저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라를 로봇·AI·에너지저장 등 다중 분야 기업으로 보며 장기 보유 입장을 유지하고, 월가 애널리스트들의 테슬라 평가 실패를 비판한다. 핵심 주장: 자동차 애널리스트는 테슬라 분석에 부적합하며 로보틱스·에너지저장·AI·SaaS 분석가가 필요하다는 주장. 테슬라 평가: 시가총액 약 4000억 달러 수준이며 주요 지수에 편입되지 않은 점을 문제로 지적. 2020년 이전 수천 달러 목표가가 조롱받았으나 주가가 1년 내 10배 상승했다고 언급. 투자 기간·기준: ARK의 투자 시계는 5년, 종목 편입 최소 연 복리 수익률 목표는 15%(5년 기준 약 2배). ARK 운용 방식: 변동성 구간에서 유동성 공급자로서 단기 매매를 활용하며, 2018년 테슬라 매매로 약 175bp, 2019년 약 200bp의 수익 기여를 주장. 매도는 투자 논리 변경이 아니라 비중 한도(10%) 조정이라고 설명. 출연자 전망: 테슬라가 미국 자율주행 택시 네트워크에서 선두(폴 포지션)이며, 자율주행 해법을 한 지역에서 풀면 다른 국가로 데이터 전이가 가능한지가 핵심 변수라고 봄. 발언자 본인: 3년간 여윳돈이 생길 때마다 테슬라 주식만 매수했으며, 현재 주가가 수년 전보다 약 10배 비싸도 추가 매수 의사를 밝힘. 리스크·조건: 혁신 종목은 변동성이 크고 작은 차질에도 급락할 수 있다고 언급. 영상 후반 광고성 링크(계좌 개설 보상) 포함. 비교 종목: 엔비디아, 텐센트 등 AI·반도체 관련 투자 논리를 간접 언급. 특정 자산 가격 목표는 테슬라 장기 상승 기대 외 구체적 수치 없음.
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tesla you have auto manufacturers i mean auto analysts following them right absolutely the wrong analyst you need robotics analysts you need energy storage analysts you need artificial intelligence analysts you need software as a service analyst over-the-air software updates you need all of those the auto analysts are not equipped to analyze tesla and they're very good at what they do uh it's just that tesla and ev's autonomous evs are not what they do we want our companies to invest aggressively now the more they aggress invest now the better shot they have of capturing the lion's share of whatever market they're going after because so many of these exponential growth opportunities are powered by artificial intelligence and the companies with the the largest amount of data and the best data and and and the best understanding of how to label the data uh are going to win today i'm reacting to a few clips from a fantastic interview with kathy wood of arc and best by the breakdown there's a link in the description to the full interview it's a wide-ranging conversation including some discussion around bitcoin but in this video i'm just going to focus on the tesla-centric content so let's see what kathy had to say but first hey guys if you live in the u.s and woul use the link in the description to weeble and deposit a hundred dollars in your account each of these stocks will be a minimum of eight dollars in value so if you suck at math that is a 16 roi on 100 bucks not bad eak i mean tesla is the poster child there it's shocking you know that uh that at 400 billion-ish uh in market cap uh it's still in not in an index it's kind of crazy it's it's nuts kind of absurd to think about isn't it tesla's worth nearly half a trillion dollars and none of the indexes out there actually capture ownership in this company like what's going on guys your index is broken research departments are not set up this way in fact what you see in research departments or what you would see is and you probably do see when it comes to tesla is um tesla you have auto manufacturers i mean auto analyst following them right absolutely the wrong analyst you need robotics analysts you need energy storage analysts you need artificial intelligence analysts you need software as a service analyst over-the-air software updates you need all of those the auto analysts are not equipped to analyze tesla and yet i i don't know this for sure but my guess is they are fighting to keep control of tesla you know it's a big stock it's a big market cap now they can't pull the trigger and put a buy on it but they want to cover it but they can't cover it and they're very good at what they do uh it's just that uh tesla and ev's autonomous evs are not what they do oh burn from kathy but i completely agree i've said many times on this channel far less politely that the wall street analysts on average have absolutely no idea what they're looking at when they look at tesla and try to analyze the company and talk about the stock that's why they've missed the mark on tesla stock so consistently for so many years meanwhile crazy people like kathy are out in the media a few years ago talking about multi thousand dollar price targets getting laughed out of the room next minute tesla stock 10 x's in the span of less than a year and everyone's like hang on a minute let's upgrade our price target even though we don't know why we're doing that yep and let's keep upgrading it while the stock keeps going up even though we don't know why we're doing that and yeah we'll just keep keep upgrading as the stock goes up because we still don't know what we're doing because we're not capable of analyzing this stock because we're not qualified we think it's a car maker it is not so you see the disconnect in the market and why there are so why the inefficiencies in terms of valuations are so large it's because of that dynamic where did this conviction start to come from what has reinforced it over time so and you asked and i did not answer completely the um analyst question how we put our research out there so our analysts uh uh have i they have domain expertise for the most part in the new new world one foot in the new world why because they've just been educated uh in crisper gene editing and have experimented it with it themselves or they've worked in the industry i mentioned uh james wang coming from nvidia well nvidia is the a.i chip company james already had a a a wide network in that space it has grown even wider because of how we do our research first principles is okay what is an autonomous vehicle that tasha tasha sam korres who follows battery uh technology and robotics tasha and james wang who follows artificial intelligence the three of them work on that model together so think about that very collaborative no turf no turf fights in fact we're all trying to seek the truth that's that's our mission this is why i love arc invest so much and why for many years i entrusted them with some of my cash actually invested in the arc w and rq funds and until recently i had to sell because i was buying tesla big dip no cash what are you going to do but for a couple of years i own those stocks well those funds and they performed phenomenally well i didn't just wake up one morning and decide i'm going to buy the arc ones i came across them came across their research saw their thinking realized were on the same page and they were thinking about the same things and effectively the funds they built were like a scaled down version of the portfolio i wanted to build myself so i thought you know what save a bit of time i'll just buy the arc once performed phenomenally well just imagine gathering a group of the world's best chefs and then asking them to perform neurosurgery or they might be masters of their domain capable of inducing mouthgasms with their culinary delights they're probably not going to know how to perform surgery on a human brain this is kind of what's going on in wall street most of the analysts that are on tesla are not capable of doing the job i'm sure they're very smart at other things but they're not qualified for tesla they're like a chef trying to perform neurosurgery and they're pretty much killing the patient they've been so wrong it's embarrassing and everybody saw our trades they're beginning to understand that uh we are lying in wait for misperception and controversy to visit a stock and we will buy so we are a liquidity provider in the marketplace that's why we don't mind being transparent with our disclosing our stocks at the end of every day or our holdings and our trades at the end of every day because if a stock is getting beaten up by some short-term thinking uh um we are usually there picking it up and we don't mind company when it's down 20 30 percent you know this transparency is another reason to really love what arc do i highly recommend you guys and girls go and sign up for their daily trade alerts just to see what's going on as a good learning tool now just keep in mind though for example if they have a buying limit of 10 on a stock meaning they can't buy more than 10 percent of one fund in one single stock they can hold that stock for a little bit longer write out some growth but at some point they'll actually trim that position down to 10 or less so often you'll see ark selling a stock that's gone on a really strong run in terms of growth in price recently only to buy again later when it dips back up to that 10 mark so don't be fooled don't misinterpret and don't project or invent meaning where there is none if are selling a stock it doesn't mean their investment thesis has changed it means there's an opportunity to trade around the volatility and the taking advantage of that or it means that a position they bought up has now exceeded their buying limit and they need to trim back down we want our companies to invest aggressively now the more they aggress invest now the better shot they have of capturing the lion's share of whatever market they're going after because so many of these exponential growth opportunities are powered by artificial intelligence and the companies with the the largest amount of data and the best data and and and the best understanding of how to label the data uh are going to win full self driving anyone and so these are winner take most and if we're on the right horse as i think we are just to go back to your tesla or our tesla um uh i think they're in the poll position for the autonomous taxi network of in the united states and we're even surprised in china at how well they're competing against the uh chinese incumbents uh and we're trying to figure out wow could they get a piece of that autonomous action as well that would be that would multiply the opportunity many fold where we are right now i'm really fascinated to see how this race to soul full self driving plays out i mean i have absolutely no question that tesla has won but the big question now is how much have they won does being first to solve autonomy in the united states mean they totally dominate that market when it takes all and the other question i have is just how generalized is this solution going to be those of you who understand what tesla's doing with full self-driving understand that they're trying to solve it at a general level but the big question is if they solve it in one region whether it's china the united states or somewhere else first how easily transferable will that data be in terms of solving the problem in a different country with slightly different road rules slightly different roads slightly different signage etc i'd love to know what you guys think below let's just say that tesla solves autonomy in country a if they transfer that solution across to country b how much of the way there are they to solving full autonomy in this new country are they 50 90 95 99 like what percent do you think of course it's all pure speculation but hey the wisdom of crowds has something in it so you never know so our investment time horizon is five years and the minimum hurdle rate of return for any stock to get into our portfolio is a a compound annual return of 15 so that's a doubling over five years that's our minimum hurdle so when we see short-term trading um if you watch our trading you'll see we are as i said before a liquidity provider will be very opportunistic around it uh and just to give you an idea of how productive that can be if you look at just tesla let's just take tesla in 2018 which was a down year for the market uh take away tesla's performance which actually was up for the year but take that away and just look at the contribution to return that our trading uh accounted for in 2018 it was 175 basis points in a down market uh and i believe in 2019 it was roughly 200 basis points right so in a market where many think we're we and as we're seeing from the s p 500 we're up five six percent for the year in the s p 500.
if you can get one stock like a tesla and we do this for all of our stocks to deliver you know 175 to 200 basis points just because of wild trading you know that's that's uh that's nice alpha generation right if alpha is a portfolio that does not trade around opportunities compared to one that does trade around opportunities i mean it's pretty hard to argue with arcs returns some of their funds over the past five years have put on 200 250 percent others more than 400 returns in a five-year period incredible results i mean you really can't argue with those and the reason that arc has been so successful in my opinion is because they're investing in disruption and innovation stuff that is surprising that is volatile that out of nowhere suddenly can provide a huge explosion of growth at the same time a small change a bit of flood a setback can cause things to tumble now i'm personally a buy and hold investor i don't have the time or the energy or the brain power or the research team to even try to trade around volatility like arc but the results speak for themselves as many of you know tesla is by far my largest stockholding and arc investors can say the same among their funds their biggest position is tesla stock we invest in a different style but for the same reasons in this company disruption and innovation the thing about disruption is if you don't pay very close attention and simultaneously know what to look for it's very easy to miss what's going on that's why there's a few folks like myself and ark and others out there who notice and see and are talking about this huge disruption that's happening it's still early days that's why we see so much future potential in tesla stock versus a lot of the mainstream finance media and wall street analysts who are scratching their heads and talking about the fact that tesla's only selling half a million cars a year how on earth can they possibly be valued this way when you hear those kind of comments around tesla it is a dead giveaway the person asking the questions simply cannot see the disruptions happening before their very eyes what are you gonna do the way i like to think about it is if i can see something that you can't see i have more information and by its very definition that means i can make a more informed decision and when it comes to investing in companies in stocks etc i only act when i believe that i have more information than the wider market and that's why i continue to invest heavily in tesla stock today even though i'm paying about 10 times as much to buy tesla stock now as when i first began investing a few years ago because i personally believe that i have more information than the wider market still i'm seeing things inevitable disruption and change that most of the market still is completely oblivious to it's no accident that tesla stock is the only stock i have purchased for the last three years every time i had spare cash i bought tesla stock this wasn't because i was just hoping to get lucky because i was looking at the stock and seeing what was going on and looking out into the future and seeing that an evil disruption taking place and being like uh guys uh do you not see what i'm saying well okay well i'm just gonna keep buying the stock i mean it's pretty much why i started the youtube channel to be like um guys guys guys and a massive shout out to everyone over at arc invest you guys and girls do a fantastic job to everyone watching if you want to learn more about disruption innovation etc i highly recommend you head over to the arc and best website and check out some of their research eble and steak using the links below open a new weeble account stay spin the roulette wheel you'll either get nike gopro or dropbox
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