저자: MichaelTyler/주발언DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 중국 수요 악재 소멸과 Tesla 판매 회복 조짐을 근거로 2024년 하반기 대형 랠리를 예상함. 트럼프 당선 시 EV 보조금 축소는 테슬라에 호재로 봄. 진행자는 금리 인하 기대와 Q2 인도량 상회 가능성을 근거로 2025년 신고가 가능성을 주장. 금리 인하가 장기 성장주에 유리하다는 논리 제시. 7월 2일 인도량은 약 42~45만대로 전망. 자동매매 등 예측 외 시장 리스크(조정·급락 시나리오)도 함께 언급.
다듬은 글
you guys have to see what Dan IES just said about Tesla stock in a massive run that will occur in the second half of this year joining us now is the aforementioned Dan IES managing director of course at wed Bush what do you mean the recovery story has begun The Comeback story for need a comeback I think it did because they had massive headwinds in China and now we're seeing the comeback play out now two c deliveries next week I think that's really going to be the last of really some of the worst that we've seen in China we're starting to see a mini recovery in China The Comeback Kid story for musk is starting with of course robotx a day in August I believe this is a stock that's going to have a massive run uh second half of the year what do you think has been then that headwind that you talked about is there one thing you could point to look EV demands clearly been soft globally but it's really about China I mean China was a mass of taln for years became a headwind but now Brian you're not seeing those price Cuts anymore so you're starting to see stabilization China demand starting to increase and I think the Stock's telling you and we believe next week's just another sign of it is that the worst is in the rear view mirror for mus contesa I want to go back and and hope you don't mind you're a good guy and you roll with things we just you heard the top of the show okay and I built these Trump and Biden portfolios and I had in my original one I had Tesla cuz I thought if and we decided H we don't not really sure with Tesla you could here's if if Trump wins and and rolls back some of these Eevee Financial incentives don't know if he will but let's say he did would Tesla have a natural advantage over its customers because of its price point in other words are they kind of dare I say a trumpy portfolio type company oh I'd say I mean Trump PR and I'd say it's bull a trump presidency would at the end of the day be bullish for Tesla negative for EVS then we saw that when you showed that across well rivy and others but and I think it also speaks to the Biden Administration musk is really been an afterthought in a trump Administration he's been actively ignored I mean President Biden I think two weeks ago tweeting out something like we're going to make EVS in America and like he got ratioed and people are like um Tesla and I already does and I think if Trump's in the White House musk gets more front and center that's bullish for Tesla especially if you start to see those EV rebates roll back negative for the industry bullish for Tesla but that's the point if something is somebody buys decides to buy s an EV Silverado from GM in part because they get 7500 bucks right if that goes away they might say yeah I just can't pay for that you know I'm going to go with the model X and they've already scale if you look at their scale and you look at their pricing they are in a massive position of strength and that's why I think as as you start see more signs a trump presidency that is bullish for Tesla so I think that was a great clip from Dan Ives on CNBC the one thing that I was you know hoping that they mentioned in regards to the politics of Biden or Trump I like to stay apolitical here on this channel I think no matter what stocks tend to do well under Democratic or Republican president it really doesn't matter too much but one thing that I thought Dan I should have mentioned and give him a little bit more time he probably would have if you get a trump presidency which is the most likely scenario at this point according to the polls and your betting odds have Trump winning by about 60% odds you are going to get a lot more rate cuts under a trump presidency than a Biden presidency Clearly Now Trump also pays very close attention to the stock market to some degree judges his presidency based on markets and that can overall be a huge positive for Tesla as rates start to come down that will help margins increase because Tesla will not have to spend as much money buying down interest rates like they're doing currently on the model y as well as the model 3 it should really help demand pick up and I guess the question then is what does inflation do I think at that point inflation will probably be defeated anyways by the beginning or mid 20125 so more Cuts will be a positive for Tesla now Cuts as far as interest rate cuts from a demand perspective are positive but also for long duration growth stocks Tesla is a long dur ation growth stock Tesla is a 10 20 year growth stock that will do very well during that period of time again I'm not a financial adviser that's just my opinion I'm sure that's your opinion as well but when rates are this high and you can get 5% for nothing risk-free it makes it a lot harder to go out and buy a 10 20 year growth stock like a Tesla because guaranteed if you sit in cash over 10 years at this point you're going to get 50% % return on your money risk-free so you really have to have a compelling story to get people to buy into long duration growth stocks when rates are this high but when rates start to come down you're going to see a lot of money start flowing into Tesla and that's going to be a huge positive for Tesla's stock and overall Tesla's business now Gary black just wrote on X he says Tesla with sentiment so poor for next Tuesday's Q2 deliveries Wall Street consensus around around 440,000 that's netive 6% year-over year but the whisper number the most recent consensus closer to 420,000 that would be negative 10% year-over-year there's a decent chance of an upside surprise on Tuesday especially if we get another 17.5 th000 weekly registrations out of China also with the last two days of the quarter being over the weekend there's more opportunity to pull in deliveries and we have seen this this last minute push over in China to especially get cars delivered to customers and I'm pretty optimistic that the IR compiled estimates for Tesla's deliveries are going to come in closer to about 410 415 maybe 420,000 and Tesla should be able to beat those easily now there's there's two different things to really know here you have the year-over-year numbers which are going to be negative minus any kind of big surprise from the US we don't get a lot of data from the US to be positive on a year-over-year basis you're going to have to come in over 400 67,000 vehicles but again when estimates are -10 -6 7 8% you could actually get an upside surprise there maybe come in at Nega 5% year-over year that would be a big surprise for Tesla stock but I do think your quarter over quarter numbers are going to look really good because last quarter you had what 386,000 deliveries if you come in at 430 440,000 that's going to be some really strong quarter over quarter growth now what what does Wall Street pay more attention to the quarter over quarter number or the year-over-year number I think that's hard to say it's kind of like inflation what matters most well month over month matters most but people also pay attention to year over year so it wouldn't surprise me if you actually get more people paying attention to the quarter over quarter growth that could be 10 20 20% 10 15 20% and that could also be seen as a big positive for Tesla stock now I think we are at a very very interesting inflection point in our markets because if you take a look at the data that we had on Friday um and we'll look at that here in just a second you had big tech stocks sell off big time you had Apple selling off 1.63% and a lot of the selling happened in the last 30 minutes of trading or so you had Nvidia down 0.36% a lot of that happened in the last 30 minutes or so of trading Google was down 1.84% again a lot of that happened in the last 30 minutes same for Amazon and same for all of your big tech stocks now why this is important is because on Friday was the last day of Q2 so what hedge funds and institutions were doing is locking in profits and repositioning into other areas take notice Tesla was actually green up 0.23% following a couple of days worth of a rally and and let's be honest Tesla's rallied from $138 180 per share up to this recent high that you hit on Friday of $23 that's a decent you know bottom to top move on a percentage basis that is about a 46% rally from the lows to where you just hit the highs on Friday you did not see profit taking in Tesla in fact it looks like hedge funds and institutions positioned into Tesla positioned into Tesla and you can see the last 30 minutes or so of trading for Tesla Tesla stock actually went up over $3 per share which is a great sign for what could be to come in the next quarter because again if they're positioning into Tesla for Q3 that probably means more money is going to position into Tesla it probably means Tesla stock is going to do well now as I shared in the in the last video you did see the overall selling in Tech the NASDAQ was down 0.71% S&P down 0.41% and the Dallas down 0.12 2% you also did have the Russell 2000 that was up about a half of 1% and if you take a look at the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average you actually did see a broadening out of our markets on Friday even though the NASDAQ was down almost 1% the S&P was down almost a half of 1% you actually had 2.59% of all stocks breaking above their 50-day moving average that that was a that was a sign of a rotation number one but a strong longer Market than not a market that was doomed for failure you wouldn't have seen the average stock rise and really the biggest question from here is do we get a correction or do we get a crash now it's almost it's it's it's almost a statistical guarantee that we will get a correction between now and the election itself that would be a 10% pullback on average you get about a 133% pullback um during election years but we could see a 30 plus% crash if it looks like we're going into a recession we'll talk about that a little bit more in the next video I do think at this point one of two things happens in our markets and specifically with Tesla number one is you get a correction you get some selling in big Tech things kind of um come in line with estimates or underwhelm a little bit for earnings expectations are Skyhigh it's going to be hard to even meet expectations and you probably get a correction broad-based but you could also see the internals of the markets start to do much better like what we seen on Friday you could actually see a correction where big Tech Falls because expectations are too high and those stocks are too high and the rest of the markets actually rip higher that's the potential outcome so basically a broadening out of our markets is scenario number one scenario number two is an outright just full-on crash if the economy does weaken too much and that's why we want to watch the economic data and be prepared to be Nimble all it's going to take is a really low or negative non-farm payrolls report and markets are going to freak out that would probably lead to a 15 to 20% Crash from here just just one really bad non-farm payrolls report because you know again what tends to happen is when you get a bad one you tend to get a series of bad ones and the labor market can weaken quickly um when that ultimately happens now we'll talk about this more in the next video but I think either way you put it by the end of this year a especially after the election especially if T-man wins you're going to start pricing at a lot more Cuts you're going to start um pricing in a better interest rate environment for Tesla and you can start to Value Tesla's longer-term growth prospects like Optimus and Robo taxi a lot higher and and and that will have a positive impact on Tesla stock so Dan IES believes Tesla is going to see a massive rally here in the second half of this year and that's possible that that that really is possible especially after the election the last you know two months of this year could be very strong but but I actually think 2025 is going to be way stronger and I think 2025 is when I'm expecting Tesla can hit new all-time highs and I don't think it has to be like too far into 2025 I think the first quarter second quarter of 2025 you could hit that all-time high level especially depending on what happen happens with Robo taxi day on August 8th that could definitely cause a reating a reating in Tesla and uh Wall Street to start paying a little bit more attention to Tesla's real world AI deployments like Rubble taxi and Optimus so I am very encouraged with what we have seen recently for Tesla I do think July 2nd Tesla's going to come out with a delivery number closer to about 440,000 deliveries um as high as 450 wouldn't surprise me as low as 4 20 wouldn't surprise me and I think either you know on the low side or the high side it's still going to be seen as positive again because that month over month growth rate is going to look really good and again you see what Tesla's putting up the kind of numbers Tesla's putting up in an environment that is not favorable for Autos right not at all with rates the way they are the the highest rates in Tesla's business history and Tesla's still putting up these numbers just imagine when rates start to fall I think I think it's only a matter of time before Tesla really starts to get it shine back and starts to become a market leader again and ultimately break above that one trillion doll market cap and go on its way to 2345 trillion so let me know what you think about this information Down Below in the comment section hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel stay tuned to the channel for the next video we will be going over all kinds of different things that I think you need to know as well heading into the second half of this year that video comes out at 8:00 pm.
Eastern Standard Time most importantly though enjoy your weekends and I will see you in the next one
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