저자: TomLee/RaoulPal—제목기준,소속은자막내명시없음 · 외국인
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비트코인·이더리움이 긴축 우려와 고유가, 클래러티법 교착에도 상승 중이라는 점을 강조. Tom Lee는 클래러티법을 1934년 SEC 설립에 빗대며 규제 명확화가 기관 채택을 촉진할 것으로 봄. Raoul Pal은 AI 지수적 발전으로 2030년경 경제 특이점이 올 수 있다고 주장하며 금융시장이 가장 먼저 재편될 것으로 봄. 자막상 방향성 자산 매매 지시는 불명확함.
다듬은 글
Cryptocurrencies are doing something almost no one expected. Bitcoin and Ethereum are rising even as the market fears a hawkish Federal Reserve, high oil prices, and stalled cryptocurrency legislation in Washington. Tom Lee believes this resilience could suggest something important to investors. Ethereum is gaining ground on Bitcoin, as cryptocurrencies continue to rise despite conditions that would normally put pressure on risky assets.
At the same time, Lee says the United States is approaching what could be a pivotal regulatory momelready moving toward tokenized assets and stablecoin payment networks, while other countries are moving forward with their own regulatory frameworks. But Raoul Pal believes that something much bigger is happening underneath the market.
He argues that the world has entered the exponential era, where computing and artificial intelligence are advancing faster than governments, institutions, and societies can adapt. What appears to be chaos today may actually be the construction of an entirely new economic system. By around 2030, Pal believes we could reach an economic singularity in which AI becomes the dominant source of computation, autonomous agents increasingly manage economic activity, and financial markets become one of the first industries to be transformed.
In this video, we explore Tom Lee and Raoul Pal's latest outlook, why cryptocurrencies are surging despite strong headwinds, how regul, and why the convergence of crypto, AI, and digital finance could make the coming years unlike anything investors have experienced before. find the videos useful, get started.
The Clarity Act creates a national body to govern cryptocurrencies in the United States. So, a single entity that will be the CFTC. This is an important issue because, as you know, large banks and asset managers are tokenizing assets and want to build stablecoin networks; If they were to be subject to state regulations or local regulators, many would reconsider.
But are they for or against? Many asset managers are in favor. Charles Schwab, Franklin Templeton for digital currency. Because this is a...and I apologize if I do n't remember the exact years. I believe the SEC was created in 1934, I think, about. This is a similar moment to 1934. And the reason the SEC was created is because, with state regulators, you could have one rule in Indiana and another in Virginia, and investors would say, "I can't handle both of these rules." Bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies are having that 1934-like moment, right?
Exactly. Furthermore, since cryptocurrencies turn money into software, many things can be turned into money. Loyalty points, reputation. So we need a governing body to oversee all of this. Now, Japan, Russia, and Europe are actually passing laws similar to the Clarity Act. So the United States risks being left behind.
That's why I think cryptocurrencies are picking up again: they're being welcomed outside the US . You say you really think that...Look, they had what? Only a few legislative days left before the midterm elections . Do you think this might be a lame duck move? Well, I think there are still many people who are hopeful that something can be proposed.
But it seems that many concessions have been made. However , those who oppose the bill still want to achieve something else. And so, anything can happen. Tom Lee believes cryptocurrencies are approaching a regulatory tipping point that could change an entire market. His comparison is striking. He calls the Clarity Act a potential “1934” moment, referring to when federal securities regulation replaced a confusing set of state rules with a clearer national framework .
That argument has become even more relevant. The Senate is now moving the Clarity Act toward a key procedural vote after its August summer recess. If passed , the bill would establish the first comprehensive federal regulation for digital assets, defining when tokens are securities or commodities and clarifying which regulators oversee them.
do not want to build tokenized markets based on regulatory uncertainty. Lee's point is that clearer rules could give banks and asset managers more confidence to expand tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure. Regulators are already moving in that direction. In March, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission issued joint guidance clarifying how federal securities laws apply to certain cryptoassets.
The Clarity Act still faces political hurdles, so passage is not guaranteed, but the direction is hard to ignore. Cryptocurrencies are getting closer to having rules that large institutions can effectively build upon, which could transform regulatory clarity from a long-standing obstacle to one of the biggest catalysts for institutional adoption worldwide.
I think, you know, prediction markets and funds want to hedge on a binary event. That's why you have that 30%, because someone has to cover something. Mhm. But I would say the probability is low. I mean , I wouldn't expect them to raise rates. And what about any future time? As you know, they'll have to wait and see how the data evolves.
So, I think it's a question of state dependency , but also data responsiveness. For us, I think the underlying inflation momentum has weakened, as the housing sector is very weak, and we will see that tomorrow with the Case-Shiller index. And if wages aren't under pressure, then the real underlying inflation channel we're seeing now is just tariffs and oil, which is n't necessarily where the Fed needs to start a rate hike.
I don't want to use the forbidden word " transient", let's say they are potentially temporary. Right? Yes. And oil is falling right now because of some talks, and anyway, it could go back up tomorrow. We have no idea what will happen, it depends on the negotiations. But the point is that if and when there is some sort of lasting peace, oil will likely start falling again.
The market seems to want to push lower. This must influence the Fed's thinking. Yes, because then they just have to deal with this little bubble that they have to somehow manage. I mean , I think in some ways they could just shrink the balance sheet instead of changing interest rates. A quantitative tightening?
Exact. Yes, I think that's a better way to gauge what they might say, which is, "Hey, let's try to put pressure on growth, but without deliberately slowing the economy down." The price of cryptocurrencies is not following people's expectations, who say, " Hey, the Fed might be hawkish, so crypto should go down." Oil prices are high, cryptocurrencies should fall.
And of course, the AI sector remains robust, yet cryptocurrencies are actually rising. The relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin has increased, even as the Clarity Act appears to be stalled. You know, the odds of approval this year have dropped to around 30%. Tom Lee notices something unusual happening beneath the surface of the market.
Normally, fears of high interest rates, persistent inflation, and expensive oil would create a challenging environment for cryptocurrencies, yet Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown resilience, and Lee believes that strength deserves attention. The latest data makes his thesis even more interesting. After a weak July jobs report , traders reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 40%, down from around 55% before the report.
The Federal Reserve still faces an inflation problem, with officials divided over whether tighter policy is needed, but cryptocurrencies have already shown they can advance before the macroeconomic framework is perfect. By late July, Ethereum was outperforming Bitcoin, with the Ethereum-to- Bitcoin ratio reaching its highest level in about three months.
Lee described this relative strength as evidence that cryptocurrency prices were strengthening, even as the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 diminished. This is the bullish signal. If cryptocurrencies can rally while investors are still debating rate hikes, inflation, and regulatory delays, imagine what would happen if those pressures began to ease.
And this leads directly to a much bigger question. While the current financial system is already changing, Raoul Pal believes that the technological system underlying the entire economy is changing even faster worldwide. And if you want to anticipate offers cryptocurrency . It's all part of the same system.
The exponential era is also part of it. So, the operating system has always been running, but for billions of years it has operated at biological speed. Suddenly, he's running at digital speed. Everything is going faster and faster. And that was the process of the exponential era that I talked about, where suddenly all technologies became exponential.
So what we're finding now is that the output of computation and intelligence is accelerating faster than institutions, regulations, and social structures can absorb it. This is where everything seems like chaos. Because everything is just moving too fast. And the old system does n't seem to work within it anymore, and we can't understand anything about it.
It looks like destruction, but it isn't. It's construction. The new system is being rebuilt. Think of it as the fourth turning point, the greatest fourth turning point of all time. Old applications are recycled into new ones. The same thing happens at every phase transition in the operating system. So, we see it everywhere.
We even see it in geopolitics. We see this with the social order. We see it everywhere, we can't handle what's happening. Humanity is unable to cope with the speed of computation, which runs faster than us and significantly faster than our institutions. That thing is the exponential era. Computing power has just increased and the world is moving faster and faster, everything has become exponential.
Raoul Pal believes that the chaos surrounding markets, technology, and society is not proof that the system is breaking down. Instead, he argues that it is proof that a new system is being built at a speed that humans and institutions are struggling to assimilate. At the heart of this transformation is computing power.
Artificial intelligence is advancing rapidly, while enormous amounts of capital continue to flow into the infrastructure needed to power it. Reuters recently reported that major technology companies, including Microsoft , Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet, have collectively committed about $1.09 trillion in future lease payments primarily related to data centers.
This scale demonstrates how aggressively companies are positioning themselves for an intelligence-driven economy. Raoul calls it the exponential era. His thesis is that technological progress has moved from the speed of the biological clock to that of the digital clock, leaving traditional regulations and institutions struggling to keep pace.
What appears destructive may actually represent a massive reconstruction of the economic system. For cryptocurrency investors, this is important because digital assets were designed for an increasingly digital economy. Blockchain networks can move value programmatically and operate continuously, features that become more important as the software becomes more autonomous.
And this is where Raoul's thesis becomes even broader: if AI continues to accelerate, the next phase might not just change markets, but who actually participates in them. The economic singularity is the moment when AI surpasses human intelligence as the primary computing power. You know, I've set 2030 as the date for this event.
That seems right to me. The operating system is starting to organize itself around AI instead of around us , the rise of the agent economy, for example. So, it's happened before. It happened when multicellular organisms emerged and individual cells did not disappear, they became components of something larger.
You see, we are all built on top of each other, and humans play a major role in the computation we have within this process. So even though the pinnacle has been replaced continuously, it doesn't disappear, and this is a fundamental belief of mine: we are all part of this beautiful process and we are not being replaced just because AI is coming.
We are just what made AI possible, and our qualia are special in its own right , because they give us a special kind of computational ability. But when you get to the economic singularity, as it is now built around this accelerating technology , things like GDP accelerate beyond anything we have modeled.
Economic structures collapse. The economic structures built for humans become obsolete and everything starts to operate according to this agent economy that maximizes intelligence per unit of energy, and much of it we won't even see. Because agents, AI, code will increasingly run economic systems as time goes on .
Markets will be among the first to be disrupted, since obviously capital is a primary requirement in a system, since everything requires capital to pay for electricity, computers, etc. So, it will hit the financial markets almost first. Raoul Pal believes the next transformation could arrive around 2030.
He calls it the economic singularity, the point at which artificial intelligence surpasses humans as the primary source of computation and the economy increasingly reorganizes around machines. This is where his thesis . Raoul predicts that autonomous AI agents will conduct more economic activity without humans manually directing every transaction.
Those agents will still need capital. They will have to purchase computing power, electricity, data, services, and other resources needed to operate. Traditional financial infrastructure was designed around human customers and institutions. Cryptocurrencies offer something fundamentally different. Blockchain networks can be accessed directly through software, while stablecoins can allow value to move continuously without requiring every transaction to begin with a person visiting a bank.
This possibility is already attracting serious attention. Google introduced its agent payments protocol in 2025 with the support of over 60 organizations, including Coinbase and the Ethereum Foundation. The protocol was designed to provide AI agents with a framework for initiating transactions while maintaining authorization and accountability.
Raoul believes that financial markets could therefore become one of the first areas disrupted by agent economics. And if autonomous software eventually becomes a huge new class of economic participants, cryptocurrencies could become more than just an investment. They could become the financial infrastructure for an increasingly machine-driven economy .
That possibility brings us directly to the final piece of the puzzle: why cryptocurrencies could be at the center of this transformation. The final piece connecting Tom Lee and Raoul Pal is bigger than a single market cycle: regulation, tokenization, stablecoins, institutional capital, and artificial intelligence are all starting to push the financial system toward blockchain infrastructure at the same time.
The numbers are becoming hard to ignore. Circle reported that USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion in the second quarter, while on-chain transaction volume jumped 151% year- over-year. Even more significantly, Circle has positioned its infrastructure around tokenized assets, digital payments, and artificial intelligence agents.
This is remarkably close to the machine-driven financial system that Raoul believes is coming. Even traditional finance is moving deeper. In July, Citadel Securities invested $400 million in crypto.com at a valuation of $20 billion. Reuters described banks, exchanges, and asset managers as blurring the lines between traditional finance and digital assets as institutional demand and tokenization expand.
This does not guarantee that cryptocurrency prices will consistently rise. Bitcoin showed weakness in 2026, proving that adoption can accelerate even when markets remain volatile. But perhaps this is precisely what makes this context so important. Infrastructure is advancing even before speculation returns to full swing.
Tom sees regulation as the key to opening the doors to institutions. Raoul sees artificial intelligence reshaping the economy. Taken together, cryptocurrencies could lay the foundation for a much larger financial system than the current one. .
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