저자: 미상 · 외국인
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S&P500이 407~408 지지선에서 거래량 동반 반등하며 기술적 강세 유지, 414~417 저항 돌파 시 421 갭 메우기 및 430대까지 상승 가능성 제시. 나스닥100 선물, 다우, 러셀2000, 애플·마이크로소프트·엔비디아·테슬라 등 개별 종목도 지지·저항 기준으로 강세 시나리오 제시. 지지선 이탈 시 하락 전환 가능성도 함께 언급.
다듬은 글
today we saw price action testing some very critical support levels and the Bulls stepped in and we saw some high volume buying that brings us back over the 50 retracement 's spy was up 1.31 and intraday we did test that critical breakout level as support which is that level right rounds by 408. now there's a few things I want to go over tonight and the first one is I want you to pay attention to the volume because we did go up on increasing volume when we did get the bounce off of that support level so that is generally going to tell you there are a lot of buyers just chomping at the bit waiting to buy at that support level and they had the opportunity to buy into the market today to prove this is still a bull Trend and that is exactly what the price action proved to us so remember this is a technical analysis Channel and we follow the price action and the trend and we don't just come up with a bear bias based on some fundamental reasons if the chart is bullish we stay bullish because the chart is what pays us it's okay to be wrong in trading as long as you're managing your risk but it's not okay to stay wrong and continue to lose money in a bold Trend by just blindly shorting a bull Trend so yes this is a bullish chart so yes it is still a by the dip market so yes that does mean bulls are going to show up at support levels e fact that bears from fomc's clothes are still underwater in their short positions if they did not cover at this support retest today you can tell from the price action we undercut the closing price from the fomc and that was just enough time for the Bears that were dying to get out of their short positions to cover for tiny gains or slight losses before we got the strong bounce but now any bears that are still in their short positions are now underwater yet again which does increase the probability we continue to short squeeze higher so remember we're just strictly following the technicals and right now the technicals allow for another short squeeze that easily takes us to spy 421 to fill the Gap and then if we continue need to go higher than that and bears continue to short this bull Trend we could continue to climb into the 430s there's nothing emotional about that it is 100 objective on following this price action and this trend so with today's price we did break above one critical support level which is that 50 retracement of spy which is that level at 414 so this is looking more and more bullish the longer we continue to close over that 50 retracement at some point we will need to correct this bull rally but we're going to see it in the price action when we lose critical support so there's no reason stressing about when that's going to be we will instantly get more bearish if price action turns around and slices through support so that critical support Remains by 408 and then the trend line down here right around 402 and the critical resistance to pay attention to going in the rest of the week is going to be up here right around spy 417 and then that Gap fill at 421.
on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were up 2.07 today and the triple cues had another very bullish day and again just like spy it was all an increase increasing volume so we had a low volume pullback and a high volume balance and that is definitely what you want to see in a bull Trend now the one thing I want you to pay attention to in the triple cues is the fomc Bears are still well underwater because the closing price of fomc was down here right around 301 and we have not yet Revisited that level which means the Bears are still trapped this is a lot of rocket fuel in a bull Trend when you have a lot of Trapped bears that are dying to get out of their positions and that's what causes the dips to be shallow and the bounces to be very impulsive because you're going to have the Bulls buying at support and the Bears covering the short position so you're getting two forces of buying that buying pressure could be enough to have the triple cues push higher into that next price Target higher at 322 but we're not going to be expecting the higher price unless we can clear through this resistance zone between 311 and 313.
if the Bulls push through resistance that means the Bears are at higher prices which means we're going to continue to climb higher in this trend now if we get rejected from 311 is fomc High which is going to be right around 300. if we lose the support trend line the Bulls are getting weaker and we're very likely coming back down to the neckline breakout at 294.
so again follow the price action and follow the trend and right now they are both still bullish on the Dow Jones we were up 0.9 today and the Dow Jones is starting to get a bull breakout from our bull flag triangle which is the breakout above 340. so from here if we can confirm this breakout with another close above the flag that does mean the Dow Jones is likely starting to climb towards the 350s on the way there look for resistance at 343 and 346 and this is a bull breakout with the price action over all of these moving averages with this really nice bull Trend and this really slow climb higher which is exactly what healthy Bulls want to do with that slow climbing the stairs and reaching higher prices downside support will be this breakout right around 340 and then this 50 EMA and bottom of this triangle right around 333 to 334.
on the Russell 2000 iwm ETF we were at .74 today and the small caps did test their support trend line and yet again we saw buyers stepping in at support which means we are still in a bull trend of people buying the dip at support again there's nothing subjective about this we hit support and saw buyers and that is a bull Trend so the small caps are bullish Above This support balance at 191 with the resistance levels between 195 197 and then if we can break through all of that resistance we're likely going to 201 and then 203 so stay bullish above the breakout and if we lose the support trend line we'll be looking to come back down towards his neckline breakout at 188 on The RK ETF we were up 1.75 percent and RK is getting the bounce off of the support right here at 41.6 and we're back over all of the moving averages with the price action as RK is finally starting to build up a bull Trend you can see we're back over the 200 daily moving average and the moving averages are starting to cross over to support the buyers so that does mean you can stay bullish in The RK ETF as long as it's above 40 dollars if we break below 40 you're looking for a revisit down here to 38.2 and the next upside resistance will be 44.5 and then 45.7 7.
on the Vex Weaver down 3.96 percent today as the vix tested resistance yet again at 20 and yet again the vix got crushed when it tried to break out I continue to tell you that a low vix is not always bearish because in Bull Trends you are going to have a vix below 20 so don't just assume because the vix is below 20 that means we have to go back into a bear Market that was the behavior of last year because last year was a bear Market but we have no idea if we are still in that bear Market this year until the Vic starts biking back over 20.
so stay bullish of a low fear bull Trend Market while the vix continues to crush below 20 and right now that is exactly what it continues to do on bitcoin we're currently up just over 2.2 percent with Bitcoin trading back over 23 000 and back over all of our moving averages so Bitcoin is building out this bull flag above the breakout at 22 400 trying to rest and get energy to start pushing up higher towards thirty thousand on the way to 30 000 we're looking for resistance anywhere between 24 000 all the way up to about 25 000 so there is going to be plenty of resistance in the zone and that is likely why the Bulls are resting at a bull flag before they try to push higher yet again so stay bullish above the breakout at 22 400 21 300.
on Amazon we were down point zero seven percent today and Amazon had a very nice strong balance off of that very critical support at 98 and came all the way back up to one of our very critical resistance levels at 102 so we did see the full range in Amazon today we're bullish above 102 for a revisit up to 109 and we're getting a lot more cautious if we break below support at 98 because we could be coming back down to 93.5 and possibly even fill the Gap at 90.
but as long as Amazon is above the support trend line and the support level at 98 I think you can buy the dip for a great risk Ward setup that could take us back up to the 100s and possibly even close the gap around 1 15. on Microsoft stock we were up 4.2 percent today and Microsoft again had a very nice strong day ever since we bounced off of the breakout level right here at 255 and that was also going to be a gap fill in the daily chart so we gapped up in closing the high of the day today and got a direct hit on our price Target just above 267.
so from here we'll need to break that resistance to get to the next price Target higher at 274. downside support levels are going to be right around 265 and the gap for that 258 and as long as we can hold Above This breakout level at 255 I want you to stay on this bull if we break support we still have critical support at 252 but if we lose support we could be coming all the way back down to our support trend line which is going to be this level right around 242.
on Nvidia stock we were up 5.14 today as Nvidia did clear through that resistance at 213 and you can tell we are still in this bull trend of higher lows and higher highs and we just put another higher high end today the next upside price targets are 227 and then the gap for that 230 and the critical downside support at this point will be 213 because if we lose that that means we're losing 192.
on Tesla stock we rub 1.05 today and we closed ever so slightly above that resistance that I have just above 196 which means there is a good chance Tesla is trying to put push to the next Target higher at 205 above 205 we run all the way back up to 230 and even though I did expect some consolidation here that does not guarantee that I'm correct but I still think we need to take some time off the clock and let all of these shorts out of this stock before we push higher to 230 but again I have no clue we could push straight there and you're going to know that by following the price action and that means we're going to see price breaking these resistance levels I consider critical downside support down here at 183 and 173 so as long as we're above that support and above this Rising 5 EMA you can stay bullish in Tesla stock on Apple stock we rub 1.92 today with a bullish engulfing candle after an inside day yesterday and we did bounce off the support yet again around 151 and we're coming right back up towards the resistance at 156.
so this is basically going to be a range between 150 and 156 with a bull breakout being above 156 that could start taking us to 170. if we lose support at 150 we're very likely coming down here to fill the Gap just below 147. on the financials we were up 1.15 and we're holding the bullish breakout with the bull Trend so the financials are still looking very bullish the Industrials were up 0.31 percent with price action above all the moving averages and they're still holding the bull Trend the healthcare sector was up 0.64 percent getting the bounce off to the bottom of the channel but overall still in a downtrending channel towards that support at 1 30.
the energy sector was up 3.25 today mostly just a dead cat bounce off of being oversold to the downside so we are looking for a resistance between 88 and 89 and if we get rejected we are looking for a push down to 82.6 so jump it back over to the S P 500 it's very important if you are trading in the stock market that you are being objective in following the price action in the trend it's okay to have ideas and have a fundamental bias but at the end of the day it is the price action on the chart that you are trading and that is what pays you so don't get lost in any narratives about where the market should be going strictly follow the chart and look at where it is going once you get in the habit of being a objective and not carrying which direction the market goes in then you will truly start unlocking your potential as a Trader and it's always going to come back to risk management and making sure your losses are smaller than your wins so if you're frustrated at this bull Trend you're probably shorting it which means you simply just need to look at the chart in the direction it's moving and start looking at opportunities to buy off support instead of trying to short this bull rally if you're mad at me or you're mad at the market it is simply because your trade plan is not doing what the chart is telling you there's nothing that I am telling you personally that is going against anything on the chart so there is no reason for you to be mad at me for being bullish because the market is bullish and I am simply following what the market is telling us also don't forget I wan my members only video and you can find out how to join the Discord Community
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