저자: Josh · 외국인
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3월 13일 기준 시장 변동성 확대 경고. 실리콘밸리은행 사태 이후 연준 긴급 유동성 프로그램 발표, 주식시장 내부지표 약세(시장 폭 악화)로 반등을 매도 기회로 봄. 비트코인은 1.5만 달러 바닥 주장 및 2.1만 달러 이상 매수 유지. 폴리곤(MATIC) 1달러 이하 분할 매수. 알리바바는 역헤드앤숄더 형성 주장하며 78달러 진입·77.5달러 손절 제시. 테슬라는 171달러 지지 확인 후 반등 기대. SPY 388 상회 마감 필요, PPI/CPI·FOMC 전 변동성 확대 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
Hey There YouTube family welcome to the stocks with Josh show there's a couple hours left in this trading day and there are some very important things I want to cover with you guys today I want to go over some stocks we've covered in the past I want to recap and just talk about these news events and how they could potentially impact the market for the rest of the month how it's going to impact the fomc meeting that we've got on the 21st and the 22nd as well as the CPI and the PPI how that debt is going to impact the market these markets have pulled back and there are some strong technical warnings of bearishness that the market is giving us right now but we can see anything happen because these events with the FED that are right around the corner could absolutely cause the markets to Skyrocket one thing is absolutely for certain and that's we're going to begin to see that increased volatility that I've been talking to you guys about when the market was calm and the vix was beneath 20 even down at 17 I brought it to you guys and said that this is the Calm before the storm and that's exactly what happened this last week we saw the vix Skyrocket and take off I think we're entering now into a little bit of a cool off day to day and then possibly even tomorrow but I think we're going to see another Spike up so there's a lot to be looking at stocks crypto volatility and news stories Banks crashing it's a big day in the market so I'm going to try to break it down one by one before I begin thank you guys for already hitting the like if you need to get an insight into these markets then hit the Subscribe and the all YouTube notification Bell I'd like everybody to celebrate with me this small page that I began barely less than a year ago hit 50 000 subscribers in an extremely down Market I think that shows that we are building a community on YouTube and I love it we've got a great chat group over on MooMoo and I love that Community as well for me this has been an extremely positive experience from beginning to end I've thoroughly enjoyed it and as I press in to my own trading and I'm able to bring insights and technicals to you guys I'm getting stronger so it's it's a blessing to me as well all right so recap obviously we there was blood in the streets on Thursday and Friday crypto was crashing and all that same fud began to flow back into YouTube and back into the pundits on CNBC everybody's saying it's over it's going to crash I began to read the news articles in the midst of that chaos I told everybody it's time to buy I actually told everybody I was going to begin to up my weekly purchases by 10x and to be honest with you I wish I bought more because I the technical uh Foundation the technical areas of support that I've identified in past videos they hit all of those areas of support and they've bounced and you know what it's a it's an indication to me that as I've said before that extremely bearish narrative on crypto moving forward is perhaps the wrong direction I am not saying in this video that we will not go back and test 18 5 000 on bitcoin I believe that that's very very likely but what I am saying is that the 15 5K Bitcoin bottom that we saw in the previous months I'm saying that that's the bottom I'm saying that I'm wiping the idea of a 12K 10K Bitcoin out of my immediate uh point of view on the charts it's technically possible but the markets may not give it to you so we're accumulating right now today I did a live with Larry I've shared a lot of my insights on crypto over on his video go check that out but I'll just simply tell you that I was selling the rip today that's what you need to be mindful if you do not buy it when it's crashing and you think that you can get it later you're going to end up paying a lot more for it Bitcoin was right at 21k here for a number of days and Bam it's back up to 24K and we're going to see more and more of that and so when you're given these opportunities to take a position to enter in and you don't take them you're just going to end up fomoing later you're going to end up buying at a much higher price I knew that polygon Matic under a dollar come on that's a gift from the market now anytime that we get polygon Matic under a dollar I'm going to be buying thousands right now if it stays above a dollar I'm just going to keep my weekly purchases going I'm going to increase them in the range between a dollar to a dollar five a dollar five to a dollar ten and I will decrease them as we get over a dollar twenty and a dollar Thirty but it's not the only signal the Market's giving us let me go over some important uh points today I'm just going to read a couple important articles to you that I think you everybody needs to be paying attention to stock market internals are pretty bearish even as the Dow the S P 500 and the NASDAQ rise the gains seen in the big three stock market indexes aren't telling the real story as Market breadth data suggests the stock market is actually suffering a broad sell-off and so you've got to just be mindful even though you're seeing these bounces we're going back to the narrative that we saw in 2022 where you sell the rip okay so if you weren't a buyer on the dip you can't you don't want to be a buyer on the rip that's when smart money is going to be unloading and selling I got a quote today uh Mark minaravini uh posted something today and I want to read that to you guys he said that with last week's decline came an uptick in volatility we will not experience a sustainable easy dollar uptrend or a new bull market until volatility gets below the lowest levels achieved during this bear market so I just want to make a very strong point there Mark minaravini is one of these day traders that has beat the market he's turned Wall Street into an ATM he puts his debit card in he takes cash out every single day and he just made a very clear prediction he said that we will not be in a sustained bull market until we get below the lowest level of volatility that we saw in 2022 and 2023 which by I'm going to go by memory was was just beneath 17 on the vix so right now we have spiked up I believe that we're going to pull back I think things are going to calm down a little bit and then I think we're going to have some more volatile days ahead I think Mark minervini is pointing everybody back to volatility I have understood it for a long time that those who trade volatility they really are the smart money that's why I'm trying to talk to you guys about it that's why I'm trying to teach you guys about volatility and how we keep an eye on it because we want to be the smart money so we cannot be taking large positions on green days thinking that things are going higher we need to be watching volatility when volatility comes down that's when the market can go higher when volatility is spiking we need to be mindful that the market is preparing for more volatility and larger drops I'm going to briefly touch on Janet Yellen she came out over the weekend and said there's going to be no bailout for for the financial industry but then they turn right around got together with the fed and they've created a bailout so they basically come off and said you know what we will protect we will give a safety net to essentially the banks again here's the big news that we need to take away I'm going to read this to you guys stocks Advance Monday as Traders assessed a plan to backstop all the depositors in failed Silicon Valley bank and make additional funding available for other Banks some bet that the financial shock could cause the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes the FED also said it is creating a new bank term funding program aimed at safeguarding deposits the facility will offer loans of up to one year to Banks savings associations credit unions and other institutions so what they're doing is they're basically going to lend money to the institutions to enable them to be able to provide their depositors with the ability to withdraw funds so it's meant to be a stabilizing influence but here's the big point the massive point we have as I said before we've got the CPI coming out tomorrow we've got the PPI coming out Wednesday we have the fomc and the rate hike coming the 21st and the 22nd of this month and what this whole event with the banks has caused is has caused a lot of speculation on Wall Street that the FED may go back and begin to Pivot back towards being less hawkish being more dovish that he needs to be careful because of how these two Banks and these additional banks have begun to unwind he needs to be extremely careful not to put pressure on the financial industry to create some sort of a capitulation moment in essence he need to be he needs to be careful not to do what Silicon Valley Bank did which was to think that they were stronger than they really were only to find that there was a run on the bank the FED needs to be careful that he doesn't underestimate how afraid people are right now how high the fear is right now and create and be insensitive to what's going on in the financial institutions and create even a larger scale run on the banks and that's also what fed into crypto some people are speculating they say hey I'm gonna take my money out of the banks I'm gonna put it on bitcoin Bitcoins at all time lows perhaps it's safer for me to put it into Bitcoin put it on a cold storage wallet than for me to leave it over at a bank where I'm never going to get it out and I have no access to it that was another big point in my video yesterday access people want access to their money people don't want to be in that position they want to control their own future their own money their own timeline real quick let me pause before I give you some specific technicals on a couple stocks and the market as a whole if you need better trade tools there's a link in the top pin comment to the MooMoo Investment app they're offering up to 17 free stock for opening and funding an account you can click on the link to get the exact details of the offer I use MooMoo every day and I host a chat group there called stock Josh fam love and salute the members of the chat mumu's got great trade tools great news a great earnings calendar and I truly enjoy the app and use it every day to do research it's become part of my my everyday Norm in trading so if you are interested in getting better trade tools then go click the link in the top pin comment you can start investing today and then you can come find the chat group that I host over there okay I want to briefly talk about Alibaba Tesla and the S P 500 I said I'm going to give you a clear prediction we I told everybody on the Saturday and the Sunday video that we had to watch what the market did Monday and Tuesday because this is exactly what I expected the market to do it was dramatically oversold and it's about now we could still be bouncing and so there could be setting up an opportunity to get into trades like the sqq and to go and to buy puts because the market could be setting up for another big drop especially because we're facing the PPI and the CPI uh data reports that we've got this week so watch carefully to see that the Spy closes above 388 today we need to see a solid close above that and I must say very little bit about Baba you know that I am bullish on Baba I am still bullish on Baba I am like a pit bull I've got my teeth in that trade and I'm not going to let go I see very clearly a head and shoulders inverse pattern forming on Baba it could come back and hit 78 dollars or slightly above that to complete the full structure of the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern when you see an inverse Head and Shoulder shoulders patterns on the bottom of a chart that's been in Decline it typically signals the bottom and a major longer term reversal pattern going forward I said in one of my videos that you are not going to be able to get Alibaba underneath a hundred dollars forever you're not going to be able to it's not going to stay there and I think that we are very close to seeing an extremely strong setup pattern on the charts for Alibaba it could go as low as 78 dollars if you decide to get in around 78.23 you could put your stop loss right beneath 78 dollars maybe at 77.50 I have been in and out of the trade because I've gotten in I enjoyed one nice little pop-up when it pulled back into the 88 dollar range and then went up into the 90s I got one little pop-up and was able to get out and then another one I had a stop loss trigger and now I'm waiting for it to come down a little bit more and I'm telling you I'm going to watch in this like a hawk because I've traded Baba before and there's really big gains I believe that we are on the cusps of making for me this is exactly like when I called Baba down to 58 for me the new 58 dollars is 78 you guys have been advised I want to comment briefly on Tesla I called it from being under 200 1.96 I said that we were gonna get down to the support level of 171 dollars we've seen that happen it it flashed beneath it and now it's closed up above it so we are in my mind uh me leads me to believe that Tesla that was the place to buy and you got down to 171 that's when you started buying the stock and or the call options and uh now I think we're going to be enjoying a bounce so we have completed the trade range that I gave you guys now you know you have to use a stop loss right now because I am simultaneously telling you guys that we are in a declining moment volatility is not low enough to sustain a rising market but we are going to see individual stocks and cryptos take off like a rocket they're going to hit support and they're going to go higher now how high they go that will have to wait and see but they're definitely going to bounce off these levels and we're going to have these rip up rip your face off bear Market rally moments I think that's what we're seeing right now I we're a market in Decline but we're getting a rip your face off bear Market rally to knock out the Bears it was a bear trap bears are getting slaughtered and I think we're gonna then turn around and be given more opportunity for us to buy a little bit later but some of these stocks are going to bounce just like Baba just like Tesla just like we saw in crypto all right guys that is it for today as much as I could give you I'm sorry for another long video I hope this was helpful give me some feedback in the comments of what you guys are trading what information that you think you would like me to expound on as always I appreciate the likes that I get thank you for to getting me to 50 000 subscribers thank you for joining me on this journey and letting me be part of your journey and uh go ahead and hit subscribe if you've made it this far to the video and you're not subscribed and hit the all YouTube notifications Bell to officially be part of this daily conversation on stocks and crypto peace and blessings my friends we'll see you in the next video foreign
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