저자: EverythingMoney출연자 · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적은 EPS 58센트로 예상(70센트)을 하회했지만 매출 59.3억 달러는 예상(58억)을 상회. 밸류에이션 8개 기준 분석에서 현재 주가가 과대평가(적정가 대략 75달러 수준, 현재 약 160달러대)로 판단. 매출 성장률을 보수적으로 가정해도 여전히 고평가라는 결론. 분기 실적보다 장기 펀더멘털이 중요하다는 가치투자 관점 강조.
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Nvidia just reported 58 cents versus 70 cents expected so missed big but Revenue came in higher than expected 5.93 billion versus 5.8 billion this is the chip Market they do the best graphics card I have them in my gaming laptop you know game I use it for a bunch of other stuff uh not YouPorn don't worry Moe um Nvidia didn't Nvidia um and Microsoft team up on something they did I'm looking for it right here Nvidia teams with the Microsoft to build massive Cloud AI computer okay so Nvidia is one of these chip stocks that has absolutely skyrocketed in the last year they went to a high of 346.47 November 21st 2021 one year ago five days from now that's incredible it's now and it hit a 52 low of 108 which was recently and it's back up to 155.
we have a 15-minute delay on our data so it's still showing two and a half percent what's Nvidia after hours currently up 3.26 okay so they must be guiding a little bit better along the way all right guys so is the company with a 400 billion dollar market cap and guess what Enterprise value of 414. so very little debt when you see a discrepancy between market cap and Enterprise Value when it's when Enterprise Value is higher it's essentially the debt number okay now if you're new to this channel we're value investors we really actually are value investors unlike the other hype losers out there on YouTube just because you have a camera doesn't make you smart we have a process that works that's very consistent with actual value investors when people I we have followers on our Channel who say they're value investors then I hear them talk I'm like you're not a value investor what we're trying to do here is buy a dollar for a lot less making reasonable assumptions on the future so we look at a company like Nvidia whenever we see a chart like this it scares us whenever we see young kids loving a stock it scares us we want to look when the market price and the intrinsic value of the business are disconnected when Mr Market's willing to sell us shares for much lower than we think the intrinsic value for the businesses we couldn't care less about these quarter to quarter results we want to listen a quarter quarter basis to see has our overall thesis changed so we're going to go through the eight pillars here I highly recommend if you like this to subscribe to our Channel because we do videos like this every single day two or three videos a day and during earning Seasons where the fastest I literally have other YouTubers go how do you get how do you get videos out so fast well we have a crew we have a setup as the whole business here so that's why we have it so let's go look at our eight pillars on Nvidia okay oh Boise five-year PE five-year price of free cash flow 76 and 80.
a little rich now guys if Nvidia is going to grow at 40 a year for the next 10 years we'd be like lock it down Jim Cramer said it's gonna be a 10 trillion dollar company in a decade isn't this the one that he said it's the whole video about it yeah so uh Kim Kramer has a video where in a span of five months he went in video to the Moon to at the very end he's saying I'm short this is garbage I'm short Nvidia this is not investing that is just charts and I'm fine with that not even charts that's just following stock price well that's charts well he's I don't know what you're saying yeah he's on anything yeah you're right the price is going up yeah Jim Cramer is also an idiot so um what are the analysts estimates think about the future of Nvidia all right they expect a drop which makes sense guys there was a big surge in freaking chips over the last year it wasn't sustainable we've been saying this on the channel for a long time shipping chips cars all these things can home prices home sales they cannot sustain themselves at this level forever look at this Revenue growth 12 billion 10 billion 15 billion and then 24 billion and 31 billion are they guiding for next year what are they guiding for next year on Revenue let's check it out that's something I want to see what Nvidia is saying in these because I want to sit there and show people like hey maybe they can continue it I don't know they're going to stay somewhere in there oh they're they're going to pay its next quarterly cash dividend to four cents per share yeah I'm why bother yeah uh revenue is expected to be six billion in the final quarter um what about for the full year do not have full year guidance here oh uh fourth quarter fiscal okay gotcha well look for that um but look at their EPS they're still accepted more than double EPS in the next five years so my question to you is if you believe this number should you care about quarter to quarter results not at all at all or have they missed by a penny each time missed by Penny every quarter who cares better for you it's better for you because then people overreact sell up the stock like crazy and you'll be able to buy shares much cheaper okay now let's go to the revenue expectations analysts are still expecting big Revenue growth almost doubling to 51 billion dollars next four or five years that's low double low to mid double digits and EPS growth of really high numbers 20 30 35 percent there's eight pillars look at this they issued I'm actually if I were them I'd have issued thirty percent exactly I actually looked at their I didn't look at the eight pillars I strolled down here and I was like why aren't they issuing more shares down here you should have been issuing shares like crazy so for those of you who don't know what we're talking about here we don't we want companies to keep shares the same and only issue shares if it's so expensive I'd rather have you do that than take on debt because you're giving overpriced shares to the market and getting that cash and you don't owe anything back but when the stock is cheap I don't want them buying shares back so I'm glad that Nvidia sorry I want them buying shares back when the stock is cheap so I'm glad that a video was not buying back shares because a lot of companies just buy back shares to boost that earnings per share even though what they're doing is they're buying back their expensive shares I don't like that all right so let's use our little stock analyzer tool what we're going to do here the stock analyzer tool is what we use to sit there and figure out what intrinsic value is for the business now it's useful for companies where we have a reasonable idea of what the future is going to look like so on Nvidia do I think Nvidia is going to be around for the next in the next 10 years absolutely it's been around for a long time two and they have low debt also so it's gonna be hard to go bankrupt two do I think they're going to make more revenue and profit in 10 years from now than today yes Moe what would you say I would say yes apps I agree with that too number three can I pay a reasonable price today for that revenue and profit over the next 10 years and the value of the company 10 years from now and that's what we're here to use stock analyzer tools for or to figure out what a reasonable value is so Moe and I are going to do it separate we're going to be a little bit uh talking a little out loud not really I'll probably do more talking than Mo okay so Revenue growth Mo if you remember analysts were expecting for the next five years a mid double digit mid-teens right okay all right so okay remember the um the chip industry is supposed to grow to 12 a year for the next 10 years profit margin okay ee that's sick okay I'm done with my estimates done and the stock is currently at 163 actually after hours it's higher than that now it's 163 sorry that's including the after hours okay yeah right now it's up 1.62 161.
okay okay so MO oh see I did 8 14 20. I thought you might go crazy on the high side yeah cause I think the chip Market is one of those things we don't know it could grow crazy would you do 7 10 and 13. okay profit margin I did 22 25 28 23 26 29. okay same with free cash if I did the exact same thing same I did 14 16 18 for PE and price of free cash flow and for is that any return so look at that since I went so high on the high side I wanted a big number here I did 12 and a half 15 17 and a half and I went 12 and a half 13 and a half 14 and a half but that makes sense so but to explain that to everybody who's watching who's new so remember if you're new and you'd like this so far as a way to explain why stocks go up and down the higher my assumptions the bigger desired return I want because it's less likely to happen my desired return is essentially my margin of safety right so the higher my assumptions the more margin of safety I need the higher return I need I hit the analyze button boom all right I got a low price of 47 high of 115 Middle price at 75.
it's currently watch less at 75 dollars yep I got a low end of about call it 46 high end of uh 90. watch listed 80. all right so it just screams overpriced here right now guys look at this 20 Revenue growth for the next 10 years think about that math real quick well what are they doing um what do they do in Revenue in the last 12 months the last 12 months uh 30.92 billion call it 30.
it would take them to 191 billion dollars in Revenue at 20 increase and it's still saying overpriced and it's still saying overpriced today guys in the long run stocks will do what the fundamentals show we just did a video on Cisco look at Cisco's chart this is a company that couldn't miss and look at their all-time chart their high was 82 back in 2000 22 and a half years ago they have not hit it since but since then Revenue has gone from 12 billion to 50 billion that's four times more and their profit is up three or four times and yet the stock is down from the all-time high why because fundamentals didn't work here this could be one of those Nvidia could be one of those companies when we're making a video in 2040 saying remember when Nvidia was 300 and some dollars didn't touch that price yep it could be yeah we don't know so guys subscribe to the channel if you like this video we know what we're talking about we don't believe it just because we have a popular YouTube channel that we are smart we have a process and that's what makes us good investors and we manage the emotions a lot better than most that's what it takes so subscribe to the channel thank you very much for your time there are more videos to come take care thank you
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