저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Schiff은 고인플레이션(2026년 9개월간 CPI 4%, 2027년 7% 이상 가능) 속에서 연준의 금리 인상은 실질금리를 여전히 마이너스로 만들어 금에 우호적이라고 주장한다. 금리 상승은 금에 역풍이 아니라 순풍이며, 국가부채 이자비용(연 1.4조달러, 곧 2조달러) 부담으로 연준이 결국 양적완화에 나설 것이라 본다. 금 4000달러 선을 지지선으로 보고 재상승을 예상하며, 은은 금 대비 여전히 저평가라고 말한다. 실물 금·은 보유를 권하고 금광주도 저평가라고 본다. 출연자는 본인이 금을 판매·운용하므로 이해관계가 있다.
다듬은 글
Gold is poised for another significant rally. In my opinion, there is a very high chance that the price will be above 7,000 in 2027. Even if we go down, I wouldn't worry about your physical precious metals. Just hold on to your gold and silver. Don't worry if the price drops.
Okay, gold is down and everyone is blaming the Fed. But Peter Schiff says the opposite is true. He argues that these rate hikes could actually push gold higher, and then tells us what he thinks is in store for the bond market. This may surprise you. Stay with me. At the end, it also transitions to silver.
We were surprised by the higher-than-expected inflation data, which you would intuitively think is actually a "bullish" signal for gold. But this forced the Fed to change market expectations from lowering rates to raising them. And in fact, the Fed made its first quarter-percentage-point hike at a recent meeting.
I think it was the fears of a tighter Fed policy and higher rates that caused gold to lose the gains from that rebound. But I think we are retesting and building solid support around the 4,000 level, which is where gold initially fell after hitting a new all-time high around 5,600. The gold market has dipped back a little below 4,000.
I think it traded below 4,000 for maybe a day, maybe two max, before recovering. And this time it didn't even drop below 4,000. It was below 4,100, but still held on to the 4,000-point mark. So I think gold is getting ready for another big jump up once the markets realize that these rate hikes don't mean anything, that they won't be a drag on gold, because these hikes are much smaller than the rate of inflation, the unexpected inflation.
In fact, inflation has already risen significantly more than the Fed is even considering raising rates, so real rates are actually much lower than the market expected, so the price of gold should be significantly higher. I think it's the misconception of what rising bond yields mean that's currently a drag on gold, but that misconception will eventually go away.
If you look at the CPI, and as you pointed out, it's an imperfect indicator because it underestimates what's actually happening. But so far in 2026, in the first nine months, the CPI has increased by 4%. It grew by 2.9% for the entire year of 2024, which was Biden's last year. In 2023 it was 3.4%, Biden's penultimate year.
So we've already exceeded both of those years, with three more months to go. When we get the data for the next three months, I think we'll see a figure of around 5% for the 2026 CPI. By that measure, the federal funds rate will still end the year in negative territory. This is not what you would call a restrictive monetary policy. This is a very soft policy.
In fact, the highest inflation in any calendar year under Biden was 7% in 2021. I think there's a very good chance that 2027 will be higher than 7%, but I doubt the federal funds rate will be much higher than 5%. So negative yields will continue to rise, creating even more incentive to avoid losses by buying gold.
So, instead of being a drag on gold, I think rising bond yields will be a tailwind because they won't rise enough to offset the losses from inflation. And in fact, as rates rise and more of the U.S. national debt matures and needs to be refinanced, you get this upward pressure on the cost of debt service.
The latest government figures showed that 1.4 trillion dollars is now the annual amount for interest on the national debt. But this number is getting bigger every month. Sometime next year it will reach 2 trillion, which means it will become bigger than Social Security spending. Social Security is now 1.7 trillion. Of course, this figure will also increase next year. But interest on the national debt is now the second-largest government expenditure item, and the fastest growing.
So at some point, the Fed will have to not only stop raising rates, but actually ramp up its quantitative easing program, because there won't be enough private buyers for negative-yielding Treasuries.
Anything below 60 dollars, frankly, I consider a bottom right now. I think 50 is probably the new 20 for silver. And we'll go much higher. So it was a bigger correction than the one we had in gold, but silver still seems cheap to me relative to gold, even though it's not as cheap as it used to be.
At one time there was a ratio of 100 to 1. It was over 100 to 1 when gold was at its peak and silver was still below 30. It was around 20, even just above 20. So there are different types of investments. I view physical gold and silver as money, simply as a store of value. This is not an investment as such; it is simply a way to preserve your purchasing power.
I think that gold and silver mining companies, both as an investor and as an investor in the stock market, are undervalued because, in my opinion, investors simply don't understand how much higher the price of gold and silver will be in the future, and how much money these companies will make not only from their mining operations, but also from how much more valuable their inventories will become at much higher metal prices.
I wouldn't worry about my physical precious metals even if the price temporarily dropped. I don't believe the price will stay low, and maybe it won't fall at all. Perhaps this is the lowest point we are heading to. You don't know. And it depends on how preventive the government will be: when they acknowledge the problem and pull out the "heavy artillery," right? A large-scale quantitative easing program. Will they wait until everything collapses, or will they realize at the beginning of the collapse what is coming and try to act in advance? You don't know.
So my opinion is always to just hold onto your gold and silver. Don't worry if the price drops, because you don't sell when the price drops. You hold it because we know that over time, not only will the price increase significantly, but it may become something we need as money. This may be the only thing that actually buys anything. When we have to buy goods or services from other people, gold or silver may be what they want to receive payment in. They may not want dollars.
We don't know what a dollar will be worth, or whether people will be willing to exchange valuable goods and services for what may turn out to be worthless pieces of paper. Gold and silver will always have value, so people will be willing to exchange value for value. They may simply not be willing to exchange value for nothing.
That is one of the reasons I'm developing my T-gold platform: to be proactive, so that people who own gold and store it with us have a mechanism that makes it easier to use gold as a medium of exchange. You will be able to actually trade gold 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
This is what Peter Schiff sees: rate hikes that don't affect anything, a Fed that doesn't fight back, and a debt crisis that he believes is coming. This is his personal opinion, and he sells gold and manages funds, so please decide for yourself. This is not financial advice. Is the Fed really fighting inflation? Write in the comments, subscribe, and click the bell to learn more. Thank you for watching.
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