저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 투자 성공 공식은 없지만 국가 경제성장률 예측 모델(레이 달리오 방식)을 활용하면 국가별 투자 방향을 잡는 데 도움이 된다는 주장이다. [핵심 주장] 주식시장·기업 이익 성장의 근본 동력은 국가 경제성장이므로, 향후 10년간 잘 성장할 국가를 알면 포트폴리오 위험을 낮추고 수익을 높일 수 있다고 본다. [근거 모델] 레이 달리오의 305페이지 보고서에 있는 모델을 소개한다. 생산성이 경제성장에 65%, 심화(부채·신용 사이클 관련 depthness)가 45% 영향을 준다고 하며, 과거 65년 데이터로 20개국을 검증해 향후 10년 성장과 84% 상관관계가 있다고 주장한다. [생산성 요인] 노동의 가치, 교육, 근로 강도, 투자, 문화(자급자족·삶의 향유 대 성취), 혁신과 상업주의, 관료주의, 부패, 법치 등. [심화 요인] 부채 수준과 서비스 부담, 자금 흐름, 통화정책 등. [국가별 순위 주장] 향후 10년 성장률 순위: 인도 최고, 이어 중국·싱가포르·멕시코·태국·아르헨티나·한국·브라질. 선진국 중에서는 미국이 가장 높고, 이후 영국, 독일, 프랑스, 스페인, 일본 순이며 이탈리아·그리스가 최하위. [세부 지표] 생산가능인구 증가율은 멕시코·인도·브라질이 높고 일본·독일·그리스·이탈리아는 낮음. 노동 가치(비용 대비 산출)는 인도·중국이 유리. 교육은 인도가 낮지만 비용 대비 저렴하다는 장점. 근로문화는 싱가포르가 우수, 이탈리아·그리스가 열위. 부채 여력은 인도·싱가포르·멕시코·미국이 양호, 일본·그리스·이탈리아·스페인이 취약. [리스크·조건] 인도 투자는 성장률만으로 되지 않으며 밸류에이션과 실제 투자 방법을 따로 봐야 한다고 강조. 경제 사이클상 신용 수축과 경기침체가 언젠가 올 것이라고 경고. [기타] 달리오 보고서 원문 정독을 권하며 구독·댓글 참여를 요청. [출연자 전망] 방송 자체의 특정 자산 가격 전망은 명시적으로 없음. 국가별 장기 성장 순위가 핵심 메시지.
다듬은 글
there is no formula for investment success I wish it would be there but there is a formula for economic success and economic growth a country's economic growth is the driver of everything else is the driver of the stock market is the driver for earnings growth in revenues so if we can know which countries will do best in their economies we can position our portfolios to take advantage of those Trends lower our risks increase our Returns what I have found is a Formula that explains with 84% of correlation what will happen in the economy of a certain country in the next 10 years now I haven't invented it I just have found it on Ray deo's economic principle web page in his 305 page report that he shares freely with the rest of the world with the hope that politicians monetary politicians take it and stop making decisions based on ideology and start using analytics what he and his, 1500 researchers did good luck with that changing the politician's mind I don't think he will manage but what we can take from it is investment strategic data and that's very very important and when it's for free it's amazing so thank you Ray Deo let's dig into what he has found what are the most important factors affecting economies and what will be the economies that will be the most successful in the next 10 years so according to Ray Deo and logically the main driver for an economy is productivity and then that productivity economic output can be pushed higher with in- depthness you have one long-term cycle that takes 75 years to develop and you have a lots of small credit Cycles every five seven 10 years we are now also in a credit cycle so expect it to contract somewhere in the future nobody thinks about it except Ray Dao so think about it there will be a recession at a point in time when I don't know but there will be so what did Ray Deo do he tested the factors impacting economic growth based on productivity and based on in depthness and here found that productivity affects economic growth with 65% and in depthness with 45% the factors that affect productivity are the following the value of the labor education labor productivity working hard Investments then the culture self-sufficiency savoring life versus achieving Innovation and commercialism bureaucracy corruption rule of law those are the most important fact s in increasing productivity as for in depthness the most important factors are depth and depth service levels depth flows and monetary policies and then what R Deo did attached weight to each factor looked at the correlations it came out with a model to estimate future 10-year growth rates so this data is available for free and that's the crazy part so we can really get the free lunch thanks to Ray Deo if you see Ray Dao of he has a charity please pay some money into that charity for him he doesn't need your money but it's just a sign of thank you I will certainly look it up and perhaps share it here online if there is something like that back to the correlation here is what his his model does he analyzed how those factors impact economic growth on 20 countries and checked it 65 years in the past and look at how that factors impact future 10-year economic growth correlation 84% so if you want a good correlation a good investment Trend then you have to follow this and to make things even easier for us Ray Deo took all the world data put them into his model and showed us which countries will do the best so we don't even have to work hard we have all the data already presented and laid out thank you Ray again here are the the data India will grow the fastest China Singapore Mexico Thailand Argentina Korea Brazil then the first developed country on the list is United States which will still show the fastest growth of all the developed countries followed by the UK if we go down to Europe Germany France Spain Japan the worst and Italy and Greece even worse so if you follow this chart you will do well in the next 10 years with your portfolio so just for curiosity let's look into individual factors and how they affect what's going on the growth in the working age population per country highest in Mexico India Brazil more working age population More Money More productivity worse in Russia Japan Germany Greece Italy and so us still the best of the developed countries what you pay versus what you get the value of working hours India the highest China still the highest culture the best one hardworking is in Singapore the worst culture to work oh Italy Greece H laa and the most expensive workers in relation to Output are France Germany Italy and so on education level the worst education is in India but still when compared to what what you get from an educated worker is extremely cheap cheap and that's an advantage India has China still has it Thailand Russia and so on and so on the most expensive workers is France Italy huh Germany Europe and so on why did I resign when I was paid so well for doing nothing H interesting nevertheless let's go on in depthness countries that are lowly indepted in relation to their potential India can really inv invest in their infrastructure Singapore Mexico because still can take a lot of depth for the future us is still there still strong so very good worst country is Japan Greece Italy la la la always the same Spain and so sum it up back to the figure we already saw the strongest India here we have the correct numbers China Singapore us the strongest of the developed countries and then down to Europe with the worst expected real growth rates in the future so this data is essential when positioning your portfolio in the future how to approach that look at valuations it's not just jumping into India and I'll make now a video on about how to invest in India it's not easy you see the growth but it's not that easy to invest it's not just putting my money in Indian companies you will see in the next video why you need to know how to invest in India read the economic principles of Ray Dao it's a 305 page report we'll still discuss a lot of things of the report so please subscribe so that we can interact comment share our knowledge but that report is essential to see how the economic machine works to see how the economy global economy Works how it is fit what are the risks and what are the potential rewards because that is what the fundamentals the productivity is what will mostly influence your return in the long term so really focus on that thank you for watching leave your comments click like if you like the content don't forget to subscribe and I'll see you in the next video
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