저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 테슬라가 배터리·자체칩·AI칩·실사용 주행데이터·OTA 업데이트 등 진입장벽에서 경쟁사를 크게 앞서 있다고 주장한다. 목표가 측면에서 그녀는 5년 기준 테슬라 기본 시나리오 3,000달러(당시 약 800달러 대비)를 제시하며, 강세 시나리오로 4,000달러까지 언급했다. 이 확신이 커진 이유는 테슬라가 전기차를 경쟁사보다 훨씬 낮은 비용으로 대량 생산하는 능력을 보여주고 있기 때문이라고 설명한다. 배터리 측면에서는 테슬라가 원통형 배터리를 써서 원가를 낮췄고, 타사들은 파우치형 기술을 쓰기 때문에 원가 하락에 3~4년 뒤처진다고 본다. 자율주행·AI 측면에서는 테슬라 칩 사양이 타사보다 약 4년 앞서 있고, 누적 주행데이터는 140억 마일로 웨이모(2천만 마일)를 압도한다고 주장한다. 플랫폼 측면에서 테슬라는 전기차, 로봇, 에너지저장, AI 소프트웨어, 유리 기술까지 아우르는 융합 기업이라 가치평가가 높다고 본다. 경쟁 측면에서는 대기업들이 테슬라를 따라잡지 못하고 실패하고 있다고 평가하며, 테슬라가 5년 내 전체 차량 시장의 25%를 차지하고 전기차가 전체 판매의 절반 가까이 될 것이라고 전망한다. 리스크로는 영상에서 명확히 다뤄진 내용이 적으며, 테슬라의 논란이 팬 이탈을 낳고 있다는 언급만 있다. 이 영상은 2022년 9월 발언이므로 목표가 4,000달러와 3,000달러는 5년 장기 전망이며, 1~3개월 단기 가격 예측은 포함되어 있지 않다.
다듬은 글
have you ever wondered what Tesla's plans are for next year Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a lot of plans for the company both in the short and long term Tesla is known for their never-ending innovative ideas and projects this even though Tesla is undoubtedly losing quite a number of fans due to its leader being controversial a lot more others believe in the company and its future potential and Tesla being Tesla they don't disappoint with all the projects and products lined up their phones are ringing off the hook for reservations today you will find out Tesla's plans for 2023 according to Kathy Wood Kathy Woods bullishness on Tesla is nothing new wood who manages Arc invest funds such as ARCA Innovation ETF has Tesla among her top Holdings terms such as disruptive innovator and convergence always seem to pop up when discussing the investing rationale behind Kathy Woods hugely successful Arc invest Asset Management fund and these terms are arguably related to test in fact Kathy Wood LED Arc invest has a lot of faith in Elon musk's Tesla Venture so much so that this stock represents a whole 10 percent of the fund's capitalization which is not much of a surprise Tesla takes a lot of the boxes when it comes to Kathy Woods investment philosophy indeed it was Kathy's intervention by way of an open letter to Elon Musk back in 2018 that prevented Musk from reacquiring Tesla stock allocation and taking the company private again the letter turned out to be a phenomenon of sorts in it Kathy Wood outlined a five-year bull thesis for Tesla stock pitching its price in 2023 as high as four thousand dollars musk at the time was happy to pay just 420 for every share in his nascent stock repurchase scheme if you look at the revenue growth the last five years it's compounded at roughly 48 percent per year and that was as you recall when Tesla was experiencing quite a bit of controversy our foreca depends if you take our bull or our bear case and there's a few reasons says Kathy Wood according to Wood there are four barriers to entry that seem to have gotten higher in Tesla's favor the first is Battery Technology wood said that Tesla is the only car manufacturer except for a few in China that decided to ride down the cost curve of the consumer electronics Industry this is due to the change in batteries that are used in laptops and or cell phones wood noted that when Tesla decided to do that auto manufacturers and autoanalysts laughed at the company since there were publicized battery blow-ups on airplanes which resulted in a ban on that kind of battery because of that though its cost is lower today the cost of its battery pack system is significantly lower than that of other auto manufacturers would said that if they want to compete with Tesla those other automakers are going to lose money in electric vehicles while their gas powered vehicles will fail the alternative will be less power or less range so that we're seeing a lot of permutations around that so battery still 3-4 year years ahead in terms of cost declines of other auto manufacturers who decided to use lithium-ion pouch technology as opposed to the cylindrical batteries that Tesla uses says wood the second barrier to entry according to Wood is Tesla's own chip which is the most critical from a valuation and growth point of view Tesla is the only auto manufacturer to have designed its own chip with said the others didn't follow they didn't have their own chip they didn't have the vision wood said that Tesla is taking a leaf from Apple's book she said if you remember in the day Apple was the upstart Nokia Motorola and Ericsson were the winners in the cell phone space she explained that Tesla was the upstart where its founder Steve Jobs thought that it was not going to be just a phone but will become a computer in the pocket so to speak and he did just that I'll never forget the Delight I felt when I was able to access the internet on my phone I just thought this was revolutionary says wood she believes that Tesla like apple has started and is starting something revolutionary would say said that the reason why Tesla is so far ahead of its competitors is that those companies have just gotten started she said that what they have delivered so far are cars that don't even meet the range or other metrics of Tesla's Model S the other barrier to entry is the artificial intelligence chip which is all about autonomous and Tesla is the only one doing this wood said that when their analyst James Wang who worked at Nvidia and artificial intelligence company for eight years looked at the specs of Tesla's Chip he was in awe Wang said that Tesla is four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the specs out there on chip technology this is important in going autonomous with electric which is Tesla's goal going autonomous has everything to do with artificial intelligence projects and the winner will have the most data and the highest quality data Tesla has 14 billion miles of real world driving data today and the closest competitor waymo only has 20 million finally Tesla's advantage over other companies is that it is the only auto manufacturer still that delivers over-the-air software updates to modify performance how do you expect Tesla stock to perform in the coming months and years share your thoughts in the comment section below the next barrier to entry is that Tesla has billions upon billions of miles of real-world driving data accumulated according to Tesla's then AI director Andre carpathy they have more Corner cases to train their systems on than any other company wood said that it is not going to be possible for other rival companies to catch up because Tesla already has more than a million robots including her model 3 roaming around collecting data and sending it back every day another barrier to entry according to Kathy Wood is over-the-air software updates which apparently come as a surprise for her wood shared that she got her model 3 in 2018 and that she had never had to take it in for a problem Tesla apparently has diagnosed any problems I've had and corrected them before I see them or experienced them the only problem I've had is a male inner tire and of course software could not correct to that but that was it says wood those are the barriers to entry that gave Tesla the lead according to Wood their base case is three thousand dollars in five years from around eight hundred dollars today our confidence in that has grown because what we're seeing now is Tesla able to scale EV Manufacturing in a way that no one else except perhaps byd in China no one else is doing this yet and Tesla had to go through a huge learning curve to get there says wood would said that most other auto manufacturers are not going to be able to keep up with or reach Tesla's combination unless they want to lose money on their cars wood emphasized that that's very important from a performance point of view and a range point of view when asked about her thoughts on large corporations competing with Tesla in electric vehicle production wood has this to say they are failing miserably this is not like the manufacturing of traditional Autos it's a completely different game we used to say we thought Tesla would take 25 percent of the the electric vehicle Market in five years now we're saying We Believe Tesla will take 25 percent of the total vehicle Market in five years and we think electric will be nearly half of total vehicle sold some investing enthusiasts have been wondering what Arc invest analysts see in Tesla that warranted such optimism in the company's potential for one would famously declared the firm to be a value stock and it was obvious that there was no sarcasm or even braggadocio to this claim as the star investor was being quite serious moreover this analysis can be explained through the fund's concept of convergence Tesla isn't just a straight up EV play it's a company that melds or converges multiple technology sectors and platforms into one entity it's a robotics company it's an energy storage specialist it's an artificial intelligence software developer it even has its own Glass Technology Group and this plurality is what gives it its deep value and its exalted position in the market furthermore Tesla is a disrupter in the transportation base again this is straight out of Kathy Woods Playbook Arc seeks out innovators and those changing the landscape in their respective Fields Tesla might not be the only Eevee firm in town in fact there is a lot of competition from seemingly everywhere but it is the only one leading the pack and the one dictating the pace for its rivals in the race visit Tesla stock and watch our other videos for more of this content
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