저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 2021년 2월 영상으로, 인플레이션과 중앙은행 개입에 따른 금리 상승 위험을 경고하며 구조적 취약성을 강조하는 내용이다. [빌 애크먼 관련] - 애크먼은 2020년 3월 코로나 폭락 때 주식을 공격적으로 매수했다고 설명되며, 이는 헤지펀드의 양방향 베팅 방식으로 해석된다. - 2021년 금리 상승 베팅으로 약 26억 달러 수익을 냈다고 언급된다. - 그는 금리 급등을 다음 큰 시장 위험으로 보며 연중 인플레이션 급등을 예상했다고 소개된다. [중앙은행 개입 및 금리] - 호주 중앙은행(RBA)은 대규모 채권 매입에도 금리 상승을 막지 못했다고 지적된다. - 연준·ECB·일본은행의 대차대조표가 계속 팽창하고 있으며, 연준 자산은 약 7.6조 달러 수준이라고 언급된다. - 채권시장이 연준보다 먼저 금리 인상을 반영할 수 있다는 기대가 제시된다. [인플레이션 및 자산 성과] - 구리 가격은 2020년 3월 이후 크게 올라 2011년 이후 최고 수준 근접이라고 언급된다. - 지난 1년간 구리가 최상위 성과를 냈고, 은·나스닥·MSCI 신흥국 주식도 좋은 성과였다고 설명된다. S&P500은 언급이 많지만 상대적 성과는 강조되지 않았다. - 기술주 밸류에이션(세계 기술주 12개월 선행 이익수익률 - 미국 10년물 금리) 지표가 과거 조정 구간과 유사하다고 제시된다. [리스크 및 조건] - 중앙은행의 금리 억제가 지속되면 인플레이션·통화 가치 훼손 위험이 커진다는 조건부 경고이다. - 변동성 지수(VIX)가 30 이상에서도 급등 가능성이 있어 시스템이 취약하다고 주장된다. - 과거 여러 국가의 하이퍼인플레이션 사례를 들어 어느 나라에서도 발생 가능하다고 강조된다. [출연자 전망] - 연준의 실제 금리 인상은 가까운 시일보다는 향후에 있을 수 있다는 기대가 언급된다. - 애크먼의 향후 포지션 변화는 13F 공시로 확인해야 한다고 언급된다. - 개별 종목에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
we have seen a major surge in stocks that had come off of the fastest drop in history on a global scale looking at which assets have performed the best and why is sometimes a very confusing subject simply because many aren't justified but this is the new reality of the backwards upside down easy fed money world that we live in investors for some reason believe that the fed can stop any problem but as we see with australia despite record level intervention in order to keep their silly games going they now have to take it up a notch you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you today we are going to begin by understanding what bill ackman had to say i will give you the historical context first and then we're going to move into what he said right now and we got to follow not just what bill ackman is doing but of course what all of these big companies are up to but not just what you see in the media the little pieces the little quotes but we gotta dig a little deeper we are also going to understand what the federal reserve ecb and the boj have been up to i'll show you that and we're going to look at different factors of inflation whether that's come in the form of copper or all different assets over the last year and how their performance has been all right so let's get into it right away i wanted to start by saying that people look at his original quote of hell is coming and they don't take the entire thing in context i don't know what this guy is doing on a daily basis i'm not defending him or his actions or what he has said but i always know that when you see a quote in cnbc and bloomberg and so on we can't just take those few words we need to read the whole uh interview that he did we got to see what's going on with the 13f to see all the trades that they've been making and then compare that in a historical context and see the patterns that are outlined okay but this is something i wanted to mention really quickly here bill ackman warned that hell is coming he then pocketed two billion dollars in bets against the markets okay so here right here he's basically just talking about the fact that hell is coming then suddenly he does a 180 that's the way people saw this but i want to show you something else this is what he had to say and this was specifically march 18 2020.
some investors have been confused by remarks to clarify i am confident that they're going to temporarily shut down the country close the borders if that happens eventually the economy will soar quote that that is why we are buying stocks these are bargains of a lifetime if we manage this crisis correctly i've been aggressively buying stocks including hilton today and i've been buying all the way down hilton restaurant brands and starbucks so if you take the original quote and that's all you knew you wouldn't see this information and how that really plays in to the whole deal so he was basically just doing what hedge funds do they are always always speculating that's what they do there's speculation and in this case here this individual saw that there was a correction taking place but he's buying stocks at the same time so they hedge their bets they buy in different ways than the average investor they're not always going long that's what we need to understand here again not defending his actions i don't know what's going on in a daily basis but we always need to see the broader picture of how these hedge funds work fast forward a year later where we are today and you can see hedge fund king bill ackman bets on interest rate rises crashing the markets hedge fund manager isa repeated the trade and that is funds billions of dollars when stocks plunged last year all right now we look into this and you could see that he made 2.6 billion dollars for his funds now the fund manager has identified a surprise rise in interest rates as the next big risk for markets we will see a spike in inflation as early as the middle of the year it is already starting to happen at some point if rates move enough then it becomes a market risk event and this is something that people would say no no impossible impossible i say but you gotta look at it objectively and realize that this is already happening and that's why he's saying this you're watching the rates starting to rise not the fed funds rate of course but you see the bond market and it's starting to freak some people out mr ackman said that he bought instruments that pay off in a large way in the event of a surprising move in rates there is a finite amount of money that we can lose which is not material to the fund and if we are right on rates then we make a lot of money we want to protect ourselves against huge market moving events we look to buy insurance against disaster so this is the reason i mentioned that previously because you have to understand the way that the hedge funds work if they make one bet even if it's two billion dollars that's not everything they're not putting all their chips in it works a lot differently than the average retail trader how they're just go all in or they sell everything off or they make gambles one way shape or form this is different and i just wanted to highlight that i think it's important because there's a lot of misinformation that's going on out there and this is one very good example that highlights it now what's he going to do tomorrow what's he going to do next week i don't know we'll be able to determine this looking at the different trades that any public company is making so that would be a great follow-up i've got to do and we'll see what happens just a quick note on that you can see from the fourth quarter of 2020 bill ackman slims down top holdings in the fourth quarter so you could see here you remember what he said he was buying right the top five trades of the quarter were reductions made in starbucks restaurant brands and he also mentions here hilton so that's something interesting because those are the ones he was buying up and maybe he feels that they have sort of run their course as far as you know the trades that he made and this would be interesting to see what happens in the coming months to see if he made the right decision the average investor out there believes that the federal reserve has full control of what happens in the markets but of course that isn't the case look at this example here related to australia interest rate ra jump tests rba companies and governments face rising borrowing costs as the reserve bank of australia fails to suppress bond yields and the strong australian dollar despite the central bank's aggressive three billion dollars of bond purchases on thursday so they're intervening in the markets at an on you know we've never seen this before this has been the most ever not just the reserve bank of australia has been doing but basically all around the world and yet in australia they're unable to do this simple task why because the pressure the pressure is on when you see what they're doing they're trying to like artificially suppress interest rates of course that's going to have this reverberating effect in the markets that are felt you cannot control these things without it bouncing back without it having repercussions that's what needs to be understood you can force certain things to happen like low interest rates but not without problems along the way and they're starting to feel that right now same thing is going on in the us and right here because they've been actively manipulating their bond yields this is going to have a serious problem down the road because in order to do this the only action that the central banks can do is print money how do they manipulate interest rates literally by printing money of course in a digital form the rba and its policy setting board meeting next uh tuesday may consider increasing its 200 billion dollar quantitative easing program to push down market interest rates contain the currency and to defend the credibility of its commitment to ultra low rates we'll see what happens but my friends in australia pay very close attention to this news there is some serious expectation right now that the federal reserve will in fact hike interest rates not today not tomorrow but in the near future the expectation here is potentially justified because of what's been happening with the bond market and the bond market doesn't care what the federal reserve meeting is all about the bond market doesn't care about janet yellen doesn't care about any of these people that are involved in the way that the monetary system financial system is working they do what they do and right now you see it the you know the implications of the entire intervention that's been going on is really seen and it's really being visible more and more as they go deeper and deeper and deeper into this it's a huge mistake i mean look at their this happens to be the federal reserve you could see their balance sheet continues to expand we've escalated to the point where it's almost 7.6 trillion dollars you see the ecb going up to you know higher and higher numbers every single week for the most part and same with the bank of japan they're all doing this we know that it is the case because they want to devalue their currencies they want to manipulate they want to trap more and more people and it's working very very well even the vix index which we know is so heavily manipulated it's being shorted all the time and you can understand what occurs here in a time when the vix itself has increased to a level that is above 30 when you've got all the money printing all the interest rate suppression and still still still the vix can actually increase really rapidly in just you know a matter of a day or two so when you see this happening we need to be aware of how fragile the system really is that's what it tells us looking back over the last year you could see the asset performance and copper happens to top the list you don't find many people talking about that in a you know daily events but here it is looking beyond that you can see silver the nasdaq of course msci emerging market equities but what do you hear about you hear about the s p 500 the s p 500 and gets all the news it gets all the glory but things like copper and silver had performed extremely well over this period of time tick tock is global tech living on borrowed time this is just basically comparing these two charts at the top world technology 12 12-month forward earnings yield minus the u.s 10-year bond yield and it parallels with the msci world and essentially all it's trying to note is that when we are at the levels we are at today there happens to be corrections that take place some of them are quite small some of them are larger but either way that's where we're at today yet another indicator to show you to give you some idea of what's happening inflation is anywhere you look and you could see right now with copper that has been pushed up significantly since march 2020 just giving you an update we are going back to levels we haven't seen since 2011 and it looks like if this continues for another couple months we're going to exceed that now speaking of inflation take a look at this chart from deutsche bank inflation series for all countries that we have continuous data going back to 1900 on a log scale ordered highest to lowest over this period and it just shows you all i'm trying to note from this is that there have been countless countries countless countries that have experienced extremely high rates of inflation doesn't necessarily you know you look at one or the other once it gets to a certain point it really doesn't matter anymore because that hyperinflation destroys the currency destroys the saver destroys everything the livelihoods and so on but all i'm trying to highlight here is that yeah it can happen wherever you are that's the point two points really quickly i just want to show you kind of wackiness that we're living in today speculative crypto art market takes off i didn't understand what this is but you can see in this case here they are charging people you know right here hundreds of thousands of dollars this one here sold 20 artworks for 3.5 million dollars in december and to me it just seems crazy to even think about but this is becoming a thing now and then we have this article out of bloomberg it's all about sneakers sneakers are a big business here and it's continuously increasing the speculation is getting into all these different markets now always uh there there's always a demand whether it's for trading cards and playing cards and all this things but you can see right now with the sneakers they've gone into this berserk category i mean it's crazy it's just just another aspect of this i wanted to bring up because inflation is seemingly in these different pockets and this happens to be some of them that's all for this video if you found it informative hit that thumbs up button when you do you're supporting me i want to thank you for that if you want to learn about e-commerce for free you could do so at the amazon gps.com if you want to take a look at my books the links are in the description and if you haven't seen this video already you definitely want to check it out click it and 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