저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 매달 소량의 금 매수를 권하지만 금 가격 상승은 확신하지 못한다고 말한다. 자산 버블이 언젠가 꺼질 것이며, 그때 반도체·AI 관련주가 가장 크게 하락하고 일부는 파산할 것이라고 주장한다. 정부의 금 사유화 금지 가능성, 실질 임금·생활비 악화 등을 경고하며 개인이 스스로 중앙은행 역할을 하듯 자산을 분산할 것을 강조한다. 명시적인 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
In my writings and interviews, I have always advised people to buy a little gold every month, and I continue to do so. But I'm not sure that gold will increase in price. You can no longer trust central banks. This is not a conspiracy theory. This is Marc Faber, a man who has been advising on markets for over 50 years, saying it bluntly.
And his warning about what governments have done with wealth throughout history—in Russia, Shanghai, Eastern Europe—is something every owner of gold and silver needs to hear. This causes huge inflation. And in such conditions, gold is a means of preserving value. And for the last 40 years, I have been advocating that central banks can no longer be trusted.
You should be your own central bank and keep some gold. This is documented in my books, articles, and interviews. I have always advised people to buy a little gold every month. And I continue to do so, but I'm not sure that gold will increase in price. But it may fall less than other assets. That's right.
If I had to make a list of what would fall the most when the bubble bursts, I would put semiconductor stocks and stocks related to artificial intelligence on it. Many of these companies will go bankrupt. They will go bankrupt. And gold will remain, but as you know, there is always a risk that the government, especially under someone like Mr.
Trump, will say, "Well, gold is good, but private ownership of it is unpatriotic." The government can own gold, but private individuals are prohibited from doing so. Do you understand? If the government could lock down the population during COVID, and people agreed to it, agreed to sit in isolation and be forcibly vaccinated, then they probably would n't do anything if the authorities said, "Excuse me , we have to seize your gold." We pay for it.
We'll give you some dollars, which we'll print." They can issue freshly printed dollar bills with Mr. Trump's signature. Because by then, America will be called "Trump country." Prices, I mean oil prices, have increased much less than, say, the price of gold. So in gold equivalent, a barrel of oil is relatively cheap.
It may be expensive, but gold is more expensive. If we evaluate these ratios, then I would say that labor is very cheap relative to everything else, and we can measure that the labor share of the US economy is now at its lowest level in history. Never been lower . Food prices —wheat, corn, soybeans—are at their lowest in history.
This is not the lowest level in history, but compared to everything else, it is very low right now . So, what you're saying is correct, but you have to understand, as an investor , let's say I'm not, but let's say I'm a billionaire and I have a billion to invest. OK. With a billion, you can afford to hire a team of agricultural experts to buy a farm.
But not everyone wants the hassle associated with owning farmland. Yes, that's a very good question. What is, uh, the size of the economy and how do you measure whether the economy has actually grown or contracted? Because in theory we could have a stagnant or shrinking economy. But you and I print enough money, pour it into the system , and the debt level rises.
And asset prices are going up, whether it's housing, stocks, or anything else. And then people can feel like they've made progress, even though in reality, as you just hinted, in real terms, adjusted for inflation, their current situation is worse than it was 20 years ago. It is possible. They think they are richer.
And nominally they are indeed richer. They had 1 million, their assets grew to, say, 10 million. But the purchasing power of these 10 million is lower than the 1 million they had 20 years ago. It is possible. And some members of society who do not have or did not have any assets, their well-being has not increased at all because they do not have assets.
And their salaries have not increased in real terms. In other words, in nominal terms they have a higher minimum hourly wage than they did 20 years ago. But the cost of living, i.e. rent, insurance premiums, taxes, municipal fees, etc., have increased more than salaries. So, taking into account inflation, they barely make ends meet .
Well, one, uh, event that is certain to happen, but we don't know the sequence, is that after this period of monetary inflation that we've had over the last 40 years, just remember, in 1982 the Dow Jones low was around 800, at 780. And it's been going up ever since. Uh, this bull market in assets is coming to an end.
There is no doubt about that . Uh, at what point will this happen? We don't know for sure. It could be tomorrow. Or maybe in 5 or even 10 years. But it will happen one way or another. And then asset owners have to ask themselves Mark is known as a bear, he's been a pessimist his whole life, etc., so don't trust him.
But just in case, what if he's right for once in his life? Then maybe we should think about how to lose the least? Because we are all asset owners. We hold stocks, real estate, cash, bonds, collectibles, wines, and more. And precious metals. So how can we lose the least? And then, uh uh - The idea would be, of course, to invest in companies that hold silver.
This is certainly one of the options. But people will also have to think about the fact that in many cases throughout history, the government has simply taken everything. All. Remember the rich people who lived in 19th century Russia. The 1918 revolution happened , and they lost everything. And Eastern Europeans went through World War II.
Then the communist regimes after 1945, when the Germans lost the war, they lost everything. Including Germans on the eastern side of Germany. And in Shanghai in 1949, when the communists came, Shanghai was probably the richest and most important city in Asia economically, outside of Tokyo, before World War II.
But after the communists came to power, the wealth simply disappeared. They wanted to contain interest rates to some extent. Uh , and they wanted to contain the inflation rate. So we have to ask ourselves: are these numbers plausible or not? And I know several, not just one, economists who calculate an inflation rate significantly higher than what the government publishes.
Their inflation rate, calculated using old methods of calculating the increase in the cost of living, is much higher. It is , they say, more than 8-11%. I argue that your family has a different inflation rate than mine because you may have young children. They go to kindergarten in New York or study at American universities.
And you may have a sister, brother, wife, or child who has serious health problems. And healthcare is extremely expensive in the United States and other countries. Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that it's very difficult to measure the increase in the cost of living, but I would say that you can look at yourself: how much are you spending and how much have prices increased?
And I admit that I'm amazed when I go to a supermarket, a department store, or a store like Home Depot or Lowe's and buy household goods, you know, a refrigerator, a TV, a washing machine, or something else. I'm amazed at how much prices have dropped. You know, when I was a kid, a washing machine was almost out of reach for ordinary families.
In the 1950s, a refrigerator was a luxury in Switzerland. So a man who has dedicated his entire career to studying how empires and economies collapse has just told you straight up: become your own central bank. This is not intimidation. This is evidenced by fifty years of experience. If this has made you think about how you protect your assets, click " subscribe".
We analyze similar interviews with leading economists and analysts every week. Write in the comments: after hearing this, are you holding on to what you have, or are you thinking about increasing your savings? And if anyone you know needs to hear this before the next market move, send them this video. See you in the next issue.
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