저자: RaoulPal&CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
Raoul Pal은 비트코인·이더리움·솔라나의 장기 기술적 셋업과 초과유동성 증가로 크립토 랠리가 임박했다고 주장. 유동성이 AI에서 크립토로 이동할 수 있으며, 재정 적자·지속 차입으로 경기순환이 슈퍼사이클로 길어진다고 봄. 중동 긴장 완화 시 달러 약세·유동성 개선 가능성 언급. Cathie Wood는 기술혁명으로 1년 내 인플레이션 공포가 사라지고 디플레이션이 올 수 있다고 전망하며 크립토 비중 유지를 강조.
다듬은 글
Cryptocurrency has been disappointing investors for months, but Raul Pal believes the conditions for the next big move are finally starting to form. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are exhibiting rare technical setups. At the same time, liquidity conditions are starting to change. And according to Pal, once excess liquidity accelerates, the money currently concentrated in the AI boom could finally flow into crypto.
But his gaze reaches much further than the next rally. Powell believes that today's combination of massive investments nd constant debt issuance could turn the business cycle into something much bigger—a supercycle. Even geopolitical uncertainty could become part of the equation if easing tensions eventually leads to a decline in the dollar and improved global liquidity.
Meanwhile, Katie Wood is equally optimistic about what's next. She believes that inflation fears may disappear, deflation could set in within the next year or so, and the technological revolution could create extraordinary conditions for investors who have taken the right stance. In this video, we'll break down why Raul Pal believes the crypto market is gaining momentum for its next big move, how liquidity can unlock the market, why he sees a cycle evolving into a supercycle, and why Katie Wood believes the next few years could transform investing in both crypto and technology.
fraction of you who watch are actually subscribed. If you benefit . Crypto-things. As you said, the most interesting was ETH, Bitcoin. Everything else was just nonsense. It's like we had an upward surge and then there was a sideways phase. The series was weaker, but still just forming and this is the daily chart.
We already have 13. We'll probably get another nine here. But when we move on to weekly counts , we already had 13, and that usually works really well. And more importantly, we're also on lunar nine, which is extremely rare for anything. Yes. So, the monthly Bitcoin chart with the number nine. Here's the monthly chart of ETH with a nine, right?
Monthly SOL chart with nine. I mean, such patterns don't happen often. So again , people hate when we say it, they hate when she says it, but patience. Nothing special is happening. He's just gaining strength, doing his thing. Liquidity is needed for this to happen. You know, I mean , everyone's so worried about Mike Howe.
And to get back to that, Mike Howe was pessimistic about NASDAQ and Bitcoin because of, um, its liquidity metrics, right? We are optimistic about both because of our liquidity indicators. And what happened? Well, cryptocurrencies are not doing very well, but NASDAQ is doing very well. So we were both right about one part of the trade, doesn't move one way or the other, because otherwise it would disprove or confirm one of the two views, but it didn't.
So I think it's probably related to this excess liquidity indicator. Let me share this: liquidity above GDP and excess liquidity is growing, but I just have that too. I mean, the concept of excess liquidity is that all liquidity above GDP is effectively free money that can be financialized and absorbed by financial markets.
Yes. And there is liquidity versus excess liquidity. She's really coming off now. Yes. I'll squeeze it in a little, but it's starting to grow now. There may be a better lead time than 90 days, but I'm currently at about 90 days. The conditions seem to be ripe, but again, it's the yield curve. So here we are again, sitting and watching the headlines about Iran, waiting for something important to happen.
And I think that excess liquidity will eventually accelerate. But this is the uneven, choppy movement we see in risky assets. There is only enough liquidity for the AI trend, which I know people already intuitively understand because it hasn't happened. But the moment that happens, everything will begin.
Raul Pal believes the crypto market is reaching a point where patience may finally pay off. He is not only focused on Bitcoin. He points to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as demonstrating extremely important technical setups on longer time frames, including monthly signals that he says rarely appear together.
For Pal, the market wasn't broken. He was building strength, waiting for the missing ingredient— liquidity. A distinction that became even more important after a difficult first half of 2026 . Bitcoin remains well below its peak in October 2025. But new institutional demand is starting to emerge again.
A recent market forecast from 21Shares reported that inflows into crypto ETFs turned positive in July for the first time since April . While Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed better this month, it doesn't guarantee a rapid rise, but it does support Pal's view that things may be changing beneath the surface.
His main argument concerns excess liquidity—money that remains in excess of the needs of the real economy. Pal argues that when this volume increases, more capital can flow into financial assets. Until recently, artificial intelligence absorbed much of this additional liquidity. If this liquidity expands, cryptocurrencies could become the next big thing, so the forces controlling liquidity, especially the yield curve and the dollar, become crucial as investors look for a powerful new stimulus.
In my opinion, everything now depends on the yield curve, because if it becomes steeper, it will contribute to increased liquidity. The dollar is falling. You know, this is essentially the only important factor. So the next question is: what do you think about the situation in the Middle East right now?
I think we agree that a settlement is in everyone's interest, but how do you see the development of events? As far as I can tell—and none of us know for sure, which is why I do n't like geopolitics—there are two factions in Iran. The US, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been negotiating with one of them for many years.
The other faction, the radical one, which includes the IRGC and other forces, is a completely different side. Yes. They were close to the agreement with the “Abrahamic Covenants” and everything else that was coming up . And when there was very little left, they brought up the Palestinian issue and this whole situation.
This created an equal and opposite reaction from Israel, and later the US. And they took the opportunity to try to remove the ruling class. They destroyed most of them. But the problem is that a significant part of the army is still under the control of these radicals and others. And now negotiations are underway.
I don't know how this will be resolved, but I assume that they are trying to give other forces more influence over time, because you can see how Trump is constantly putting pressure and then backing down, calling for a return to the negotiating table. Yes. They don't give up , they don't give up every time, but they say: no, we will move forward.
So I think they are serious. The market doesn't believe it yet. Maybe the market is right, but I still believe this will be resolved, because the situation has been going on for a very long time. This is something that Kushner and others have been working on for five or six years. This is not a small thing.
The conflict between the United States and Iran remains unresolved, but negotiations are showing new signs of de-escalation. Reuters reported on August 7 that the US is waiting for a deal involving Iran and Oman that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unimpeded commercial shipping. Earlier in the week, signs of progress in the negotiations helped push oil prices down significantly .
This is important for markets because reducing geopolitical risks and easing energy pressures could reduce one source of inflation uncertainty, potentially giving policymakers more flexibility and improving investors' risk appetite. None of this guarantees an immediate cryptocurrency rally. Negotiations could still fail, and energy markets remain volatile.
But Pal's broader argument is that addressing this macro pressure could remove another obstacle holding back liquidity. If this happens against the backdrop of the growing technical strength of cryptocurrencies, the situation will become much more interesting. The next question is how long this economic cycle can last.
arise, I break it all . Honestly, Trump, if we didn't have this boom in capital investment and AI, like the Trump version of one, we would have a hell of a troubled economy. Yes, that's true too. You know, he... the reality is that he held back a significant portion of the economy with his actions. I understand that he is trying to solve long-term problems, like tariffs to cover the US budget deficit or war with Iran to lower oil prices , but these are high-stakes games.
And if we didn't have this massive technological boom, we would be in complete [ __ ]. Well, and one more thing, listening to you: the longer this goes on, provided that nothing breaks and oil, let's say, doesn't jump above 120-130. This only extends the business cycle even longer. At least, that's how I see it.
Yes, I completely agree. This simply lengthens the business cycle. Will there be a break? Will we have corrections? All of this is true , of course. But yes, it lengthens the business cycle because you have to keep issuing bonds and notes to pay for it. This is true. So the more you screw things up by keeping the yield curve too flat and rates too high, the more bills you have to issue to pay the interest, which turns the cycle into a supercycle because you can't fix it.
Raoul Pal believes that the forces that sustain this cycle are becoming difficult to ignore. His argument is that without the boom in capital spending on artificial intelligence, today's economy would look much weaker. Instead, technology companies are pouring huge sums into infrastructure, creating an investment engine that continues to support economic activity even as rates remain restrictive.
Recent figures further strengthen this argument. It is expected that in 2026, large technology companies will spend more than $730 billion on investments in artificial intelligence. Microsoft alone is reportedly planning capital expenditures of approximately $175 billion per calendar year. This is no longer just a speculative technological story .
This has become a huge source of real economic investment. At the same time, government borrowing remains colossal. The U.S. Treasury Department expects $671 billion in net market borrowing in the private sector during the July-September quarter. Pal's thesis is that constant borrowing and interest costs make it difficult for policymakers to allow a deep recession.
The risks still exist . The Federal Reserve left rates at 3.5–3.75% in July, acknowledging that inflation remains high, but economic activity continues to grow, and productivity and capital investment are assessed as strong. This combination supports Pal's argument about the supercycle. And if this expansion continues, cryptocurrencies will have much more time to gain the liquidity that will eventually form around them .
With that in mind, let's move on to Katie Wood with her brief forecast for the stock markets and cryptocurrencies in general. We are very excited about what will happen in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets over the next few years. This technological revolution is real. I think the fear of inflation that has been unnerving the markets will disappear.
And trust me, consider the source. I know I've been saying this for a few years now. We think we will see deflation before any hyperinflation occurs that could worry the markets. And we believe that this will happen within the next year or so. And it's going to be fantastic for investors and companies that are on the right side of change, really using all these technology tools, and it's going to be very difficult for those that aren't .
Katie Wood believes the next few years could reward investors ready for technological change, and cryptocurrency remains an important part of that thesis. Her argument is that markets still underestimate how quickly innovation can change the cost structure of productivity and, ultimately, inflation.
If these forces strengthen, the conditions for asset growth could become much more favorable. Wood's most striking prediction is that the fear of inflation may eventually give way to deflation. But, of course, this is just a forecast, not today's reality. Inflation continues to complicate the Federal Reserve's decisions in 2026, keeping monetary policy tighter than many risk investors would like .
However, Wood believes that powerful technologies can reduce costs through increased productivity through artificial intelligence, automation, robotics and digital infrastructure. For crypto investors, the importance is not only in the cheapening of technology. A sustained decline in inflation could, over time, create space for lower interest rates and easier financial conditions.
This would reinforce the liquidity argument that Raul Pal has been making throughout this cycle. Wood does not promise constant upward growth. Her thesis hinges on whether technological implementations translate into real productivity gains and cost reductions. But if she is right, investors could end up facing a radically different macroeconomic environment.
Lower inflation combined with accelerating innovation could provide a strong underpinning for risk assets, giving Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market another important source of momentum. R. Pal and Katie Wood may approach the market differently, but their bullish arguments are increasingly converging.
Cryptocurrency is becoming part of the financial infrastructure, not just another speculative transaction . This shift is already visible in the behavior of institutional players. A 2026 survey by Coinbase and EY Puffin found that 66% of institutional decision-makers have a stake in spot crypto exchanges, and 81% prefer spot instruments over registered investment products.
Meanwhile, 64% of asset managers expressed interest in asset tokenization, compared to 40% in 2025. The market underlying this is also growing. Coindesk research reported that the volume of tokenized real assets reached a record $28.9 billion in May, marking the tenth consecutive monthly record. The volume of tokenized Treasury bonds alone exceeded $16 billion.
Even the International Monetary Fund is now openly discussing how tokenization could change the architecture of finance. This is where Pal's liquidity thesis and Wood's technological thesis begin to converge. Pal sees how expanding liquidity is driving capital into cryptocurrencies. Wood sees disruptive technologies creating new financial systems.
None of them guarantees that prices will rise tomorrow. But for its next chapter, cryptocurrency no longer needs to be solely about retail speculation. Institutional access , tokenization, and blockchain-based finance continue to expand despite volatility. If liquidity accelerates along with this implementation, the next crypto market boom could be driven by something much more serious than hype . Well, friends, that's all for today.
Comments 0