원문 보기
warren buffett has made some very key points some rational statements but let's face it while the market still hangs on to every word he says they'll quote him regularly they will continue to ignore the points he's been making over the last few years quite frankly when you're trying to buy an asset the hope is that you will one day sell it for more than what you paid that's the proper terminology for value investing it's finding the needle in haystack of quality investments choosing very wisely and keeping a very close watch on it all today there's a false belief that the fed has cancelled financial cycles um really look initially at what warren buffett has actually said what he has done i covered in a video just recently what has moved around in his portfolio as you have seen trimming their position just a little bit in apple trimming what they had in other financial companies big selloffs and wells fargo and others and it is known that he has been moving the portfolio in a different direction than let's say where others have been because if you see the changes made to some of these big investment companies they're going heavy on tech whereas you can see with brookshire hathaway they are looking for a different type of company now their massive position in apple shows that they like technology it's not that they are steering away entirely from technology but they need to be able to value the company and today the metrics are so messed up that things don't really make sense and he covers that so stay with me stay with me don't comment yet because i want to show you what he has to say about all of that and the euphoria that's in the markets today okay so he explains it much better than i could ever do you're looking here at some other data in this video that will correspond to this okay because we are seeing this craziness that's taking place i've got some charts i got some other information today and what i see for the future here i want to do an entire video about it is that we are going towards this automation and robotics and big changes in many different sectors that will leave a lot of people out of work as a result and that's going to put additional pressure on the government as right now 27 of all income coming is coming from the government 27 of all the income that is completely unsustainable and that's a trend that's been increasing in general decade after decade this is not a good sign so let's get into the information right away buffett's berkshire snaps up record 24.7 billion dollars of own stock billionaire says repurchases have continued since the end of the year and the cash pile declines five percent from the third quarter to 138 billion dollars they still have a massive cash position as you can see but according to berkshire the best use of 24.7 billion dollars was simply to buy back their own stock they could have made a massive acquisition perhaps more than one with 24 25 billion dollars but instead they simply bought back their own shares what does that tell you about what they are seeing out there in the landscape it's pretty interesting isn't it here he's talking about the mania that's taking place and you could see the quote as they go in this bloomberg article just talking about what uh specifically buffett had to say retail investors newfound exuberance harkens back to the mania of the dot-com bubble in 2001 when buffett ridiculed some investors understanding of the market in a way that he could easily resurrect 20 years later it was as as if some virus had been racing wildly among investment professionals as well as amateurs induced hallucinations in which the values of stocks in certain sectors became decoupled from the values of the businesses that underlay them and that's what happens any single time you run through these cycles when we get towards the peak you and really throw away everything that once mattered and suddenly you could say well it doesn't count anymore because this is technology or this is the future this is going to happen you know and that's absolutely a fact there are certain things that come into play that will will do better than where they were previously if all these technology companies internet companies were really valued at a very high level at some point maybe they come down they crash down but they do come back up if they're valuable if people continue to use their products and services and they can generate revenue after a period of time this is of course going to be something very good look at amazon stock amazon stock took an absolute beating back during the dot-com boom and bust but many many years later they were able to basically make it out of that cycle a lot of companies however do not and that's the important point that i want to stress a lot of these companies will not make it out of a down cycle so you have to be very careful in what you put your money into another quote from buffett investing illusions can continue for a surprisingly long time wall street loves the fees that deal making generates and the press loves the stories that colorful promoters provide at a point the soaring price of a promoted stock can itself become the proof that an illusion is reality eventually of course the party ends and many business emperors are found to have no clothes and that's something so interesting and i like the way that this was written it tells you what's going on and you could see the way that he sees everything taking place today he doesn't have to do what he's doing at this point obviously he could buy things he could sell things you can do whatever he thinks is right i mean the guy is 90 years old at this point you know he's doing this because he's interested in it this is a passion of his hobby of his i'm sure same with charlie munger 97 years old these guys are looking at this and they're not going to beat around the bush okay that's the point i'm trying to make they're not going to beat around the bush they're going to tell it like it is they're not there and just to be clear they've got a massive massive portfolio of companies stocks that they own but also companies they own outright and we'll talk about that in just a second but you can see very clearly that they don't want to move their money into what they believe are risky bets they didn't become wealthy by doing this they look at undervalued assets and simply buy them when they think the time is right and then after a long period of time they see the benefit of that they don't have to make money tomorrow they don't have to make money over the next three months they're thinking very very long term even longer than their own lifespan i think that's the difference between somebody like uh warren buffett charlie munger and comparing that to the average investor average and unless you look at what jp morgan analysts are saying and all this stuff it's a completely different mindset okay i just i just want to stress that here another really important point here that he mentioned was quote fixed income investors worldwide whether pension funds insurance companies or retirees face a bleak future competitors for both regulatory and credit rating reasons must focus on bonds and bonds are not the place to be this day i really really worry about pension funds because i know that for a lot of people they're relying on this and i have covered this over the years you've seen one or two or three getting slashed here and there and people their voices aren't able to be heard so you don't really get that information spread around but this is happening it's real and unfortunately we are going to see some people getting really hurt that were relying on this type of money and it's simply not going to come their way if you've been following the channel closely over the last couple weeks i've been trying to interject points here that i believe are beneficial for the investors specifically getting that mindset in and understanding certain stocks certain sectors industries and so on i'm trying not to just give you what's on the screen but give you a little insight a little knowledge here so look at this one don't overlook middle america the billionaire highlighted berkshire's two wholly owned american businesses bnsf railway and berkshire hathaway energy which earned 8.3 billion dollars in 2020.
this is a quote here and this is what i want to note your railroad carries about 15 of all non-local ton miles of goods that move in the united states whether by rail truck pipeline barge or aircraft the history of american railroads is fascinating after 150 years or so of frenzied construction skullduggery overbuilding bankruptcies reorganizations and mergers the railroad industry finally emerged a few decades ago as mature and rationalized and that just tells you something right there as well anyway i also wanted to note the fact that we can see that certain industries last a very long time okay so i know there's a lot of push for example with clean energy it doesn't uh you know make the other one disappear okay so once you had let's say we went away from the horse and buggy and we went into the you know onto cars it didn't make one industry just disappear overnight there are years and years of overlap and look for this particular example here the rail didn't go away sure people aren't traveling as much on rail as they did you know 100 years ago or whatever it was you can see that times have changed there's absolute certainty there but also people are still using older technologies and there are opportunities even decades and decades and decades later in certain companies in certain sectors and industries last thing i wanted to show you about buffett is right here berkshire cath cash and short-term investments and you can just see over the years since 2010 up until the present in general their cash pile just continues to grow and grow and grow and it is absolutely massive at this point i really do think that if the markets are just going to tank they are going to make some massive acquisitions so we'll see what happens in the future this article here is talking about bill you know him and essentially he's the us's biggest farm land owner and they get into uh you know all the details you need to know about his purchases where the land is it breaks it down on the map gives you all the details about it essentially you're trying to say that he's diversifying his assets there's different reasons it's not just um farmland specifically some of them is going to be mixed use and it's all based on the llc's and corporations that he's got in partnership with this group or that group so it's not necessarily him that owns it but it's all done in a certain way this article covers that if you are interested in his purchases and what he's been doing which i do think is significant i would recommend reading this article here it's simple but but it really gives you some insight into that i think it would be fair to characterize the time from the late march 2020 until now as being the worst period on record for short interest factors understand what's going on right now nobody short in the market and most of the people that do are getting burned not just because of what happened with gamestop and so on but the obvious fact here is that what the federal reserve is doing is crushing the ability for the market to actually price itself properly the most shorted stocks as you can see right there with that pink line that's the performance there since march 2020 and the least shorted stocks clearly have not done as well you could see that in addition right here looking at the put call ratio just understand from this is that just as i said a moment ago you are seeing so many more people put in bets that the market will head higher that these stocks will have higher and very few are being you know put in positions in that are claiming that the you know the markets will decline and obviously there's a reason why because the federal reserve and the other central banks are putting their pedal to the metal and have made it clear they will do whatever it takes to ensure that this policy stays in place this gentleman right here is the first of the ecb to openly call for increasing the pace of ecb bond purchases to stem a rise in borrowing costs i think it's important to talk about this simply because what you can see with the bond market today it's sending major signals um people don't like me talking about a certain people don't like me talking about it because that's that's negative well let me tell you something the only thing negative right now is those interest rates on the whatever it is 14 trillion dollars worth of government bonds i mean that's crazy that's what we should be focusing on but of course all of these different uh central banks around the world will probably do the same thing print up more and more and more money the reserve bank of australia the ecb i mean i'll do it why not join the party i showed you other banks doing the same thing but you could see yet another investment company is firing people bank of america is firing people in its investment bank again after pausing annual staff culling this is just one more to join the list td to close 82 u.s bank branches as the situation drives digital growth that's right everybody's going online no longer do we need as many of the branches very clear replace them with ipads if necessary and that's just the way it is and that means that people are going to need to look at different ways of producing income i think a lot of things are going to be different over the next 10 years people who are in the school system today when they're done their schooling i think it's going to be a completely different world but we'll see what happens right here they're just showing you that this particular restaurant lee's famous recipe restaurant is now going towards when you drive through there it's an actual artificial intelligence that's going to take your order it's going to put it through their system the humans are actually listening just to make sure that everything's all good but you know that's just one step one step they gotta get rid of the robots are flipping the burgers now they're taking your order it's just one thing at a time that's all for this video if you found that informative hit that thumbs up button when you do you are supporting me i want to thank you for that if you want to learn about e-commerce you can do so for free absolutely for free at my course my website the amazon gps.com if you want to understand the financial system from top to bottom a to z and you have that explained extremely easily right here it's in my two books check them out at the link in the description if you want the audiobook instead it's available at themoneygps.com if you haven't seen this video yet you definitely want to check it out it's just a click away i'll see you there
Comments 0