저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500과 나스닥이 강한 반등 후 주요 저항선 돌파 여부를 주시 중이며, 상승 추세가 유지되는 한 지지선에서 매수 관점을 유지해야 한다는 주장. 나스닥100과 다우도 상승 추세 회복 신호로 보며, 러셀2000과 소형주는 하락 추세 속 데드캣 바운스로 평가. 공포지수(VIX)는 20 저항을 확인하며 낮은 공포를 강조. 비트코인·대형 기술주(구글, 아마존, 마이크로소프트, 애플, 테슬라)는 상승 목표가를 제시하고, 엔비디아는 262~280 박스권으로 중립 평가.
다듬은 글
today we had a very strong bounce in the indices across the market and the S P 500 is now approaching critical resistance yet again will we get the breakout or will we see a rejection up 1.99 and we did get that very strong bounce off of the rising 50 EMA and support Zone at 404 and we're back above one of the critical resistance levels which was that level at spy 411 which only leaves that critical resistance now just above at 414 which we will likely test as soon as tomorrow now I've talked about this on the weekend updates with the weekly charts and I just talked about how critical this level is last night if we see spy breaking through 414 we are getting the higher high breakout and continuing into the bull Trend however price action needs to prove it so there is no reason getting bullish that resistance we need the confirmation of the breakout remember in a bull Trend we only get bullish at support which was this level down here at 404 and as we approach resistance we lock those profits because we're not fat little piggies and we wait for confirmation of the breakout do not get bullish at resistance and do not get bearish at support and you are going to instantly become a much better Trader keep in mind the theme of this year is still a bull Trend so we are expecting higher prices but price action needs to confirm it there's no reason trading on an idea let the price action confirm it and then place the trade and let it ride once we had that Gap up above 407 it was very likely going to continue to a bullish Trend day and that is exactly what we got and not only did we get a bullish Trend day but we sliced through a critical resistance level like it wasn't even there and we are seeing very nice volume on this very bullish green candle even though a lot of this was likely just short sellers getting squeezed out of their positions so going into tomorrow you're still looking for long trades in this bull Trend and you're Now using this support zone between 410 and 411.
406 to 407 so you need to manage your risk up here at the higher levels if we break 414 we're looking for 417 and above 417 we have the bull breakout on the weekly chart that sends us up to 420 and then 4 30. also pay attention to the Bollinger Bands which are very squeezed and we've been going sideways now going all the way back to the end of March so we are likely going to get a very volatile break of this range and the range is now defined between 404 to 414.
today we were up 2.72 percent on the NASDAQ 100s and we did get that bull breakout above all of the moving averages so we are right back into the bullet Trend as long as the triple cues can hold this breakout zone between 315 and 316. remember we have a gap to fill up here at 322 and you can now Smack That level with a stick so it's very likely that we are going up there to fill that Gap and that could be instant resistance if we see a rejection from that Gap fill also keep in mind we have that double bottom price Target up there at 327 and we could still retest the August highs in the 330s so anytime you have a bull Trend you need to respect support and we were sitting right on top of support which was the high from February 2nd and I went over this in great detail how you never get bearish at support when you're in a bull Trend and we also had this very nice well-defined bull flag so if we start breaking out of the range which is going to be that break above the 320s that is a bullish breakout from a bull flag which could send us to much higher prices at a very minimum we'll be looking number 327 up to about 333 and yes there is always the possibility we can go higher as long as we can sustain the bull Trend pay attention to the Bollinger Bands which are now squeezing so you have absolutely no reason to be bearish while we're trading above 311.
if we break down below 311 then we're likely going down to fill the Gap at 308 and that is also going to be very strong support and also pay attention to the volume today because we are advancing on increasing volume on the Dow Jones we were up 1.58 today and the Dow Jones is also bouncing off of the rising 50 EMA and the price action is back above all the moving averages and we're very close to having this bull breakout we just need confirmation with the break back over about 339.
again there's a good chance that Dow Jones is going to sustain this bull Trend and push to 346 to about 350 before we see any type of major correction manager risk at critical support between 332 and 334 because if we break below that we're looking for The Gap fill just below 329. on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we're up 1.34 today and yesterday we did close outside the lower boner ban after closing the Gap at 172 and we instantly found support and we're getting a balance but this is really just a dead cat bounce because we are in a bear Trend price action is below all of the moving averages so we have a very strong bear Trend and we're just getting a bounce off of an oversold condition so there's no reason to be overly bullish however if you're a contrarian and you think these are great levels to take on risk you can simply manage your risk from support at 170 because below that we're likely going all the way down to 164 163.
so you decide how you want to trade it just be aware it is in a bear Trend and in a bear Trend we're likely trending lower and to get out of the bear Trend we need to break all the way back over 179 and then 181. follow price action let it do all of the talking and the small caps are still relatively the weakest and a lot of that money is still flowing into the big Tech sector on the arcade ETF we were up 1.36 today and again it's really just a dead cat balance somewhere below all of the critical support at the 37 and 36 and this looks like a double triple top which could still take us down to fill the Gap below 32.
there is absolutely no reason to be bullish in The RK ETF until we can break all the way back over the highs at 40.5 on the vix we were down 9.66 today after the vix is getting another very sharp rejection off of that resistance right around 20 yet again and I continue to tell you this is bull market Behavior go back to the vix the entire bear market and you can see that vix level of 20 was support and now we're spending the majority of this year seeing it as resistance in the vix is back down below 18 yet again this tells us low fear and this tells us we're likely going to sustain the bull trend on bitcoin we're currently up 4.7 percent and Bitcoin is getting a very impulsive high volume bounce off of the support at the rising 50 EMA at 27 000 and we're right back above 29 000 yet again and the price action is above all the moving averages we still have a valid upside Target up there just below 31 800 and that is likely where we're heading while price action is above all the moving averages on Google stock we were up 3.74 today and Google had a very nice bounce off of the support right around 104 and we did fully close the gap right around 107 and we're well on our way to closing the Gap up here at 110.
Price actions above all the moving averages with a bull Trend and we're well above critical support with the boulder band squeezing so continue to stay bullish as long as we can hold Above This support zone between 100 to 102. on Amazon's stock we were up 4.61 today and Amazon had a very bullish breakout today because we did finally get that close back over the 200 daily moving average after fully closing that Gap at 109 re-testing getting that very impulsive high volume balance you can see down here on the volume it was a very high volume day on the breakout back over the 200 daily moving average and our next upside likely price targets will be 115 and this resistance trend line right around 117.
yes we can go higher than that but that's the next critical resistance we need to be paying attention to so stay bullish in Amazon now as long long as it can hold above 104 to 106. on Microsoft stock we were up 3.2 percent today and Microsoft is looking extremely bullish after earnings and we had that very impulsive bounce off of the support at 274 and we fully reached our price Target at 296 and now that we're breaking above 296 our next price Target is all the way up here at 310.
it looks like we'll be there very shortly at this rate and we're seeing very high volume buying and we still have the very strong bull Trend manage your risk on Microsoft at the breakout zone between 290 and 293. on Nvidia stock we have one percent today and Nvidia is still in this sideways trading range between 262 and 280 and there is absolutely no action to take on this stock unless you're trading the range or waiting for the breakout to get bullish we need to break 280 and then we'll likely start trending towards 300 and to get bearish we need to break 262 and then we'll likely come down towards 242.
on Tesla stock we were up 4.19 today and Tesla is getting a very nice bounce off of the support Zone at 154 but there's a very good chance we're going to put in a lower high and still go fully close the gap at 146. however you can't look too far ahead and 154 is a very valid support I would be paying attention to and only start shorting Tesla if we break below that support for The Gap foot at 146.
from here we have upside resistance levels we need to respect at 160 167 173 and the Gap filled just above 177. on Apple stock we were up 2.84 today and Apple is very close to that price Target at 169 and essentially we've reached the Target because we're looking at the resistance trend line and it is a negative slope from here I still expect to get the bull break out and fully close the gap at 171 so there's a very good chance Apple continues to run into earnings and goes to higher prices we have the bull Trend we're above the support trend line and we're managing risk right here at support at 163.
on the financial sector we were up 1.61 today and we need to hold this support right around 32.5 because if we break down we do have more gaps to fill to the downside on on the Industrials we have 1.98 today bouncing the closing up at 99 and still above 're up 0.52 today and I think there's a very good chance we're going higher to close the gap above 133 and likely going to get the breakout and start running towards 140.
on the energy sector we were up 0.36 today and we did fully close the gap to the downside right around 83 and we still have support right here at the Gap fill which is also the rising 200 daily moving average so if you want to take on risk manage risk right here at 83. so jump in back over to the S P 500 this is a very simple Market to trade as long as you're staying objective and letting the price action do all the Talking which means when we get to support levels there's no reason to be bearish because we're still on a bull Trend remember last year was the bear market and this year we've been in a bull Trend and you need to respect the bull Trend as long as we have it and we still have the bull Trend as long as we're above critical support manage risk at critical support and if we break below it you can instantly get risk off and get a lot more bearish but do not get get bearish until the price action tells us to check o or thank you
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