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in the stock market we had one of the most exciting flat days in stock market history with some major stocks like Tesla hitting very important critical price targets so the question from here is are we going to see a Santa Claus rally so oday in spy we were up 0.14 and we had a very exciting flat day because even though spy did not move much we did have a lot of individual stock names moving quite a bit and Tesla stock by far is at the top of that list so with today's analysis I want to address the possibility of a Santa Claus rally and I now think there is a very good chance that we see a Santa Claus rally that should be starting late this week so for that reason I'm going to go ahead and draw the Santa Claus reality expectation and I think we will likely see that rally starting Thursday or Friday of this week and going into the first two trading days of January that could take spy all the way back into the 390s now this is mostly just speculation and I do want you to still manage a risk around this support Zone at 378 but as long as spy is above 378 I do think the sellers are getting exhausted and the Bulls are going to start getting some confidence which could lead to that Santa Claus rally the reason I believe this is because we are extremely oversold and we are now continuing to close below the lower Boulder band for the third day in a row and we are just way too far extended below a lot of these moving averages and I think we are at least due for a dead cat balance the dead cat balance should easily take us up to fill the Gap around 387 and if we continue to Rally through there and break through the resistance at 390 I will be looking for a retest of the resistance at 393 and the Gap fill at 396.
keep in mind the stock market is independent from everything else and it can do anything it wants to and it is 100 percent go going to be a technical move there is no reason trying to justify why the market would Rally from here other than 100 technical reasons only so don't try to cite what the FED said and don't try to cite what's going on with earnings this is 100 just reading what the chart is currently telling us so for that reason just manage your risk around this risk level at 378 knowing that if we break below that then we are very likely going to continue into a spiral that could lead to capitulation that could easily send spy back down to the 360s or even retesting the 52-week closing lows in the 350s we can never rule that out as a possible scenario but I do think there is a very good chance we are about to get a Santa Claus rally starting late this week into next week so to the upside manager risk around that resistance at 387 and 390 and above 390 the Bulls should be on Parade to continue pushing point zero eight percent today and the triple cues are holding well above that Gap fill at 268 and are now below the lower Bollinger band for the third day in a row only increasing the probability of the dead cat balance just like I said on spy I think this increases the probability we get that Santa Claus rally and that could take us all the way up to resistance at 280 and the gap for that 283.
so there is reason to believe we could get that Santa Claus rally late this week into next week and you can see the triple cues volume is starting to increase with today's price action now without a doubt we are still in a bear Trend so we are still expecting the Santa Claus rally to result in a lower high before we continue into that bear market so continue to respect the resistance at 280 and the Gap foot at 283.
the critical downside support to manager risk is going to be this Gap field Zone around 268 because if we break below that we will retest the 52-week lows at 260 and if we break below 260 we are looking for the next price Target down there at 250. in the Dow Jones we were up 0.31 today and the Dow Jones is trying to hold this breakout of that resistance trend line and now trying to turn that into support but still finding where resistance at the 50 EMA and strong resistance Zone around 330.
we have gaps to fill at 330.78 and 337.64 so the Santa Claus rally in the Dow Jones should take us up to fill those gaps the critical support to manage around in the Dow Jones is still going to be around 325 because if we break below that we are very likely coming back down to 319.5 on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were at 0.53 today and the small caps are getting way too oversold and due for a balance at least back up to 176 to 178 or likely going to fill the Gap just below 179 so there is looking more and more likely with these oversold conditions that we could get that Santa Claus rally next week and you're seeing it across the board and many big Tech names as well as the indices if we break down below the previous closing low at 172 look for the next leg lower down here around 167.
on the RK ETF we were down 0.16 percent and RK continues to close below that resistance at 32.5 and getting being very close to our next leg lower at 31.3 below that we could still go for the next leg at 30 but as you can tell the volume is dropping off so we are definitely seeing a lot less volume in this ETF even on a breakdown below support this very likely means retail has given up on this ETF and walked away from it completely because we are just not getting that capitulation on a breakdown below the 52-week low this is great news for you Bulls on the arc ETF in the long term because it means we are closer to a bottom than a top which means we could be seeing the end of the arcade bear Market in the very near future once we get a strong bounce off of one of these levels look for the confirmation that we're getting more bullish on a break above 34.6 and then the break above 38.
on the vix we were down 4.19 and the vix is either broken or there is just no fear related to this sell-off that we're getting from the vix because the vix is a great indicator of future volatility and fear and the vix is absolutely plummeting so look for the confirmation that the Bulls are are in full control when the vix breaks back down below 20 but do keep in mind at any point the vix could Spike all the way back above 24 and we could see volatility returning to this Market on bitcoin we're currently up 2.69 and Bitcoin is trying to bounce off of the lower Bollinger band but still finding resistance at the 20 simple moving average at 17 000.
critical resistance remains 17 550 and critical support remains 16 000. if we break support at 16 000 our next leg lower will be 14 395. on Amazon stock we were up point three two percent today and Amazon got the second day in a row closing below the 52-week low at 86 so that level is now going to be resistance if we get rejected from 86 our next leg low will be 80 and then 77 but you can see from the Bollinger Bands we do need time for those bands to expand to allow us to go any lower on a break above 86 you can use that level as support for a run-up possibly back up towards 91 and we're not getting bullish until we can get a break back over resistance at 97.
on Microsoft stock we were up 0.56 percent coming back up to critical resistance at 242 and failing to close above that level a rejection from here should allow the Bollinger Bands to expand as we head back down to fill the Gap around 228 you can get a lot more bullish if we can break above 242 and hold that level as support for at least a retest of the resistance around 248 to 252 and you need to stay risk off while we are below this resistance at 242.
on Nvidia stock we were down 1.04 percent and Nvidia is still heading lower and we are getting very oversold at these levels as we're coming into the critical support at 156. if we break below 156 we're going to see full-blown capitulation as we waterfall down to fill the Gap at 142 but if we can bounce off of 156 we can come back up towards this resistance at 167 and on a break above that resistance we can go fill the Gap at 174.
on Tesla stock we were down 8.05 percent today and we finally hit the double top price Target at 138 and we have just a little bit lower to go to completely fill the daily Gap at 137 0.48 as you can tell from the arrow we did arrive at the price Target a day late but we have clearly arrived at the price Target which means we can now delete this Arrow because this double top price target has been satisfied so for that reason I think this only increases the probability that we do get that Santa Claus rally and I do think the Santa Claus reality could be very nice to Tesla buyers because I think there's a good chance we can run all the way back up to 197 we're at a very minimum at least retest the neckline around 168.
so on Tesla stock we've had very high volume selling capitulation which is no surprise because this is a retail favorite and I think there's a lot of retailers that have now been shaken out of this stock and their Diamond hands have been proven to be paper so if you have been Panic selling Tesla you may regret it because these are levels that a lot of people have been waiting to buy and I do think you are going to start seeing a lot of buying pressure in this stock if I'm wrong we should easily slice down below 137 and start down towards 130 but I do believe there's a very good chance Tesla is about to go on a face ripping rally Watch The Upside resistance at 155 and the neckline at 168 and if we could break above that neckline we should have a very easy shot back up towards 197.
on Apple stock we were down point zero five percent today and apple is still extremely oversold below the lower Boulder band for the fourth day in a row and getting a very strong bounce off of that support at 130. now it's important that I zoom out here because you see that 130 is going to be our 52-week low back from June so if we break down below 130 we are very likely going to start seeing capitulation in Apple stock I don't think now is the time to see that capitulation but you can never completely rule it out so for that reason apple is a very critical support at 130 which means you can stay bullish on Apple as long as it's above 130.
below 130 you're looking for high volume selling which means you don't want any part of that as a bull so you need to set your risk at 130 and you can stay bullish as long as support is holding up resistance levels will be 133 in 135 and if we break above 135 look for a trip all the way back up to 141.
on the financials we were up 0.42 percent today as the financials are very likely getting that dead cat Bounce from being oversold and could start back up to fill the Gap around 34.5 the Industrials are up 0.12 today holding support at the 50 EMA and critical Gap fill of support at 97. the healthcare sector was down point zero two percent today holding that critical support at 134 and still hasn't got to thought 137.
the energy sector was up one and a half percent today holding support at 84 but overall still in a bear Trend so if we lose support at 84 we're looking for that next leg lower 80 dollars so jumping back over to the S P 500 without a doubt I think there is a very good chance that we are going to get a Santa Claus reality but it's not going to start until late this week and it should take us all the way through next week so if you're still shorting this Market keep in mind the odds are going against you the more oversold we get so consider locking in your bear profits and even consider start getting a lot more above critical support because I do think there is a very good chance we are going to see a rally from here you'll know instantly if we're wrong because we'll break down through the support and then you can take your losses and expect lower prices but I still think the odds are in the favor of the bulls that we start to Rally from here so manager risk and plan accordingly and prepare for a Santa Claus rally o ox
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