저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라를 가장 저평가된 AI 주식으로 보며 AI 사업가치 1~2조달러, 로보택시 출시(8월 8일 이벤트) 기대를 강조. 2024년 주가는 30% 이상 하락했으나 12~18개월 내 2배 상승 가능성 언급. 2분기 인도량은 낙관적 시나리오(430~450k)이며 7월 2일 발표가 핵심 모멘텀. 단기적으로는 광범위한 시장 조정(대선 전 1~3개월) 가능성도 인정. 진행자는 테슬라 P/E 확장(100배 가능성)과 주가 $400~600 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
holy smokes Dan Ives went on CNBC last night and dropped some bombs for Tesla stock investors I mean this was not your normal Dan Ives that gets on CNBC and says the same thing over and over again Dan IES is talking about Tesla stock doubling up in the next 12 months a 1 to2 trillion valuation for AI a new growth Renaissance that is coming for Tesla stock and much more this I think is a must watch interview for all Tesla stock investors over the past year Dan Ives has a 53% success rate and is ranked 1,400 out of 8,900 Wall Street analysts if you look at Wall Street experts he's ranked 3,398 out of 38,000 so he is in the top 10% of Wall Street analy and that's just looking at over the past year if you pull this out to a five or 10e time Horizon he's in the top 2% of Wall Street analysts me now to make his case W bush securi managing director Dan IES just like you know we talk about these big pay packages it's like billion dollars and it really is that but to the point if Robo taxi is the next big thing do you think that this is the man who can lead Tesla to the Future and does does Robo taxi is that the thing that's going to make Tesla regain its trillion dollar market musk is Tesla Tesla is musk and I think ultimately right now Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market I I believe the AI component of Tesla could be worth one to two trillion alone and this that's to in my view this is really the beginning of what is going to be just a massive stage of growth for musk and Tesla August 8th in my opinion will be a historical day for TLA okay they unveil it August 8th any idea when production starts when we would actually see Robo taxis on the road look I think over the next like 18 months I mean this is something we're not talking 3 four years away I think this is the start of what's going to be not just Robo taxis but when you talk about full self-driving and autonomous I Tesla is an autonomous AI company a disruptive Tech and I think we will be looking at ultimately a stop that could potentially double over the next 12 18 months we have a headline today from cnbc.com Laura kadne according to internal me uh memos Tesla's Workforce has shrunk by 14% since Elon Musk announced layoffs back in April in December Tesla employed a little more than 140,000 people worldwide today it's 121,000 what do the layoffs mean to you in terms of resources aimed at growth and cost efficiency yeah well they've had to rip the Band-Aid off because we've seen softer demand globally especially in China that's the hearts and lungs of the Tesla store but I think they have been proactive and even though we're not expecting fireworks for the June quarter this will pay dividends it's what musk and Tesla have needed to do an adult need to be in the room and must stepped up and I believe right now when we look at the Tesla story they've gone through some Category 5 hurricane but I think on the other side of this now is going to be that Cinderella Story will return to Tesla and I think AI is going to be the key you know there was a lot of hype over cybertruck when the launch happened when it rolled out off of the production floor do you think expectations and the hype around Tesla itself make the the roll out of Robo taxi problematic I think you're going to have a brighter spot like like we see with musk and Tesla but from a core technology perspective I believe this is really going to be the start of what's going to be a renaissance of growth for Tesla not just on autonomous but even on a demand perspective meanwhile you've got like Ferrari moving into the EV space the company's offering a posh new electric vehicle sports car that comes at a price tag of I'm going to have I'm going to choke on this too half a million dollars set to be released next year cnbc's Robert Frank sat down with Ferrari CEO Benedito Vig and says well here's what he said about the car and the demand for EVS you know the final judge will be the client but I can tell you that several people more people start to to see to try our electric Ferrari and they have a good feeling I believe that in the future we will have client that today are buying our car that we will s they will switch to Electric will they I think they will and I think what it this does when you have a brand like Ferrari making a bet like this it shows where the world's heading and I think their hedge and their bent in my opinion Ferrari it's the gold standard and this is an important something that a few years ago never thought that you'd see this headline let me know what you guys think about that interview Down Below in the comment section I'll tell you my personal opinion is wow for a wall analysts to be so spoton on Tesla it's pretty rare and Dan Ives sounds very bullish on Tesla stock considering this is the first time I can recall he's going on live television talking about Tesla after the shareholder meeting and elon's comp package being reapproved yes the courts need to officially reapproved comp package but it's almost like a done deal considering Elon Musk said onx yesterday that he will do his utmost to ensure that their faith is rewarded this is really in in regards to the retail investors and institutions that put their confidence with Elon Musk and reinstated his comp package I mean I don't like to put all my eggs in one basket either but if I was going to and yes I'm like 40% all in on Tesla which is basically all in if 40% of your portfolio is in Tesla I would put him with Elon like if I had to choose one person yeah take my basket of eggs Elon Musk things can take some time but as Elon said on the shareholder meeting he always delivers now into specific regards of what I expect next for Tesla stock I am expecting that Tesla will be somewhat subject to what happens in the broader markets for a period of time meaning if Nvidia AI stocks or the broader markets sell off there's not much that Tesla can do to prevent that brought markets sell off Tesla Stock's going to sell off if broader markets rally Tesla's probably going to Rally until at least July second which we do have analyst consensus for Q2 delivery numbers at about 440,000 the IR compiled estimate is a little bit more important because that's the investor compiled estimates for Tesla deliveries analyst and investors they're much different groups of people analysts cover a stock and invest investors actually invest in a stock so it's more important what investors think deliveries are going to be in which it's most likely that the IR compiled estimate for Tesla deliveries will be closer to 420,000 415,000 maybe even as low as 410,000 and I'm confident Tesla's going to come in with probably a 430 to 450,000 number and that's going to be seen as good news even though it's going to be negative year-over-year because last year Q2 was a strong quarter coming in with over 460,000 deliveries it's still going to be better than what Wall Street was expecting and considering Tesla stock is priced for not a great outcome I think you could be set up for an upside surprise around July 2nd when we get Tesla's Q2 delivery number now earnings will also be important but I want to remind you that the biggest kind of new information is that delivery number and it takes a lot of the hype or fear out of Tesla earnings because if Tesla has a good delivery number they're going to have good earnings the question then becomes what are margins like and you could see in the last quarter in Q2 Tesla really did not cut prices at all a little bit Tesla was really buying down the interest rate which is kind of like cutting prices instead of cutting the price you're buying down the interest rate and we don't have a definitive answer to how much that costed Tesla but it does look like demand has picked up as per the Google Trends data that is at 5year highs so I'm also confident that you are going to see better than expected margins specifically on Tesla earnings and probably a lot more optimistic of an Elon Musk and really the overall Tesla management team so after July 2nd Tesla can start moving a little bit more independently than the bro markets again for Better or For Worse now the way I look at the broader markets really no matter what happens it's a win-win for Tesla and let me explain whether markets continue to Roar higher the economy holds up the FED does magically cut rates at the right time that's good for Tesla you will see a broadening out of our markets and potentially no crash at all or in the better case scenario in my personal opinion you do see the economy weaken you see the FED make an error Tesla goes on a deep discount AKA markets crash we get to buy more Tesla stock and one of the last great buying opportunities that we are going to see over the next 5 10 years and we start a massive bull market a broad-based bull market a strong bull market and hopefully avoid a recession that would be the more optimistic scenario but either way I'm comfortable with both Tesla can sell off off and I'll buy more and we'll set ourselves up for a broad-based market recovery and a lot healthier of a market overall and I do think to some extent AI will prove to be a little bit more hype than material in the short term because the reality is the markets are expecting Microsoft Google all these other companies that are deemed you know kind of beneficiaries to AI to start putting up AI results and selling products and services with AI and we all know that's not happening on any kind of material scale so yes eventually there will be a day of reckoning for AI and for your AI sympathies like your big Tech but then the Market's interest will turn into companies that are really applying AI that are really bringing in AI dollars and I think at this point actually I know for a fact Tesla is bringing in the most AI dollars out of any other company I mean chat GPT may be similar to Tesla but I still think Tesla's winning that race by probably a long shot and as Dan I've said the headline of that clip was Tesla is the most undervalued AI stock in the markets and that is true the markets will realize that and Tesla will be rewarded favorably for him see and the beautiful thing about that is normally when the story is is is growing the story is starting for a company meaning Robo taxis investors are investing in something that is a year down the line 18 months two years down the line the multiple can get large there can be a lot of speculation because we just don't know how big that will be and when you're thinking about something that has a tamam the size of Robo taxis you can assign basically whatever margin you want on Tesla today and justifiably make it make sense especially when the FED starts to cut rates and we get a little bit more clarity on the economic situation that's why it's normal common for a company to actually see its P multiple compress as you start to get larger growth look at Nvidia Nvidia has traded at 60 times earnings for a long time now it's trading at 30 times earnings now some of that could be the markets being a little bit cautious because eventually the grow will slow down and the multiple you know could expand you know get bigger a little bit but that's usually what happens as companies get larger they get more profitable they become more successful the margin's actually the uh P multiple actually falls so Tesla could really see a ramp up of a p multiple over the next 12 really 24 months but I would expect this could happen over the next 12 months meaning for an example Tesla's currently trading with a p multiple of closer to about 55 is you could see that go to 100 pretty easily back in 2020 2021 Tesla's P multiple was 1,200 what's to say it couldn't go back to 100 with $4 of of eps next year let's call it that and you're looking at Tesla that's a $400 company not to mention if the P multiple goes to 100 and EPS expectations for 2025 or let's say a year from now markets start to look out another year let's say 2026 EPS is expected at $6 per share assign a 100 times multiple on that and Tesla stock all of a sudden is $600 per share you could start to look at some pretty crazy returns as that multiple does start to expand as the markets start to realize Tesla is by far the biggest realworld use case investment for AI which that never made a lot of sense to me because this seems obvious to us but Wall Street let's just be honest they're not the smartest people some of them are are are are geniuses but they're not the smartest people and a lot of Wall Street has a very shortterm kind of way of thinking they would rather you know get 50% and put their money up for a year to impress their clients rather than invest their money for 3 four 5 years and make 1,000% and that's why wall Street's usually late to things and I think they're already late to Tesla let alone as Tesla does go higher from here over the next couple of months as I think is is reasonably possible again the broader markets what happens with the economy the FED economic data earnings AI all of that's going to affect Tesla as well but the fact of the matter is Tesla's still down over 30% in 2024 alone and you're much better priced for a recession for fed error for AI kind of dissolving in front of us I mean Tesla is not getting any AI love from the AI recent uh you know hype or or momentum in our markets Tesla's pretty well priced for a bad outcome and I don't know about you guys but I like buying stocks that are mispriced and trading cheaper than where I think they should be and that is Tesla by a long shot so I kind of spilled the beans already but I do think give it a year from now Tesla stock could easily be a 400 five $600 stock I mean Dan IES says you could see a double up in Tesla in the next 12 to 18 months that would put Tesla at about $380 per share along the lines of you know where his price Target is I I I think that's actually much higher than where his price Target is I think his price Target is 300 now I want to say but Danes thinks that even Tesla can hit roughly $400 within the next 12 18 months I think it could go probably a little bit higher than that especially if we start to get some real rate Cuts so let me know what you think about all of this information Down Below in the comments section again just to be very clear I'm not a financial advisor I not a financial planner I don't know what's going to happen in the markets I do think broadly speaking the risk reward is pretty bad in equities you do have the markets expecting some historically High rates of growth for your earnings and usually when expectations are this High it does set you up for a little bit of disappointment so don't be surprised if stocks do sell off over the next 1 to 3 months probably before the election and then well historically stocks rally after the election and that's when the FED should be cutting rates and hopefully the economy is not in the the gutters by then and if if that's not the case if the economy is still doing fine after the election then I think markets overall will be okay but this information is subject to be wrong it's subject to change and I could flip-flop my opinion on the first bit of good or bad data so that is always a possibility as well you have to have confidence in what you are investing in let me know what you are investing in Down Below in the comment section do me a quick favor as well it's cost you nothing it's $3.99 hit the like button and subscribe to the channel thank you for doing that if you guys also want to come trade with us live in real time check out that link Down Below in the description of this video I did go ahead and make an earnings trade for next week and that is on FedEx if you guys want to see that trade check it out down below in the description of this video most importantly forget all of that mumbo jumbo you guys have a great rest of your weekend and I will see you in the next one
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