저자: Eddie · 한국인
요약 보기
미 증시 2개월 내 최대 하락, 나스닥 -2.3%, 반도체 매도 압력. 연준 매파 전환·대형기술주 매도·파생 만기 영향으로 5거래일 연속 하락. 엔비디아 실적 발표 전 단기 급등 시 매도 전략 제시. 엔비디아 시총 약 3.5조달러, PER 66 vs 애플 37, 올해 약 195% 상승으로 기대치 과열. 실적 발표 전 하락 리스크가 상승 가능성보다 크다고 봄.
다듬은 글
The stock market saw its sharpest decline in two months. Overall today, the Nasdaq fell the most, dropping 2.3%, with significant selling pressure particularly in the semiconductor sector. However, Tesla rose 3%; news that Trump's election would eliminate the $7,500 electric vehicle subsidy acted as a positive catalyst for the company.
Nevertheless, the market as a whole experienced a significant drop today, with heavy selling in the semiconductor sector. Nvidia is scheduled to announce its earnings next week, but prior to that, a company called Applied Metals released its results. Its stock fell as much as 10% during trading after a sluggish outlook for the first quarter of next year was released.
Furthermore, as Trump threatened to raise tariffs on China and other countries, the market is reflecting uncertainty that semiconductor revenue could decline. On top of that, Schumacher has not yet submitted its earnings report. Since there is a possibility of delisting if the report is not submitted by next Monday, this is creating anxiety in the semiconductor market and the tech sector, particularly the semiconductor market.
In any case, uncertainty remains regarding Nvidia's earnings announcement next Wednesday. We will look at the forecast for Nvidia's earnings report, and first... Before looking at that, let's do a chart analysis. If we analyze the chart, the Nasdaq has fallen for almost five consecutive days— one, two, three, four, five—and it dropped the most significantly on Friday.
Among the reasons for the stock price decline, Jeron 8 stated in a speech this week that there is no need to rush the interest rate date, and the probability of the December FOMC meeting maintaining the same rate is approaching 50-50. Additionally, other members are all taking a hawkish stance; generally, everyone is saying that because the economy is strong, there is no need to rush the rate cut.
Because of this, stock prices were weak this week, and on top of that, as "Trump trading" reversed, the stock price fell to near the levels seen after Trump's election. Therefore, what we can predict is that just as stock prices tend to fall sharply after a large short-term rise, there is also a possibility of a rebound after a large short-term fall.
So, if the stock price rebounds significantly early next week, perhaps on Monday or Tuesday— if a dead cap bounce occurs—a strategy of selling at that time would be good. This is because it is right before the announcement regarding Nvidia's launch, and if we look at Nvidia's market capitalization...
It is around $3.5 trillion; its market capitalization is higher than Apple's. If we look solely at net profit, Apple is number one with around $128 billion, while Nvidia is positioned below that with $61 billion in net profit. However, its market capitalization is higher. If we look at the Price-to-Earnings (PE), Apple's is 37, while Nvidia's is 66, resulting in a twofold difference.
Recently, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold Apple shares again. They reduced their holdings by 50%, leaving only 30%. They once held a 50% stake, but it has been reduced to 30%. Now, if we look at Nvidia's earnings reports, its growth potential is tremendous. Earnings per share skyrocketed starting from the first quarter of 2024, marking the beginning of the AI era.
The same applies to revenue; a significant gap began to emerge starting from the first quarter of 2024. Furthermore, looking at forecasts, revenue exceeded expectations in 16 out of 17 quarters. This means they surpass expectations every time they announce earnings. The operating profit margin is also...
except for the second quarter. Out of 17 quarters, results exceeded expectations in every quarter. The outlook for operating profit margins is also very high, and we expect it to continue rising until the second quarter of 2025. Furthermore, they are increasing their dividend payments. As a result of these tremendous earnings, the stock price has risen by nearly 200% this year.
To be precise, it has increased by 94.7%. To see how it has tripled, while the SNP 500, a market benchmark, rose by 24%, Nvidia’s return is 194%—almost eight times higher. Therefore, the earnings announcement is coming out amidst tremendous expectations. Moreover, since the Blackwell chip is included in the earnings this time, it is already expected to be extremely high.
Due to these high expectations, the stock price has already factored in the results, and the risk of a decline is now higher than the possibility of further rise. That is why it seems that selling pressure is emerging before the earnings announcement. As you can see on this daily chart, the QQQ has not closed higher on a single day this week; it has fallen on every single one of the five trading days.
I analyzed the reasons for this continuous decline in the stock price, which I have summarized into five reasons. You can give it a try. The reason the market fell on all five trading days this week is, firstly, that the market is no longer satisfied by just any positive news. If you look at the indicators released this week, they are all good: the CPI and Producer Price Index are low, and the labor market is strong.
However, there was an expectation that the Fed might become hawkish due to the overly strong economy, and indeed, the Fed has been hawkish every time it has made a statement. Therefore, market interest rates are very high. When market interest rates are high, liquidity circulates less. This can affect corporate earnings, and since this impacts earnings announcements, stock prices will fall in anticipation.
Also, there is a selling trend in Big Tech stocks in asset management disclosures. If you look at the disclosure from Warren Buss' Swede that I just showed you, they lowered their stake in Apple by 50% and reduced their weight by 50%. With Chevron Capital and T- Mobile Louisiana, you can see at a glance that there is more selling than buying.
Big Tech and S&P stocks have risen significantly this year, so they are being sold because their value is now considered too high. And this The reason stock prices dropped significantly on Friday may have been due to high volatility caused by derivative expirations. Lastly, the stock market rose too sharply in the short term.
While stock prices are on an upward trend, they don't just keep going up; they fluctuate up and down. So, it was just a brief dip after such a rapid rise. For these five reasons, the QQQ closed negative every single day this week. Trump 's credibility has now dropped by more than half. Therefore, to summarize this video, as the title suggests, it would be best to sell if it skyrockets next week.
First, it has risen too much in the short term, and with Nvidia's earnings announcement coming out next week, expectations for Nvidia are high. If the semiconductor market falls, there is a high possibility that it will drop along with the Nasdaq. Of course, if Nvidia delivers a very strong earnings report, the stock price is more likely to rise, but if the market rebounds from here, I recommend selling at this point.
Since the risk of falling is greater than the risk of rising further, I recommend selling when a significant rebound occurs. Therefore, there is a high probability that buying will come in next Monday and Tuesday. It has also been falling for five consecutive days. It has done that and also plummeted, so there is a high possibility of a dead cap bounce.
If that happens, I recommend selling a portion and enjoying the volatility before the NVIDIA earnings announcement—it will be like calm waves rather than a major storm. Have a great weekend, and I will see you again tomorrow with accurate market analysis.
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