저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
Warsh 연준의 매파 발언은 실질 변화 없는 쇼이며 M2 성장과 재정적자로 인플레가 지속된다고 주장. 연준 금리인상 확률이 37%→57%로 상승해 금·은·달러 흐름이 바뀌었다. 금광주 신고가(뉴몬트)는 금 상승의 선행신호로 보며 금·은 신고가 가능성을 언급. 비트코인 하락 및 스트래티지 주주가치 훼손을 비판, 달러·엔 약세와 10년물 금리 4.72% 정체를 근거로 다음 주 전망이 밝지 않다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Oh my God, he's serious this time . He is really going to start fighting inflation. So, the forecasts for next week are disappointing, especially for the markets, in particular precious metals — gold and silver. Owners of gold and silver, be careful . Next week could be very important. Peter Schiff warns about three things: rising debt , stubborn inflation, and the Federal Reserve.
And together they can have a significant impact on gold and silver. So before you take the next step, listen to what Schiff has to say. I want to start today's podcast with a speech that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gave today . This performance, of course, was highly anticipated. I don't understand why anyone cares about what this guy says, because it's obvious what he's going to say, and it's just as obvious that despite his words, he won't do it.
So what he says doesn't matter at all. All that matters is what he does, and he doesn't do any of the things he talks about. And, of course, he makes tough statements about inflation. He is serious. He really is going to lower the inflation rate to 2%, and that's how his speech was received today . Everyone said she was very " hawkish." Well, maybe again .
I mean, what did you expect? He can't help but speak in a " hawkish" tone. This , this is his entire script. That's what he does. This is part of the Kevin Warsh show. You know, besides, Trump doesn't criticize Warsh for his "hawkish" rhetoric the way he criticized Powell. Again, it's all part of the show.
This is an attempt to make everyone believe that the Fed is supposedly independent, and that it can actually start raising rates, shrinking its balance sheet, and fighting inflation. But they are trying to create a situation where, when he does n't do it, it will look like he is acting not out of political motives but out of economic justification.
So, it does n't really matter what he says, but the markets, especially precious metals—gold and silver—were pretty hurt today, and the dollar was strengthened by the thought, "Oh my God, he's serious this time." He is really going to start fighting inflation .” In fact, the probability of a rate hike in September, which was about 37% before his speech, rose to about 57% after he finished speaking.
Although nothing he said changed anything, as Warsh had been tough on fighting inflation even before his nomination , and certainly during his confirmation hearings . It all came down to how tough he would be on inflation. So, what did he say today that was different from what he said before? But the fact is that despite all these loud statements, he had many opportunities to raise the stakes, but he did not do so .
The balance continues to grow. The M2 indicator continues to grow. It has been growing at about 6% annually since he took office. It creates inflation. Despite his talk of putting out the fire, he continues to pour gasoline on it . So, again , it doesn't matter what this guy says. This means that we are in for an even bigger reversal, with the average maturity of the government debt shrinking even further, leaving the US government even more vulnerable if the Fed does indeed raise rates, which markets are now estimating to be more likely.
And again, I think it's part of the show to make the markets think that the Fed can raise rates in an attempt to benefit from tight monetary policy without actually having one . In fact, by being loose, you trick the markets into thinking you're on the verge of tightening. And this is what caused the price of gold and silver to fall and the dollar to rise.
I'll talk about the market reaction a little later in the podcast. Now I want to focus on what Varsh...So, I've already mentioned what wasn't said. Not a word about the US government's reckless fiscal policies and unmanageable debt. And since Varsh is ignoring the main problem, I know he won't do anything about inflation, because you can't do anything until you acknowledge what's really happening.
In fact, while Varsh took responsibility for inflation, he mentioned in his speech that for the past 65 months, inflation has been well above their 2% target. And he accepted responsibility on behalf of the Fed. Of course, he was not at the Fed for most of those 65 months, but he accepted responsibility on behalf of everyone else in the institution.
But he said it was solely the Fed's fault. He said it was just the Fed. Essentially, we take it upon ourselves. It's our fault, and we have to do something about it . But this is not true. It takes two to tango when it comes to inflationary dance. And the Fed's dance partner is the US government. It's Congress, it's the president , because it's Congress that authorizes and spends money it does n't have, which leads to the inflationary policies that the Fed pursues to make this spending possible and avoid the financial or debt crisis that would occur if the Fed didn't cover these deficits.
So, when you let your accomplice go and declare that you will not commit the crime again, it will still happen. Because it is impossible for the Fed to really fight inflation, given what the government is doing now. So, one of the first things that Warsh talked about when he started his talk was the forecasting guidelines and how they have served their purpose.
And I don't think they ever had a real purpose. But he said they were created after the 2008 financial crisis . And that they were a little late. And that we don't need them anymore. But it so happened that interest rates were at zero, and they were thinking about how to ease policy? Our rates are zero.
We are already doing quantitative easing. How can we reduce them? We are already at the bottom. And the way they did it is with these predictive benchmarks. And the forecast guidelines were: “Hey, we’re at zero and we’ll stay there for a long time. And we will continue to print money." Is n't that right?
Because they couldn't do anything, having reached level zero. So they wanted to keep talking about how long they would stay there to try to soften the policy, because they didn't want to go into the red, right? Like some central banks that have moved to negative nominal rates. The Fed didn't do that.
Although, it seems, Donald Trump once demanded this. He was jealous. He said, " Hey, other countries have negative interest rates." Why can't we?" Truth? He thought it was a good idea and the Fed should try it. But, you know, Warsh says, "Listen, we don't need forecasting guidelines anymore ." And he said markets shouldn't look back at the Fed.
Investors should not make their next trades based on what they think the Fed will do. They should look objectively at the data, at the economy, and make investments based on that, not based on what they think the Fed will do. But that won't happen because what the Fed does is very important. Because if you were making decisions based only on the real economy, you would think, "Okay, rates are going to go up significantly because we're going to have inflation because of the real numbers ." But the markets are trying to understand something else: "Well, the Fed won't do what it should." You see, if I knew the Fed was going to do the right thing based on the data, then I could follow the data.
But if you think the Fed will do the wrong thing, then what difference does it make what the data says? If you know that the Fed will act politically, that it will try to keep the bubble from bursting, that it will artificially support a fake economy to help politicians avoid difficult decisions, then how can you ignore what you think the Fed will do?
Because the Fed will act based on political motives. And not just based on data. In fact, the data may not matter at all to the Fed . Although they like to say they depend on data, perhaps the data they depend on is political polls or the popularity of the current administration. Let's move on to the markets.
Although I expect the markets to largely play back today's events. The stock market is down across the board today, but not by much . The Dow fell only 10 points and was actually up about 0.4% for the week. The S&P fell a quarter of a percent today, but also showed growth over the week. The Nasdaq fell about half a percent today, but is up 1.4% for the week.
So, funds are still flowing into the technology sector . This was probably helped by Nvidia's report, which exceeded forecasts . Small-cap stocks actually fell. They fell both in a week and in a day. Down 1.4% today. Decreased by 1.2% per week. So, the Russell 2000 index was in the black until today, and then lost all its gains and even more.
But the main events unfolded in the precious metals market . Gold fell 3.2% today, to over $140 an ounce. And it fell by 4.75% in a week. We closed at a price of around 4454.40 for gold. Silver has been hit even harder, especially when looking at the intraday reversal in the silver price. But silver fell 4.4% on the day.
Silver closed at 66 and a quarter. However, during the day, silver almost reached $71 today. So, this was a new high for this move since we had a big correction. In fact, gold almost reached 4700, it went up to 4680. So it also had a big reversal, but not as big as the reversal in silver. Gold and silver stocks also, as expected, slumped sharply.
GDX fell 3.9% on the day and 4.4% on the week. GDXJ fell 4.4% on the day and about the same amount on the week. So, almost all the losses occurred today. During the week, however , it is interesting that Newmont Mining, the world's largest gold mining company and the only gold mining company in the S&P 500, reached a new all-time high today.
Historical high. While gold itself would have to rise another 20% to return to the record high it set, it seems, in January or February of this year, Newmont has already reached a new high. And this is a very strong leading indicator that investors are waking up to the reality of rising gold prices, starting to realize that gold is not going to fall, and starting to revise their earnings forecasts, embedding these higher forecasts into the current value and driving up the share price.
So the fact that you see some gold mining companies really leading the way and setting new highs ahead of the metal itself, I take that as a positive signal that we will set new highs for both gold and silver. And by the time we do that, of course, mining stocks , I think, will be significantly higher than they are now.
Now, Bitcoin has fallen by about one and a half percent. Although the week is not over yet, Bitcoin continues to trade higher over the weekend. But when compared to where it was a week ago, from Friday to Friday , Bitcoin fell by one and a half percent. Today it fell by 3 %. Right now, as I write this, Bitcoin is trading around 77,400.
It was up above 81,500 overnight. So, also a big reversal in Bitcoin itself. Strategy fell 7.3% today. There was a huge increase yesterday. It's not entirely clear where this came from. Apparently, a lot of closing short positions. It was a big week again, or rather last week, when a lot of Strategy shares were sold.
Bitcoin Strategy's profitability has now collapsed. The indicator is now negative for the year. So, Bitcoin Strategy destroyed value for common shareholders over the course of a year. Common shareholders now own fewer bitcoins per share than they did at the beginning of the year. So this is a huge destruction of shareholder value that no one is acknowledging.
But in many ways, this is an attempt to bring the stretch price back to 100. It is now closer to 100, but has not yet reached that level. It closed at 97.33, down 0.7% on the day but up 1% on the week. But the yield is 12.3%. So he still needs to bring in more common shareholders to try to get the stretch to 100, and he'll have to keep diluting their shares to keep the price at 100.
So it's a losing game. I don't know where this rally in strategy came from, other than from covering short positions. I still maintain that there is a death spiral, even if it lasts a little longer thanks to this Bitcoin rally. Remember , Bitcoin rose from around 60,000 to over 80,000 largely due to “ Operation Twist” announced by the Treasury Department.
Bitcoin seems to have followed gold, but I think it won't last long. I think you will see a lot of Bitcoin selling, which is bad news for the strategy and the stretch. Oil prices have actually softened a bit over the week. We closed at around 83.5 after 87 last week, but I think the main story is in the bond market and the dollar.
The dollar index jumped to 99.66. Almost all of today's gains were the result of Varsh's tough rhetoric, but look at the dollar-yen pair. The yen has fallen, now it is back above 160. So the yen could come under heavy pressure on Sunday evening, which means new intervention, new Treasury bond sales, and therefore more bonds that the US government will have to buy, and the 10- year bond yield has increased in the week.
It seems we're stuck at 4.72. This was slightly higher than the figure we stopped at last week. The 30-year bond actually dipped a bit, closing at 5.21, but the yield was lower throughout the day, then turned around and the bond closed at the lows of the day. So, the outlook for next week does not look promising.
So now you know what Peter Schiff is after. Gold, silver, inflation, and the debt problem are not going away. If you found this update useful, please like, subscribe, and turn on notifications. See you in the next update .
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