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What you don't know is far greater than anything you know about what will happen in the future. The vulnerability of assets to rising interest rates is something I think is worth paying attention to. Where what happens is what happens if you just look at the gold in the portfolio. Debt, dollar, your money.
Ray Dalio sees risks that investors can't afford to ignore. Gold, bonds, bitcoin and a world drowning in debt. Every part of this conversation brings something important to the table, so stay until the last few minutes. Ray shares important insights on global risks and protecting your wealth. Listen carefully.
This can change the way you view your own money. This is what usually leads to the bubble swelling and bursting. So, this is a common dynamic, and we have a lot of common dynamics like this: creating a bubble and then bursting it. And we create more debt and more, um, wealth. And so, if you know that if you had a wealth tax or you had to pay debt, you would be in a situation where you would have this ingredient.
We have it in place. Yes , I think everyone thinks about everything from a long-term ownership perspective. I think about this from a short position as well. Um, and that's why I'm betting against debt. Good. Um, in other words, um , but let's say for most people who won't open long and short positions on different things.
Um, I think you should think about diversification first. And I would emphasize, um, that the vulnerability of assets to rising interest rates is something that I think needs to be considered. And that when there is a lot of debt, over time, um, there is a devaluation of money. But debt is money, and money is debt.
What I mean by debt is money and money is debt. I mean, debt: when you hold a debt asset, you have someone's promise to give you money. And how much that money is worth determines what exactly you get. And so, um, debt is money that has to come in. And how much does it cost? And so when you devalue it.
So, when you have a lot of debt, there is a, um, desire to devalue it. This is one thing I learned when I worked as a clerk at the stock exchange. And so when you hold it as a debt asset, I don't think it's a good asset. And this is the combination of circumstances now, where if you just look at gold in a portfolio and say, "I'm going to choose a bond- stock portfolio where the majority of the assets are in this class." Um, in the portfolio , or even the real estate in that portfolio, the one asset that is money, that is, hard currency, and is also an effective means of diversification—is gold.
If you said, "I want to get the best risk- reward ratio." You would add an element of gold to it. But what amount will be the corresponding balance ? From 5% to 15%—this is, in other words, a balanced portfolio. I believe it should be part of the portfolio. I have had about 1% of my portfolio invested in Bitcoin for a long time.
Not that I ever considered him a great asset. I want to diversify, I wanted a little bit of diversification, you know, what would you hold as your hedge money, as an alternative currency ? So, to diversify the position in gold a little. I have never been a big fan of Bitcoin, and there are several reasons for that.
I believe that the government can influence whether you have it or not. This is not a private asset. You can follow him. And there is also the question of whether it can be broken. And I think that now, with the advent of AI, the question of evil is becoming relevant. So I wouldn't advise it, but there are some assets that I hold a little bit as a means of diversification.
Those that will be positively impacted by AI are companies that will undergo transformation: they will either increase sales or reduce costs. I don't think so, I think they are misjudged. And I think hyperscalers and others, you know, that you're betting big on in AI, they're overvalued. They are expensive.
But I would say if you keep an eye on where the transformations will take place. So, there will be major upheavals in these areas . I think there are many areas where this will happen. And you can track them based on income, expenses, and even how much they invest in it . And in different parts of the world too.
I mean, the vast majority of my portfolio, or the portfolio that I consider important, will still remain in the United States because that's where the largest capital markets are. But there are also parts of the world where a lot of change is happening. As, for example, in many ASEAN countries, that is, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
And there are three main things that I look at when assessing the health of a country. So, you can look at their finances. And I believe that where there are imbalances, there are imbalances of supply and demand, especially, say, with respect to capital. I wonder if they have a surplus? I think we are in a transition period where countries with surpluses, those with excess capital, will be in a better position.
And adjustments await us. Then I look at whether they are innovative. Are they on the crest of the wave, or are they being washed back by the wave? So when I look at the countries and regions that are making these transitions. I think Singapore and parts of the Middle East are very interesting, especially the UAE, which is making great progress in building data centers and so on.
I think there are separate points in Europe when it comes to companies in Europe. But I think you have to be very selective. But the main thing I want to have is not just stocks. I want to have assets to protect against inflation. So, to some extent gold, to some extent bonds, are indexed to inflation.
I think leveraged bonds indexed to inflation are an interesting mix because the cash yield will be relatively low. The real yield on inflation-indexed bonds is currently around 3%—a pretty good real yield. And I think inflationary pressures will push that further. That's why I'm looking at these different types of assets.
When it comes to portfolio balance, I think what you don't know is far more important than what you know about future events. But I really think we have a debt problem. And that's why when I think about bonds, why I'm skeptical about them, I think, is essentially being short on debt relative to other assets.
I believe that you need to be very well diversified. I think that's the main thing, so when I think about how this will unfold. As I said, I am very concerned that the midterm elections will cause internal conflict. I think there will be a big conflict, impeachment— it doesn't necessarily mean removal from office, but it will be a big conflict.
I believe that the supply and demand situation will worsen during this period. Let's say, from this election until the next presidential election. I think that I think that this, um, conflict in a world where tests of strength are taking place— it's a complicated set of circumstances. So, I would say, if you're asking about my forecast, that the period from, um, the election and right after it, I consider risky.
But that doesn't mean you shouldn't, you know, the answer remains the same as if you didn't know what it means to have some diversification. Well, you know, throughout history, and it's certainly relevant today, there are three things: Teach your children well. Not only teach them to be smart and earn money, but also instill good manners, because countries and communities with well-educated children who grow up productive and cooperative are of paramount importance.
The second is to have a civil society that functions well so that there is productivity. This is very important. And third—stay away from bad war or conflict. Don't have, um, destructive conflict . Internal conflict that renders the system inoperable. Don't get involved in an international war. Stay away from such things as much as you can.
So, here's Dalio's checklist in simple terms. Don't burden yourself with debt. Keep gold between 5 and 15%. Invest a little in inflation-linked bonds, where the real yield is now around 3%. And distribute the rest, because he says that what you don't know is much more than what you do know. If this was helpful, a like would help.
And tell me in the comments how much of your savings is in gold now? Zero, five, 15? I would like to see this number.
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