저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준은 금리를 한두 차례 더 올리고 이후 동결하는 게 맞고, 경기는 침체보다 연착륙 쪽에 가깝다는 입장. 국제유가: 사우디가 감산을 발표해 유가가 급등한 것은 세계 경제가 기대만큼 강하지 않을 것이라는 인식 때문으로 해석. 중국 경기 회복은 기대에 못 미치고 미국은 은행위기로 성장이 둔화될 것으로 봄. 유가 5% 상승은 의미 있으나 얼마나 오래 높게 유지될지가 관건. 금리·연준: 연준이 0.25%p 추가 인상할 가능성은 있으나 사실상 종료 단계라고 봄. 장단기 금리역전은 긴축이 금융 시스템 어딘가를 깨뜨릴 것이라는 신호였고 은행위기가 그 결과라고 평가. 인플레이션은 계속 완화될 전망. 금리 인하 기대는 기술주에 유리. 은행위기·연준 대차대조표: 2008년 수준의 위기는 아니지만 대출 위축과 성장 둔화를 낳을 것. 최근 유동성 공급으로 연준 총자산은 늘었으나 QT는 계속 진행 중이라는 혼재 상황. 채권 2년물 금리 하락은 주식시장에 긍정적. 고용: 올해 1분기 감원 13.6만 명으로 2022년 하반기 전체를 넘어섬. 기술기업 감원이 중심이며 숙련 인력이라 재취직은 어렵지 않을 것이고 퇴직금 덕에 실업수당 청구는 아직 크지 않음. 베이비붐 세대 은퇴로 외식·의료 수요가 늘어 해당 노동 수요는 강함. 시장 전망: 지난해 약세장은 10월 12일에 끝났다고 봄. 소비자 고용 악화 인식이 커지면 추가 하락 가능성 있으나, 실업률이 낮을 때 약세장이 오는 경향이 있다는 점을 인정. 연착륙(롤링 세션) 캠프에 속함.
다듬은 글
7.45 percent okay well ediardini is now joining us he's president at yardini research E uh you know so the new thing this morning is the big jump we are seeing in oil prices which affects everyone around the world how big are inflationary impulses this likely to prove for policy makers in your opinion well I think uh initially we're all just going to have to sit back and see how the market settles out I mean clearly it was a big surprise and there were some shorts that had to cover but uh I I think it's possible that one of the reasons the Saudis have announced the card is because they recognize that the global economy may not be as strong as widely anticipated that the Chinese economy is picked up since the end of its lockdowns but it's uh there hasn't been a real gangbusters boom over in China and mean while the US has this banking crisis which is bound to slow economic growth I don't think it's going to cause a recession but I think in many ways the Saudis took up a preemptive preventative approach here fearing that the price of oil would continue to decline Ed hi good morning and thanks for being with us on the channel how do you see the equity markets globally evolved from here one narrative is that the worst of the crisis the recession the rate hikes have already been priced into Global markets including market like India would you concur with that view well I think that uh once again the Federal Reserve is turning out to be the key player here that affects everybody else playing the game uh the the FED is uh likely to perhaps go up by another quarter point I think they should be done actually because I think we are continuing to see inflation moderate and meanwhile the inverted yield curve has been predicting since last summer that if the FED continues to tighten something might break in the financial system and sure enough we have a banking crisis I don't think it's anywhere near the banking crisis we had in 2008 uh but nonetheless it is a crisis and uh things are going to slow their lending the economy is going to slow and I think inflation is going to continue to moderate so I think the global economy focusing on the FED probably recognizes all that and uh and I should say the global financial markets recognize all that and as you mentioned before the lower interest rates are very beneficial the technology stocks as long as it does a signal that we're going to fall into recession I'm in the soft Landing Camp I'm I'm in the camp that's argues that we've been in a rolling session rather than an economy-wide recession um hi Mr Anthony good morning uh you know we've been talking about QT and a lot of buddies out there but the first sniff of trouble with regard to these Banks and the fed's balance sheet is indicating QE yet again you know the updated number that they've put out uh you know do you expect more of the same or do you think that it's temporary well it's all pretty confusing right uh here they're still uh got QT going on they're they're still letting um maturing Securities uh off their balance sheet they're not uh buying buying new ones but at the same time their provision of liquidity to the banking system has been uh quite substantial just in the past two weeks and that means that their total assets have actually increased even though they're still committed to QT so we've got this very strange combination of a QE on the liquidity Bank crisis side and QT of the long-term effects of trying to manage some backing away from all the excessive qes of the past few years I think on balance uh you know we have to just focus on what the Outlook is for the federal funds rate and I think uh what the market has come to realize is that we're at restrictive we're probably very close to terminal it's not actually there and that's why we've seen bond yields come down in the two-year yield come down and that's beneficial for the stock market the other big problem that the economy the U.S economy is facing is layoffs right I mean I was just looking at the data in the first quarter of this uh calendar year 136 000 people have been laid off that has already exceeded the layoffs in the last six months of 2022 and the fear is that with these layoffs employees losing their jobs a higher inflation could pinch further a multiple round of rate hikes could throw the economy further into recession uh have you priced that into your uh to your argument about how weak the markets could get or is that an additional fear that could perhaps you know derail the markets further you make a good point because uh we always get very low unemployment rates right before bear markets in in stocks well we've already had a bear market last year and I think it ended on October 12th uh but uh you know we could have another downdraft in the market if there's a perception that we're losing in the consumer because consumers are losing jobs uh the labor market is another uh example of all the confusing confusion confusion that has occurred as a result of the and I think in this case what we have is we have a lot of layoffs particularly in technology companies that hired too many people and now they're cutting back but a lot of those people are very skilled very educated and are probably going to be uh finding finding a job isn't that hard by the way a lot of them also got severance pay which is maybe why we haven't seen initial unemployment claims going up but the other thing that's going on is people like myself Baby Boomers a lot of my friends are retiring and you know what they do in their retirement they spend money they go to restaurants and so the demands were going to play the restaurants has been soaring and they go to the hospitals just to make sure they're uh that they're okay and as a result of that a tremendous demand for healthcare workers and restaurant workers and we leave it there thank you very much great speaking with you and uh catch up with you soon again thanks indeed research with a quick thought basically I mean we need to wait and watch uh for the oil markets to settle how it's not a five percent is Meaningful bounds but will it go any further and how long will it stay this high for are the two questions uh which I think markets will watch closely we'll take a quick break here our list of top stocks to watch with our research team coming up in just a bit from now foreign
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