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today we're going to look at a recent interview with Jeremy Grantham he's been talking more about the Super Bubble that he sees unwinding and the recession that he sees it's going to follow now grant them had this interview with Bloomberg whilst David Rubinstein and he said that he was confident that there'll be a recession that played out deep into next year 2024 and he said it will be accompanied by a decline in stock prices he said the decline in the Super Bubble of this scene has been slowed a little bit by the AI bubble the mini Babble or in this interview he says it's more than a mini Babble but he said it's still playing out and he sees it happening with that recession happening into next year now David points out that Jeremy Grantham has earned a reputation as a doomsday Oracle because he's been predicting bubbles he's got some of them right before they've popped not afterwards he's got some things wrong it has to be said but he has got some of the major events some of the major bubbles throughout the five decades his managed money he's managed to predict those correctly not everybody can do that all the time of course in fact it's very difficult on the macro level but he's managed to do it calls himself a student of Bubbles and he's predicting one now that we've had a Super Bubble in 2021 and it's been deflating so 2022 was part of that but it's been hampered a little bit slowed down by this AI Babble but it's going to play out I'm sure somebody will say in the comments that a broken clock is right twice a day because he has been wrong or at least early but he's been generally right about these bubbles he did identify that 2021 bubble it remains to be seen whether he'll be correct about the timing of this current situation other investors have talked about it to Seth klam and I said we're having everything bubble so he pretty much agrees with Jeremy Grantham on that and so the deflating of the bubble which started in 2021 really the emerging Tech was February 2021 when it started bursting with Arc being one of the most popular stocks ETFs in that sector so he's seen that playing out and it did continue and then it followed with the major indices but then there this year they have gone up so he thinks that the AI boom's got something to do with that but he thinks it's going to continue down so will he be right about that it's a big call for sure and a recession that's a big call for sure considering that the FED has kind of said that they don't think that that's on the horizon now but the FED has been wrong too before so we're gonna have to see what happens I wouldn't certainly wouldn't make these big calls like Grantham is it it's really hard to do Stanley druckenmiller is another person that's made these big calls he thinks the same instincts there's still going to be a recession so these investors are in agreement about this far and you're new here do consider subscribing there'll be a lot more to come grantham's investing goes way back to the 1960s and in this interview he said that he made a small fortune and lost it in 1968 in that Babylon after that he became a die-hard value manager managing money in a value investing way because he learned his lesson from that first bubble and is being identifying Bubbles as since every so often not all the time they happen but sometimes and he says we've just had one he doesn't see himself as a Perma bear he said he sees himself as a realist looking at the world the way it is not the way that he wants it to be but he said that every 20 years or so rarely people get very excited and forget about the fundamentals of companies and just think about the stocks going up just following the stocks are going up and people get carried away he says we've just been through that period he studied the great bubbles of history and after that first experience when he was younger that's how he looks at the world that's how he looks at the market Grantham says that the over enthusiasm for bullishness is just human nature he says there's nothing more irritating than seeing your neighbor get rich by chasing stocks that just keep going up and up even though the fundamentals don't match Warren Buffett has said similar things too by watching your friends and neighbors get rich chasing stalks chasing the fomo and not looking at fundamentals and it does come crashing down later but it's irresistible when there's such Euphoria in the market said such enthusiasm you just want to join in it seems like stocks can go only go up stonks can only go up which is what we saw in the last few years he said it's a very dangerous thing and Grantham says this too now Grantham says that this Tech bubble of 2021 which is called one of the great bubbles is not finished deflating he says it's not over even though the Market's gone up this year he thinks it'll continue we're not over with such a big Babble it needs to deflate more and it will and Then followed by that recession as well now David asked him if he sees this recession starting in 2023 and really we're nearly three quarters of the way through 2023 so there's not that much time left and Grantham says it may start in 2023 yes but he sees it running deep into 2024.
it was pointed out to Grantham in the interview that the FED is not seeing a recession happening they think that we've kind of cleared this hurdle and there won't be a recession and Grantham said that the FED has been woeful it has a woeful record of predicting these things and it's almost guaranteed to be wrong so pretty definitive there against the FED Grantham points out that the feds never caught a recession correctly especially after one of these great bubbles in fact they've prided themselves on stimulating these Bubbles as they've been happening and just did not see the recession coming afterwards contributing to the party the Euphoria adding to the Punchbowl but not seeing the hangover coming he said they always take credit for the beneficial effect of higher asset prices during these bubbles but they don't take credit for the deflationary process as the bubble bursts and prices go down it was pointed out to grant them that it seems like he's not a fan of Jay Powell and what they're doing at the feared and he said well it's largely out of the fed's hands at this point the forces are working he thinks there will be higher inflation moderately higher inflation for an extended period no matter what the FED does and therefore higher interest rates he was asked about this mini Babble and AI that he sees and he said well it's really not that many but many in terms of it not affecting the overall economy it's not one of the great bubble was the Glorious bubbles were coming off one of those bubbles so this is just kind of a blip along the way he doesn't think it's a new bull market just yet thinks there's more deflation to come and this is just a mini bevel along the way as it's deflating as the larger Super Bubble the Glorious bubble that he calls it is deflating so that's what the Doomsday Oracle Jeremy Grantham thinks is going to happen that's how it's going to play out he thinks the bubble is still deflating do you think that we've had this Super Bubble that he talks about and it's still deflating and it will still go down do you think we're in a bull market a new bull market and he's going to be dead wrong and that there will be no recession or do you think he's going to be right I think it's really difficult to predict these things the macro about interest rates inflation what's going to happen in the market I don't know why he tries to do that but he does try to identify these Bubbles and he's been correct about that but what do you think let me know in the comments do you think he's going to be right or wrong okay the previous episode of mad about Grantham I'll put it in the description as well well he talked about this pause in the bubble bust due to this AI MINI BOOM so go and see that
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