth and fifth remember the berlin gigafactory alone will ultimately ramp to two million vehicles per year yes tesla has confirmed this two million vehicles per year just from the berlin gigafactory things are just getting started phil i've got to know what you what your take is on the sale of these regulatory credits four quarters in a row in which they would not have turned a profit without them but so much of the demand picture seems to overshadow that it does overshadow that uh and i guess the thing that i come back to is everyone says well they wouldn't be profitable without that but that is part of the game here and it's in the auto industry i never hear anybody say you know this particular automaker had to spend x hundred million dollars for zev credits so they didn't they don't get dinged for their sales in europe why is it never on the other end it's only with regard to tesla i understand that people say strictly looking at the operations they would not have turned a profit but they are continuing to grow their sales their gross margins improved substantially i think generally speaking the zev credits to a certain extent it's a bit overplayed by those who are do not believe in the tesla story or who want to discredit them turning a profit i completely agree with bill on this point i've covered it many times in the past the regulatory credits are part of the competitive landscape they're available tesla has big brains managing their money they go oh we can get some credits we can factor that revenue in we can use some of that money to expand our production reduce our costs invest in new equipment instead of pleasing morons who think that we can't make a profit without those regulatory credits and actually i don't really think these people are morons honestly i think they're pretty smart individuals just trying to fiddle and play with their numbers and spin things for a bearish narrative because maybe they're short maybe they're a paid oil shield maybe they just want to see elon musk fail because it'll make them feel better about their life just saying steve we know you've been a believer in the tesla story for some time um i mean this year has of course been incredible as we've watched the stock price move up as we said over 400 percent but from here steve do you really think there's more even given the success of the company that can be done or do you need to believe that tesla as many say is more than a car company look there are a couple points here first you just have to stop and acknowledge tesla's killed it this is a spending quarter uh sold uh you know 139 000 vehicles they're on track to 500 000 vehicles when elon musk said they were gonna hit 500 000.
that sounded like a pipe dream now they're doing it second record quarter 8.77 billion dollars just so people understand that's a forty percent uptick from just last quarter so they're doing bringing all these new products to market by the way not just the semi cyber truck in the wings over six hundred thousand orders and to me most interestingly a 25 000 car that could be two two and a half years out that is when you start seeing tesla being the number one selling car in the country electric or gas that is a massive call from steve but i think he's onto something just picture this two two and a half three years into the future tesla has a 25 000 electric vehicle with autopilot full autonomy available as an option or a subscription as well how does anyone compete with that they don't so i think there is some headroom but you gotta pause here for a minute and take a breath and say at 430 bucks a share 405 billion dollar market cap and i love tesla but that means the tesla is valued as highly as volkswagen daimler bmw general motors ferrari ford honda and hyundai all put together so look i think there could be some turbulent times here by the way as far as the zev credits the simple fact is this tesla is eating their competitors lunch and they're making them pay for it that's a pretty cool trick what a great point to wrap this video up on i mean just brilliantly articulated whether or not you think tesla can't make a profit with or without regulatory credits how about we flip the script and just consider this fact the companies that are attempting to catch up to tesla currently are paying tesla to get further ahead because said companies can't build electric vehicles fast enough because they're so far behind what else can i say eble and steak using the links below open a new weeble account deposit 100 and stay spin the roulette wheel you'll either get nike gopro or dropbox
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