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S&P500 고거래량 하락 마감 후 407 지지선 이탈 여부를 주목하라는 기술적 분석. PPI 발표 후 금리 인상 확률 상승(6%→49%)을 하락 요인으로 제시. 나스닥100·다우·러셀2000·테슬라·엔비디아 등 개별 지수·종목 약세 진단. 지지 이탈 시 400/393 하락, 414 돌파 시 421 상승을 시나리오로 제시. 비트코인은 저항대 근처에서 조정 가능성 언급. 채널 디스코드 유료 트레이딩 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
today we saw a high volume selling in the stock market is the S P 500 trying to roll over and die right alright today is going to be a special update and I'm going to spend a lot of time talking about today's price action because I want to make sure you're well informed on exactly what just happened with today's price action so first things first we did see an increase in volume on a selling day and we did close near the low of the day after a very sharp projection from our resistance trend line and remember just yesterday we closed right at resistance at spy 414 so this is going to be the perfect opportunity for the Bears to try to reject the price action and break it down below support so with high volume selling and a bearish candle on increasing volume and we're coming right down to critical support there is a good chance the market could be trying to roll over which means we're going to lose that supports by 407 and start trending back down towards this other support level right around 400 and possibly even retest of the 200 daily moving average around 393.
so what I want you to be aware of is that today we did get the PPI data report and it is now projected that the rates for the year 2023 are going to be an additional 25 basis points higher than originally expected now I know this is a technical analysis Channel but this is very important to understand because this just changed today if you look here in the bottom of your screen you can see the chances of a 525 to 550 basis point hike where only 6.2 percent at the beginning of the year and that has been rising every single week and month that goes by and we went from six percent to 34 up to 46 percent and now 48.9 percent so the reason this is significant is because the market is now pricing in the possibility of higher rate hikes which means that it is not already priced into the market remember the market is forward looking so if it thinks something is changing that it has not yet considered there is going to be the possibility the price action has to account for it so just keep in mind the chances of more rate hikes are now increasing and the market could be reacting to that so if we go back over to the chart of spy and we're looking at the price action you can see the price action is very clearly reacting to that news and we are getting the high volume selling and we have not yet broken down through support So if you're following price action and we break support that means you instantly need to get risk off remember I've been telling you this is a bull Trend and stay on the bull as long as we're in the bull Trend but that is going to instantly change if we break down through support because that means the bull trend is weakening and then we could see a lot more liquidation as Longs exit which is going to mean even more high volume selling as we slice through support and go down for the next leg lower so if we do get the breakdown below support we're looking for that next leg lower it's by 400 and then 393 and you're only going to know this is happening by following the price action don't just go into tomorrow assuming support is going to break wait until the price action confirms it because there's still the possibility we Bounce from this support and even with the extra rate hikes the market shakes it off and continues to climb the wall of worry and we Bounce from support at spy 407 and start marching higher towards the gap for that 421 so don't just assume that it's obvious we're going lower that is a very rookie mistake wait for the price action to confirm it and you have a very solid trade plan from the risk level it's by 407 whether we bounce and go higher or breakthrough and go lower remember you are a retail Trader and you can hit a single button and liquidate your entire portfolio you are not a smart money Trader that takes weeks and months to accumulate and distribute their position before they can make a major move you have the flexibility of changing your entire portfolio with the click of a button so don't be hard-headed if we lose support and you're long on this Market you need to reduce your risk and if you're shorting this market and we bounce off support you also instantly need to reduce your short exposure do not make the mistake of messing this up because this is a very simple trade plan and that is why I'm spending extra time going over it with you this is a major shift in Market sentiment if we lose support and it looks like we're going to get more rate hikes so use the price action guideline at that breakup support or bounce off support at spy 407.
now keep in mind the critical resistance up here is still spy 414 so if you want to remain short on this market and you're already in a short position you need to manage a risk around that critical resistance at spy 414 because if we break out above that level we are very likely going into the 420s so just view this as a trading range between spy 407 and 414 trade the range until we get the breakout and then once we get the breakout you know the next leg higher is 421 or the breakdown below support the next leg lowers 400.
so just follow a pricey action and let it guide you on where we're going from here and just be aware of the possibility that we could be very close to losing this bull Trend if we continue to see high volume selling jumping over to the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were down 1.88 and again you can see the triple cues got rejected from the bottom of the support trend line breakdown and we did get a bearish close at the very bottom of the candle on higher volume selling and we are getting very close 299 so just like spy you have a very well defined risk level on the triple Q's anywhere between 299 and about 301 which is that level at 294.
remember this is still a bullish pattern of a double bottom breakout from the double bottom off 260 as long as we're above 294 but that does not mean that we will not come back down and retest that breakout before going any higher so there is going to be the possibility in the short term that we are going lower before we go any higher that goes hand in hand with what we're seeing in the price action and the increase in selling and we did lose the support trend line so your next trigger to go short is either a breakdown below 299 or just shorting up against that resistance right around 308 until we break above it so you make your own trade planning you manage your own risk I'm just helping you understand where the price action could be heading and right now if we break down below the support right around 299 we could be going to 294 and then if we break 294 we're looking for The Gap bill right around 288 so let the price action guide your trading and the resistance to break will be between 308 and 309 and then if we can slice through that resistance we should start marching higher towards the gap for that 322.
on the Dow Jones we were down 1.25 and again increasing selling as we get rejected from that resistance around 343 and now we're back down within the triangle which means we could be coming back down towards 334. this is still a bull flag when it's all said and done but we don't know when it's going to break out and we don't know if we're going to revisit 327 before we go any higher so right now you need to be a lot more cautious while we're trading below 339 because if we break 334 we're likely coming down to 327.
the bull breakouts will be above 343 and 346 and then we'll be Off to the Races to run into the 350s on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were down 0.96 percent today and you could see the Russell 2000 is still closing above the rising 20 daily moving average and still has the bull Trend but that can change very quickly if we see a continuation of today's selling and we break down through this support right around 191 and then we have critical support at 188 all the way down to about the gap for that 180 but we will need to break this other support right around 185 so just keep in mind this rejection could be day one of a sell-off and that is going to be from this resistance right around 195.
now if we do break resistance at 195 the next level higher will be 198 and then we have price Targets in the low 200s but you cannot get overly bullish while we're trading below that resistance at 195 and just saw a sharp rejection from it on the arcade ETF we were down 2.78 today and RK is looking bearish currently because we're getting rejected below the support trend line breakdown which is this resistance right around 43 so if we do break down below the support at 41.6 we could be well on our way for the next leg lower back down towards 38.
you're also going to have support right around 40.4 but if we start losing that support Look Out Below because we could be going much lower and it is still possible with the higher volume selling that RK is trying to make another leg lower the upside resistance the brake will be right around 43 and then 44.5 and 45.7 on the Vex we were up 10.65 percent as the vix is now spiking back above 20 after just getting crushed back down below it so we need to instantly be a lot more cautious with the vix biking and sitting at critical support in spy remember vix above 20 is going to tell us fears coming back into the market so we need to instantly be a lot more cautious if we see the vix getting crushed back down below 20 and maintaining the bull Trend by bouncing off support you can stay on the ball and just about 0.86 percent and Bitcoin is running into that critical resistance zone between 24 425 000 and this is exactly where Bitcoin is likely going to start stalling out and getting ready to roll over and go through a correction doesn't guarantee it will but there's a good chance from here this could have been a bull trap because it does look like we could be finishing this impulse higher and getting ready to go through a correction that correction will likely take us back down towards the 200 daily moving average right around 19 600 so if you missed this move I do not suggest chasing it because it is very likely just now finishing out the bullet Trend and getting ready to go through a correction on Amazon's stock we were down 2.98 and Amazon is getting rejected below that critical resistance at 102 and came back down towards the critical support between 97 and 98.
we lose support we're coming back down towards 94 and the gap for that 90 and we're only getting bullish once we break the resistance at 102 because that means we could start marching higher towards 109 to 115. on Microsoft stock we were down 2.66 percent and we did lose the support at 267 and we did fill the Gap below 264 but we are looking like a bearish close right on top of the 13 EMA so if we continue lower tomorrow we'll be looking for the gap for that 258 you can get more bullish on a break above 267 but we still have strong resistance up there at 274.
on Nvidia stock we were down 3.35 today and we lost the support trend line and we are getting rejected around that resisted zone between 227 and the Gap fill above 230 which means we could be coming back down towards support at 213. if we lose support at 213 this looks like a bearish double top which means we could be coming all the way back down down to 192.
on Tesla stock we were down 5.69 and Tesla starting to look like it's going through some high volume selling and it does look like we're getting rejected just below that negatively slo support at 204 96 or this critical support around 183. now keep in mind 183 is a very strong support because we have a ton of support including the rising 20 daily moving average so if we do come all the way back down to the support level I do expect it to hold as we see high volume buying and that should be enough of a dip to send us back up higher towards our price Target at 230.
on Apple stock we were down 1.04 percent after Apple did hit the critical resistance at 156 and instantly got rejected even though we still are closing above all the moving averages and still have the bull Trend further rejection from resistance could send us back down towards support at 150 and then below 150 we're looking for support around 148 and the Gap closed just below 147.
on the financials we were down 1.01 as we closed right on top of the rising 20 the moving average and the breakout of support but so far we are maintaining the bull Trend if the financials roll over and die that's going to be bearish for the indices on the Industrials we were down 1.03 percent price action is still above the rising 20 daily moving average but it's definitely looking like we're going through some type of resistance around this double top Zone around 103.
on the healthcare sector we were down one percent today and the rejection from 134 brought us all the way back down towards our support at 130.5 so from here we need to see a sharp balance and we need to break that resistance at 134 and then we can get bullish in the healthcare sector the energy sector was down 0.98 percent after getting rejected below the support which is right here at the resistance at 89 and this could send us down lower towards a rising 200 daily moving average at 82.6 so jumping back over the S P 500 do not take it lightly that we're seeing high volume selling right on top of critical support so if we gap down and lose the support in the morning we can continue to see high volume selling remember if you need help treading in this market we are absolutely crushing this Market in the Sox channel Discord and we spent a lot of the day just loading up on short positions because we saw the price action and we knew there was a very good chance we were going to roll over from resistance and come back down to support trading price action and managing a risk are the best way to be a profitable Trader so if you want to come check out the how and check the email and text message so if you're wanting help in this market or want to come trade with the community you can find out how to join bank or the stock show on Discord by clicking on the links
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