저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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미국 채권금리 급등과 Warsh 연준의장 취임 후 완화 편향 종료·긴축 편향 전환 우려가 시장 쟁점. 6월 금리 동결·긴축 편향 전환, 7월 인상 가능성 제시. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 장기화가 채권 매도 요인. 미국 10년물 4.25~4.75% 범위는 수용 가능, 5%면 매수 기회. 신흥국 증시는 한국·대만 AI 랠리 의존으로 단기 부진 가능. S&P500 연말 목표 8,250 상향, 조정은 단기 매수 기회. 이익 주도 랠리이나 AI 기업 상호 지분에 따른 이익 질 우려 언급.
다듬은 글
Good to get in Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research. Good morning, Ed. You know, the interesting part is that the street was hoping for some sort of de-escalation given the sort of spike that we've seen in the US bond yields. Do you think they're now comfortable with the bond yields being higher above that 4.5 mark?
Well, I think that it's interesting to see that bond yields spiked up on Friday. That was the day that Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, it was his first day in in office. And I think the concern in the bond market is that the Fed chair has been saying that he wants lower rates, which makes no sense in the current economic environment.
And I think it's becoming increasingly clear that the bond market is pushing the Fed to move from its easing bias not to a neutral bias, but to a tightening bias at the June meeting, and that will probably followed by a rate hike in at the July meeting. I think right now what we're seeing is the bond vigilantes have sort of taken control of the global bond market waiting for central bankers to take the inflation problem more seriously.
Mhm. Uh Ed, hi. Morning, Prashant here. You think Kevin Warsh will be allowed to allowed to do this? No. No, there's no way that he can be a lone dissenter. It's very very unlikely that he will be a lone dissenter. He's going to have no choice but to join I think the a consensus at the FOMC has to be that the uh easing bias is uh a long long overdue to be replaced by not a neutral bias, but by a tightening bias.
And I think he's he's going to have to go along with the flow, otherwise he's going to look uh uh I mean it's it's a will be a terrible way to start as a Fed chair dissenting from uh just about every other other vote. Yeah. Yeah. Uh the the moving UK, Japan, these are idiosyncratic country specific stuff.
Ed, are you Uh is there is there a US read through here as well? The big uh the yields which saw big moves. Well, it's it's definitely a global uh bond market sell-off. Bond yields are going up around the world, particularly in developed countries with uh large deficits, combined large deficits with increasing concerns that the uh Strait of Hormuz is going to remain closed uh uh for longer.
The longer it stays closed, the more the bond market's going to conclude that interest rates are going to have to be higher for longer. Um I'm I'm really relatively comfortable with a bond yield in the US being somewhere between 4 and a quarter and 4 and 3 quarters percent. There's a chance that it could get to 5% uh which is where we were briefly in 2023.
I think that would be an extraordinary uh buying opportunity. I do think that uh uh it's um interesting to see that the price of oil has stayed around 100. I know it's about 111 on a Brent basis, but it's extra- extraordinary that it's not even higher. And I suspect some of that is just the fact that China's economy is not doing all that well.
The latest data on China suggests that uh retail sales are extremely weak. Mm. Hi Ed. Good to see you again. Ed, you know, the Indian markets have underperformed, but with these yields spiking and the kind of move you're seeing on the dollar index as well, flows to the emerging markets will be really I mean, they'll desert us.
Uh what is your view on that? Uh uh how do you see flows moving globally? Well, the reality is the emerging market stock index, uh, the ETFs, for example, the uh, um, EEM and the EM XC excluding China, uh, they were very strong until, uh, last week, uh, when, uh, South Korea and Taiwan's s- indexes took a dive.
Uh, clearly the emerging markets uh, indexes, ETFs have been, uh, pushed higher, uh, by the, uh, AI trade as, uh, seen in South Korea and Taiwan. And, uh, both of those, uh, look like they're, uh, they they they they need to come to a rest here for a while. Uh, so the emerging markets overall as a as a class may, uh, underperform, uh, for for a while.
I I think, look, uh, uh, it's it would actually be a healthy thing if the markets took took a break here, and I think they will, and I'm talking about sort of a a rest rather than an actual break of in in market indexes. We did have a pullback earlier this year. We could have another pullback into the summer, uh, but I still think that, uh, uh, once things, uh, settle out, we're still in a bull market in stocks in the US and globally.
All right, so a quick word on the US market. You have got those levels bang on. In fact, the levels are coming sooner than, uh, what you were anticipating as well. What's the outlook with regard to the S&P 500? You normally have a level out there. And a quick word on KOSPI. Everyone's talking about this earnings growth and the likes, uh, you know, some are believing it's not very structural in nature, but still that market's available at at sub-10 times.
Your view on the KOSPI as well as the US market. Please go ahead. Yeah. Yeah, good good point. I mean, we've had an earnings-led melt-up is what I uh, call it, which is a lot healthier than a valuation-led melt-up. It's more sustainable, but some people are already questioning just the validity of the earnings.
Some of those earnings have actually been the AI companies having stakes in other AI companies and all those prices going up. So, it kind of uh feeds on itself and I think that's that's sort of a a concern here. Uh but uh Well, last week I changed my number for the S&P 500 to 8,250 by the end of the year.
I mean, maybe I made a top, but I don't think so. I think the earnings are there to justify the market continuing to to move higher. It did get up to 7,500 on Thursday. On Friday, it only sold off 1.2% and here all of a sudden everybody's talking about the end of the world and all kinds of bond crashes and calamities.
Uh I I think this will be a short-term buying opportunity again, particularly in the US stock market. Right. You know, just to carry forward what Prasanth had spoken about with regards to what Kevin Warsh would be allowed to do or not. How does all of this unravel because the bond markets are saying a certain thing, the president saying a certain thing, and amidst all of this there is you know, the uncertainty around the war and geopolitics.
How does all of this unravel according to you? Well, you know, Kevin Warsh is a very smart individual and he he's he knows markets, he understands markets and I think he he understands that what the bond markets are telling him is that he's actually got to pivot towards a hawkish stance and if he does that, there's a actually a better chance that bond yields will stop going up if the Fed takes over and be and and act responsibly with regards to inflation.
Uh no one wants to see a repeat of what happened in 2021 20 2022 and the Fed was 3 to 6 months too late in tightening. And I think I won't be surprised if I mean it's quite possible and I won't be surprised if the Fed actually raises rates by a quarter at the June meeting just to uh get the message across that they get it that they they're concerned about inflation.
They they want to take charge of it. They don't want to let the bond market do do all the heavy lifting. Okay, 8,200 that that accounts on the S&P in terms of a target and that that accounts on the Entropic IPO, the open AI IPO. That is 82 8200 post those mega IPOs or going into it. Yeah, well, we're going to have some very exciting IPOs for sure between SpaceX for sure.
Yeah. Uh I think that'll juice up the market quite quite a bit. I think it'll bring a lot of investors uh that maybe have been on the sidelines getting excited about the future. The future is exciting still not withstanding the the short-term anxieties. Absolutely. Uh well, it's been incredible and you know, the here's a stat Ed.
The S&P has added 30 trillion dollars in value since ChatGPT came out. Uh so, you know, we talk about seminal moments and we use that term around loosely. Well, I think that was a seminal moment, right? 30 trillion well, you know, Uh Prashant, uh a trillion here, a trillion there before you know it it's real money.
[sighs] Thank you very much. Great speaking with you. Appreciate your time here and it's always good speaking with you.
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