Peter Schiff & Dr. Doom warn of an inflationary depression as DXY is falling with S&P 500 and TLT

요약 보기

결론: 인플레이션이 계속되며 미국 경기침체는 심화될 것이고 주가 추가 하락 가능성이 크다는 비관적 전망. [인플레이션과 연준] Schiff는 연준이 인플레이션 억제에 실패했고 오히려 금리 인상 중단 시 달러 약세로 인플레이션이 더 가속될 것이라고 주장. 임금 상승은 인플레이션의 원인이 아니라 결과라고 봄. 연준의 12월 회의 메시지도 부정적으로 평가. [재정과 저축] 재정적자 확대와 정부 지출이 유지되는 한 인플레이션 억제가 어렵다고 주장. 저축률은 사상 최저, 소비자 차입은 사상 최고 수준이라 금리가 실질적으로 억제 효과를 내기 어렵다고 봄. 캔자스시티 연은 논문도 인용. [시장 전망] 오일은 배럴당 75달러 부근에서 유지되며 S&P500과 나스닥은 랠리가 약해 하락 흐름. TLT(장기국채)는 하락 추세로 11월 저점 재시험 가능성. 달러 인덱스도 하락 중. 달러 하락은 인플레이션 가속 요인으로 제시. [종목·자산 언급] S&P500: 추가 하락 전망(Dr. Doom은 약 25% 추가 폭락 예상, 내년 깊은 경기침체 시). TLT: 하락(재시험 가능성). 나스닥: 약세. 달러: 하락 전망. 유가: 75달러 수준 유지. 특정 개별주 추천은 없음. [리스크·조건] 인플레이션, 인공지능 관련 위험, 기후변화, 제3차 세계대전 가능성을 Dr. Doom이 복합 리스크로 제시. 경기침체는 얕지 않고 깊고 장기화될 것이라고 전망. 연준의 금리 인하는 실수가 될 것이라는 견해. [출연자 전망] Schiff: 실질금리 마이너스 지속, 고인플레 환경이 장기간 이어질 것. Brenner(사회자 측 패널)의 금리 인상 중단 전망은 Schiff가 반박.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Peter Schiff and Dr Doom warned the world is on a slow motion train wreck as inflation is not going away after 2023 recession stocks continue to be sold off on Monday morning confirming that this ABC pattern of Christmas rally is over compared to the summer rally this one is weaker especially in NASDAQ and s p 500.

02. for the Vic side it not only didn't move up it was sold down after stocks heading lower meanwhile oil is up still hanging around 75 dollars a barrel even long Bond TLT is going back to retest the 21 EMA from The macd bearish Crossing side you can see this move down coming from last Friday are we going back to retest the November low on TLT why is dollar Index down at the same day as both S P 500 and TLT are down will the S P 500 be able to make lower lows this year why does Peter Schiff think the game has changed inflation is not going away even after 2023 recession what slow motion train wreck was Dr Doom referring to kerel Peter Schiff joined Liz Clayman Andrew Brenner to talk about the December's Federal Reserve meeting and the messaging from Fed chair Jerome Powell Peter said investors need to understand that the game has changed inflation isn't going away they started off the segment by saying that the FED is awful in its projections and while it may try to raise rates again he wants to see the next CPI number adding I really think the FED is well over their skis Peter noted that Powell said raising rates may cause some pain but the American Consumer would feel more pain If the Fed failed to act and let inflation run out of control well I've got news for the consumer inflation is already out of control the FED failed to act in fact the actions of the FED created the inflation and it's going to get a lot worse Powell expressed concern that Rising wages in a tight labor market may keep pushing inflation higher Peter said Rising wages don't cause inflation inflation is what's causing wages to rise wages are just the price of Labor and prices are going up eventually the FED is going to stop fighting inflation when the recession gets much worse and in fact when it becomes a financial crisis Liz said the FED has been in a month's long fire fight against inflation do you not see any Improvement in what we have seen when it comes to inflation at least ticking downward a bit Peter said no you're always going to see an ebb and flow but in order to really fight inflation we would not only need much higher rates than the rates we have right now because rates need to be enough above inflation to encourage savings again and our savings rate is basically at a record low and consumer borrowing is at a record high so that is not helping but also government spending continues to increase budget deficits continue to rise you're not going to fight inflation unless you get cuts to government spending the central bank has even conceded this fact in a paper published by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank in a nutshell the authors argue that the FED can control inflation alone U.S government fiscal policy contributes to inflationary pressure and makes it impossible for the FED to do its job Trend inflation is fully controlled by the monetary Authority only when public debt can be successfully stabilized by credible future fiscal plans yeah when the fiscal Authority is not perceived as fully responsible for covering the existing fiscal imbalances the private sector expects that inflation will rise to ensure sustainability of national debt as a result a large fiscal imbalance combined with a weakening fiscal credibility May lend Trend inflation to drift away from the long run Target chosen by the Fed Peter said we're still getting stimulata fiscal policy coming out of Washington D.C everything is screaming more inflation and not less Brenner countered that the money supply is coming down we're seeing signs of economic slowdown and price inflation is easing in some sectors he thinks the FED is going to back off from their rate increases are projected to end Peter said investors need to recognize that the game has changed we're going to be living in a high inflation environment for the foreseeable future rates are not going back down to zero but they're still going to be negative in real terms Peter also emphasized that the decline of the dollar is going to kick into a higher gear when the FED does not stop raising rates because the economy is too weak and the central bank has bigger things to worry about than inflation during the FED meeting Powell did say that the central bank will begin to hike at a slower Pace in order to feel its way forward Brenner said he thinks Powell realizes he has moved too far too fast he also said there's a big mistake out there waiting to happen Peter said he agrees the FED is going to ease but that will be a mistake it hasn't gone far enough the problem is it left interest rates too low for too long it already expanded the money supply so much that we haven't even had enough price increases to catch up with the previous expansion of the money supply so even if the money supply is growing more slowly now it doesn't matter there is so much inflation already in the pipeline and the only thing that was keeping our inflation rate lower was the fact that the dollar was Rising when everybody thought the FED would quit hiking but now that the dollar is falling that is going to add fuel to the inflation fire I think it's going to burn a lot hotter in 2023 but the economy is going to cool off even more as inflation heats up and that is a no-win situation for the Fed and for the country unfortunately Dr Doom said a convergence of old and new problems pose risks to the world top economist nuriel robini think that really the world is on a slow motion train wreck there are major new threats that did not exist before and they're building up and we're doing very little about them he warned that a mix of inflation artificial intelligence and climate change and the risk of a World War III all stand to have enormous Global impact we must learn to live on high alert he said adding we will need luck to get through this he warned that the oncoming economic downturn will be severe no this is not going to be a short and shallow recession it's going to be a deep and protracted he said he predicted the S P 500 will crash another 25 percent when the U.S economy fall into a deep hole recession next year and this is order your copy for Christmas and my client Lee Vincent's the three most important influencers you need to meet and my book abundance all awesome book