저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 시장이 바닥을 다지고 횡보 중이며 지금부터 분할 매수를 시작할 시점이라는 낙관적 견해다. 시장 바닥 판단: 지난해 가을과 달리 올해는 시장이 바닥을 치고 있으며, 매일 쌓이는 신호들이 현 시점이 매수 시작점임을 시사한다고 본다. 현재 가격에는 이미 알려진 정보가 반영되어 있으므로 중요한 것은 미래 전개다. 빅테크 구조 변화: 성장 둔화가 인정되고 있으며, 빅테크는 성장주에서 현금창출(캐시카우) 사업 방식으로 전환해야 한다. 밸류에이션 배수가 좁은 범위에서 거래될 것이므로 비용 관리를 강화해야 하고, 실험과 인력 과잉 같은 낭비는 줄어들 것이다. 빅테크 전망: 애플, 페이스북(메타), 구글, 그리고 어느 정도 마이크로소프트는 가장 많이 보유된 주식으로 주식시장의 국채 같은 안전자산 역할을 하므로 밸류에이션 민감도가 가장 크다. 이들이 긴축 준비를 할 만큼 신호를 본 것은 다른 기업들에게 경고다. 다만 그는 이것이 끝이 아니라 시작이라고 본다. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 2만 달러 상회 후 경제지표 강세로 하락해 약 1만9750달러까지 밀렸다. 이더리움, 카르다노, 솔라나, 도지코인도 동반 하락했다(기사 인용). 시장 저점 전망: 저점에서 3~5% 위에 있으며 고점보다는 저점에 가깝다고 본다. 시장의 비합리적 행동은 빠져나가고 있으며 건강한 조정 과정이라고 평가한다. 투자 기회: 2008~2010년, 2002~2004년처럼 비대칭적 상승 여력이 큰 시기에 투자한 기업들(Atlassian, Tesla, Uber, Google, Airbnb, Instagram, WhatsApp 사례 언급)이 큰 성과를 냈다. 2022년 처음 투자 대상이 되는 기업과 2023~2024년에 투자 대상이 될 기업이 다음 상승 국면의 주도주가 될 것이며, 핵심은 그런 기업을 찾는 것이다. 연준·영국 사례: 영국 파운드 급락 후 영란은행이 무제한 국채 매입을 발표해 시장이 되돌아갔고, 정책이 재정 정책 실패를 구제하고 있다고 비판한다. 영란은행은 금리를 약 140bp 인상할 예정이며, 연준 역시 금리를 올리면서 동시에 잘못된 정책의 안전망 역할을 하고 있다는 점이 문제라고 지적한다. 연준 피벗 기대는 암호화폐 상승에 반영되었으나 이후 경제지표로 되돌려졌다. 리스크: 정책 당국이 구제를 반복하면 시장 규율이 약화되고 끝이 보이지 않는다는 점을 우려한다. 출연자 전망: 시장 저점 근접, 분할 매수 시작, 다음 상승장 주도주를 찾아야 한다는 낙관적 입장이다.
다듬은 글
it's another data point that again I said it last week I'll go out on a limb and predict my equivalent November fall predictions last fall it was at the markets were going to poop the bed my prediction now is that I think the markets are bottoming and consolidating yep 100 and this is the time I think to start nibbling and start getting ready to really rip the money in and I think there's enough signals every day that kind of like tell me at least that on the margin it's time because I think the markets do a reasonably good job of digesting news and then pricing the forward reality right like today's price is really everything we already know and so the real guess is what's about to happen in the future and from my perspective I'm actually pretty starting to get a little constructive here I think that um when when companies like Facebook really do this and you know like if you think about it one way the financial markets have always had this thing that we have called the fed put what does that mean to put is essentially the right to sell something and what Market participants have always known for the last decade is that if things got very hairy if there was uncertainty in the market the Federal Reserve would and they have consistently stepped in to create a buyer of Last Resort and so it always eliminated that last part of true you know Supply demand balance because they would just come and say don't worry chamath polyapedia updates about big Tech starts making cuts and what this means for the broader economy and startups along with his thoughts on global debt numbers and fed incompetency Chamas shares his outlook on Market's bottoming or consolidating in the coming days while it definitely is the end of an era I think it is sort of like the the end of this phase of big Tech where you had this you know unfettered growth where these business models were largely unassailable and they you know we're really just fighting to grow into their valuation and just generate more Revenue to justify where they um where they traded at and now it's this next phase where they have to operate more like a cash cow business and so you know it's an acknowledgment that the growth is tapering it's an acknowledgment that they're going to trade on a pretty tight band in terms of multiple which means that they have to manage expenses much more tightly which means that they can't have a really broad-based surface area in which to operate an experiment you have to keep the experiments small you have to manage your expenses you can't have employees basically you know run over the place management has to have a firm hand in in dictating strategy and what people work on so I think all of that signals that I actually Jason I don't think this is the end I actually think it's the beginning because these companies Apple Facebook Google maybe a little bit Microsoft are the most sensitive to valuation because they are the most widely held right these are the these are the you know the equivalent of U.S treasuries in the equity markets the safest most predictable Safe Haven in times of stress if you want to own big chunky cash flow generating businesses that you know are relatively unassailable you couldn't pick four better businesses than those and so the fact that they see enough in the Horizon to say that we need to batten down the hatches should be a warning to everybody else bitcoin's two-day Resurgence ran out of steam after strong economic data dashed hopes for relaxation in hawkish Central Bank policies Bitcoin the largest digital coin by market value dipped as much as 2.9 percent to trade as low as 19 752 before trading little changed that's a reversal from the prior day's trading when Bitcoin moved above twenty thousand dollars to gain alongside the S P 500 Index U.S stocks also slumped on Wednesday dropping as much as 1.8 percent after a two-day rally ether sank as much as 3.3 percent while other so-called altcoins like cardano and Solana dipped lower Dogecoin sank as much as 3.8 percent a reversal from the prior session when the coin gained as much as 9.5 percent in many ways in Tech what the big tech companies were were that you know you could never really find what the true market clearing price for an engineer was or what the true amount of expenses you should spend on office space or you know free services because you always always had these companies which was an escalating arms race you know if one company had a massage the next company had gyms in massage and physical therapists and the other company would have buses to take you to the gyms and massage and therapists and the next company would have protein shakes that were freshly made you know and it just kept escalating and escalating because the costs didn't matter and they wanted if nothing else to get that marginal engineer or product manager or business person to work at their company which eliminated the risk that they would actually start something to disrupt them so when you take this big Tech put out of the market you will get true price Discovery and you will find out what the real price should be for this kind of an engineer that kind of a product manager you'll find out what are the real expenses you need to bear in order to build a real lasting business and you'll be able to sort through all of that stuff out so I think it's a really good moment and again it's yet another indication to me that I think broadly speaking the markets are now starting to stabilize all the irrational Behavior is starting to exit the system the party is in the last few hours volumes going down the alcohol is being taken away people are hanging around with a little bit lights are coming on they're like I've been here a little too long and I think that that's a very healthy process for an economy and I think that that's what's happening right now so I'm constructive I'm a little bullish I'll go I'll go out on a limb I think you know we could be three to five percent from the lows but we're more near the lows than the highs economic data showed better than estimated growth for U.S service providers as well as companies strong demand for workers those figures could weigh on investors hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve we will we will also relive what we have empirically known to be true and it's been it's been pretty well proven the Investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they'll have the most asymmetric upside and that was true in 2008 9 and 10.
it was true in you know 2002 three and four you I mean you're talking incredible companies just in those two periods think about this atlassian Tesla Uber Google Airbnb Uber Instagram WhatsApp incredible businesses that have created tremendous value and so there are businesses that have been invested in for the first time in 2022 and will be invested in for the first time in 2023 and 24 which will be the leading winners of this next phase and this next leg up and so the real opportunity is to find out who those companies are and get behind them I think in the previous few days the crypto markets traded higher on what appears to be expectations the U.S federal reserve will pivot to a more accommodative monetary policy lowering interest rates instead of raising them the bank of England's or Boe announcement last week that it will begin to purchase Bonds in unlimited quantities injecting money into the economy rather than removing it raise the possibility that the US will follow suit unfortunately Western governments are working but I think there's a silver lining like she basically came in a day after she got elected and said okay guess what guys at the same time I'm going to massively cut taxes and I'm going to give you fiscal stimulus I'm going to cap your energy bills and I'm going to have these huge transfer payments from the government into the hands of of British citizens I'm not going to comment on whether that's right or right right or wrong but the financial markets to your point David absolutely hated it and within a few days you basically saw the pound get crushed but then what did you see you saw the bank of England decide that Financial stability was more important than financial viability meaning the things that she wanted to do were not viable so you could have let the financial Market sort this out which would have forced the prime minister to basically abandon the policy but instead the Boe said now we're on an unlimited buyer of UK guilts which is the name of the UK Bond and everything snapped back we're back to where we were before her speech and before the chancellor of the exchequer speech and so it's as if nothing happened and that's what's so insane to me which is that even though the bank of England by the way in the next week or two are going to raise rates 140 basis points 140 basis points almost double what the FED has done the last three times they're doing both at the same time they're both raising rates and they're acting as a backstop for bad policy and this is what's wrong right now in the world we do not have a real check and balance so my point to Freeburg is just that I'm like emotionally on your side but the problem is with these folks keep getting bailed out David they're just going to keep doing this stuff and there's no end in sight so do you agree with Tomas prediction about markets bottoming out so] thank you
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