저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
달러·미국 국채 신뢰 약화로 중앙은행 금 매입이 늘고 있으며 금이 기술주 대체 안전자산이라고 주장. 미국 부채가 지속 불가능해 금리 상승과 경제 붕괴가 올 것이라 전망. 주식시장도 대형 기술주 중심으로 약세 신호를 보인다고 진단. 제목·설명란에 출연자 정보가 없어 화자 소속은 자막의 'Peter Schiff' 언급 및 일반 정보 기준으로 표기.
다듬은 글
At the same time, the entire economy collapses because it is built on a foundation of debt that cannot be serviced. I think that better and more stable growth will be in gold. So this is what I would buy, you know, with my own money if I were getting out of tech stocks . It seems that gold is a much better safe haven.
Something doesn't look right here . Gold is moving in a way that is becoming difficult to ignore. And Peter Schiff believes there is a much bigger story behind this. He is closely monitoring developments in global markets, especially the growing demand for gold as confidence in the dollar and US debt begins to shift.
And for those who own gold, silver, or are simply trying to protect their wealth, what he has to say next is worth hearing. Because the main question is: why are central banks buying so much gold now? Listen carefully to Peter Schiff's opinion. Look what happened to the price of gold. It didn't jump from 2,000 to over 5,000 an ounce in about a year for no reason.
And it was n't American speculators or investors who bought it. These were foreign central banks. Why do they do this? They refused the dollar. They are already doing it. Look at what is happening with the Bank of Japan now. But China has been doing this for a long time. Russia started doing this after the sanctions, but you know, countries are abandoning the US dollar, despite the fact that they could be getting 5% returns on Treasury bonds.
They would rather own gold and receive no income than Treasury bonds with a 5% return. This says a lot about how concerned they are now about the US debt situation. So for me, this is the most logical explanation. It's just long overdue. This should have happened a long time ago . Lenders should have put the puzzle together years ago, but they didn't .
But, you know, now they're finally concerned about it. But I think he will. I think that better and more stable growth will be in gold. So this is what I would buy, you know, with my own money if I were getting out of tech stocks . Gold is a much better safe haven because it truly provides a hedge against Treasury bonds.
Because if Treasury bonds collapse , where will you go? You know, gold is the last safe haven left in such conditions. Debt is finally catching up with us. You know, we knew this was inevitable. In fact, whenever the chairman of the Federal Reserve was asked about our debt, he replied, "The debt is not unsustainable, but the path to it is." And that's exactly what our leaders said.
They said we can handle it now, but if we continue in this direction, we won't be able to. I've always argued: if you admit that we're on an unsustainable path, how do you know when you reach the unsustainable point ? Because I think we're already there. And I think the markets are finally starting to understand this.
So lenders will demand significantly higher interest rates for loans to the US government or any borrower in US currency precisely because of what Donald Trump said the other day. Last Friday, I think . Trump said that one of the benefits of inflation is that it reduces our debt very quickly. The real bad news is not where the rates are now, but where they are headed.
Because they will become much taller. As we speak, rates are already at their highest level since 2002. Five-year Treasury bonds are 5.09. Ten-year rates are 5.33, and thirty-year rates are 5.69. These are the highest returns today, but they won't be the same tomorrow, or maybe even later today. But we will continue to grow.
People forget that we had a "bull" bond market for 40 years, which meant falling yields. The yield on 10- year Treasury bonds fell from 16% in 1981 to less than 1% in 2021. During the same period, the rate on a 30- year fixed-rate mortgage fell from 18% to 2 and 5/8. Now this process has reversed. Mortgages are now above 7.5% and Treasury bonds are at 5.33%, but we are heading back to those levels, and possibly higher.
Somewhere between now and then, we're going to have a complete economic collapse because we have too much debt to afford to pay that kind of interest. I said in my podcast that we are in the fourth stage of debt. The first period was when we had low debt and low interest rates, and it was great. We didn't borrow a lot of money, the government didn't run a deficit, people saved a lot , so we had low interest rates, and we didn't have a lot of debt.
Then, in the 1970s and 1980s, the debt began to grow rapidly. As a result, debt remained low in absolute terms, just not as low as before; but the bond market was concerned about the accumulation of debt, so interest rates rose sharply. So we had low debt levels and high interest rates. The high interest rates were acceptable because the debt to which they were applied was not that large.
The next phase actually began with the 2008 financial crisis . The debt grew even more, but then interest rates fell. So back then we had very high debt , but very low interest rates. It was this combination that made the enormous debt seem manageable and affordable. And that's what created such complacency over the last few decades about building up debt, because everyone said, "Well, we can afford it.
This is not such a big problem . Look how low the interest rates are.” Well, now we are entering the fourth phase: high debt and high interest rates. Of course, we will have the highest debt in history, and perhaps even the highest interest rates we have ever had at the same time. And so this entire economy must collapse, because it is built on a foundation of debt that cannot be serviced.
I just talked about this on my last podcast, but people underestimate how important housing was to the consumer economy . Because what gave consumers significant purchasing power was not just home equity from rising real estate prices, but also the regular cash-out refinancing that Americans had been doing for 40 years: every few years you could refinance your mortgage, get cash to spend, and at the same time reduce your monthly payment.
It was like a bottomless well of gifts. This was a lifeline for the consumer that has now been cut off. Because there is no more refinancing. Mortgage rates will only continue to rise and rise. And the only thing that can change is the price of the house. Because what made expensive homes affordable was cheap mortgages.
Yes. I mean, this is crazy. I calculated these numbers myself last week. When the S &P was about 1% below its record, about 430 stocks were on average 21.5 % below their highs. That's 430, or 86% of them. But then a full 60% of these titles fell more than 20% on their own. So, you have 60% of the S &P index in an official " bear" market.
Bear market. So Madness. That's not even our entire US stock market. These are just our mega- tech stocks. Whether it's Nvidia, or Meta, or Alphabet, or Microsoft, or these multi-trillion dollar companies that are collectively. And at the speed at which things are going, the situation will become even more distorted.
If you've made it this far, thank you for watching. There's a lot going on in the gold and silver market right now . And it 's worth paying attention to such conversations, especially if you're trying to protect your wealth in uncertain times . If you found this video useful, please share it with someone who follows gold, silver, or the economy.
And if you want more conversations like this, subscribe to Economic Diary and click the bell so you don't miss the next episode. Thanks for being here, and I'll see you in the next video. A dream is a mission. Dream is Dream is
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