저자: TheMoneyGPS진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 시장 과열 지표와 상품지수 약세 신호를 근거로 조정 가능성을 경고하지만, 구체적 방향 예측은 명확하지 않다. 시장 과열: S&P 500이 50개월 이동평균 대비 과도하게 상승했으며, PPO 지표상 1987년·닷컴 버블 직전과 유사한 과열 신호가 나타났다고 주장한다. 다만 과열이 곧 폭락을 뜻하지는 않는다고 강조한다. 경기 지표: 필라델피아 연은 제조업지수가 하락세로 전환했고, 실업수당 청구건수는 감소했다. 공급망 병목(항구 적체, 칩 부족으로 인한 자동차 생산 차질 700만 대)도 언급했다. 상품지수: 상품지수가 고점을 높이며 상승하다 7월 30일 이후 조정받았고, 8월 13일 이후 하락 전환했다. 205 수준 이탈 시 경기 약세 신호로 해석한다. 주식 시장 심리: S&P 500이 약 200거래일 동안 5% 이상 하락하지 않았다는 점을 언급하며, 캐시 우드의 '버블 아니다' 발언을 반박하고 워런 버핏의 1,440억 달러 현금 보유를 행동 근거로 제시했다. 중국 기술주: 알리바바 등 중국 기술주가 타격을 받고 있으며 중국 기술 섹터의 성장 최고점이 지났다는 관측을 소개했다. 기타: 아마존의 오프라인 대형 매장 계획, 플로리다·캘리포니아 임대료 급등, 해운 정체 등을 뉴스로 전했다. 진행자 입장: 누구의 말도 맹신하지 말고 스스로 판단하며 감정을 배제하라는 메시지. 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없음.
다듬은 글
i've got some very important information to get into today the first thing i want to look at is the ultravaluations things are off the charts the second thing i want to look at are the anomalies that are in the system these anomalies are not what you're going to get in the mainstream media we know that that's why you're here and the third thing i want to look at is the economic mistakes mistakes are all over the place today and i'll give you the information you need to know you need to stay tuned because this is going to affect your portfolio this is going to affect your assets and this is going to affect your livelihood so let's go i'm going to start the video off by showing you some charts some indicators and i wanted to explain the fact that no matter how many different indicators show us that things are crazy things are overvalued it does not mean that it's going to turn around the next day and crash we need to understand this what it shows us is the current economic climate okay that's what you need to know okay you need to know this information and then you make your judgments based on it not simply saying well i don't need to worry i don't need to care fundamentals are thrown out technical analysis is not good i'm simply just going to go pedal to the metal and that's that that's not a wise thing to do you should have all the information in front of you and make the right choice which is a choice that you personally believe looking at this chart right now at the top you're seeing the s p 500 which is the black line and below that is a moving average this is not the 50-day moving average but instead we're looking at the 50 month moving average because this chart goes back from the 1970s up until today and when you see the price rocketing way too high way too fast generally it comes down okay doesn't mean it comes down by one percent or two percent or 20 or 50 percent it simply means that it's overdue for some sort of correction but like i said we don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow so there have been times in history where this has really moved up excessively in a short period of time and at the bottom by the way you're seeing the ppo this is a different indicator it's an oscillator it's the percentage price oscillator to be specific all you need to know forget about the mumbo jumbo in these previous instances 1987 leading up into the dot-com boom as well and today guess what we are seeing the this overvaluation based on this particular indicator moving averages do tell us a lot okay so you could see you know what happened in 1987 you know what happened during the dot com and now today big question okay we'll see many people somehow believe that because there are new technologies because the federal reserve is there because whatever that there's no possible way that the markets can come down and i think that we need to understand that in 1987 there were very very few people saying oh the market's going to come down in 1999 there were very few people saying the market's going to come down in 2007 same situation okay you're not going to hear from many people telling you that in advance we only know after it comes does that mean that you don't invest no you do what you think is best look at the philadelphia fed manufacturing index this has started to decline okay you're seeing that you're seeing it all over the place it's affecting people it's affecting businesses there are many different factors here there's shipping you got a clog happening you've got i think i have that particular article to show you in a second but anyway look at the jobless claims these are now down hey economy is great right well we'll see then we have this this is the commodities index which i can actually show you here better i found something very interesting okay so we're looking at this particular commodities index and i wanted to give you a little bit of insight as to what's happening okay so the charge starts in the end of april okay and what i'm noticing here which by the way there are always ups and downs and you look at a particular indicator for commodities being lumber look 1700 to now under 500 wow huge change but let's look at the index as a whole and you can see we are getting higher highs and also higher lows do you see that okay that happened multiple times in a row over the last few months this is bullish the pattern is moving up but something happened so after this peak right here on july 30th we then get a dip down which you had multiple times and now it didn't get to where it was previously okay so instead of on this particular commodities index it was at 221 so it had to go above 221 for this pattern to continue but it only got to 216.
okay and you look it got really weak it started to top out right here on august 13th and has since come down so if this breaks below this line right here which is 205 and i'll give you an update on that then we have a problem with commodities that signals definite bearishness in the economy as a whole if that starts to come down because a lot of times the price action is going to tell a story before we get it in the news because you know how slow the news can be this is part of what i wanted to talk about at the beginning the s p 500 hasn't fallen by at least five percent in nearly 200 sessions this is coming out of market watch and you can see the date august 19th don't you remember what was it maybe five days ago i literally brought that to you in a different video the mainstream media is slow okay i'm bringing it to you way before the mainstream knows about it okay by the time they write the articles approved by six bosses come on too slow kathy wood says that stocks are not in a bubble thinks investors betting against her fund are off base talking about michael brewery and so on quote i don't think we're in a bubble which is what i think many bears think we are in a bubble and i remember the late 90s our strategies would have been cheered on you remember the leapfrogging of analysts making estimate one higher after the other price targets one higher after the other we have nothing like that right now in fact you see a lot of ipos or spacks coming out and falling to earth we couldn't be further away from a bubble that's what she says so um when i when i look at quotes like this and when i look at the comparisons is it 1999 is it the year 2000 right now is it the financial crisis is it 2007 2008 is it 1987.
is it 1929 is it the 1970s let me explain that it is 2021 as of this recording it's none of those previous times but it has elements of all of them so don't try and use that and say oh you know what uh you know this time around is different and that so on that's silly you have to understand somebody like this can never ever say that there's a bubble even if it was the tulip mania and we're talking about right at the peak she wouldn't say that it's a bubble if she's invested if her her whole company her whole livelihood is surrounding that you're never gonna hear it you don't even see warren warren buffett's actions and his his words look at this his words never bet against america all the economy so fantastic stock valuations are all good but i'm gonna sit on 144 billion dollars of cash i'm not going to make any major acquisitions because well everything's fantastic come on let's not take their words let's take their actions and kathy wood's company here is clearly going head first into it they're putting their money where their mouth is just like michael bury putting his money where his mouth is even though he doesn't talk very much so we'll see what happens in the end but the point is you can't trust these individuals you got to see what they're doing and you make the decision for yourself nobody is right or wrong until until the time passes till the time passes and then this right here it's just an article uh before we get into the money gps insights talking about commodities talking about what has been happening okay commodity markets shown their signs of wariness with oil and copper prices retreating those are two big ones for the economy of course as a whole there's liquid i love this i love this there's liquidity sitting outside the market that would like to get in and wants to get in on the pullbacks but there haven't been many opportunities i showed you the amount of cash that investors have it's historically very normal cash money markets okay you you need to have cash in the money markets if you're a big investor if you're a big investment company you're always going to have cash on the sidelines sidelines it's not what it is it's that you always want to have some liquid available to you but that's of course not how they see it now there are more things in here that i really wanted to get to but i know i'm going along for example they're talking about the tech stocks in china which are definitely taking a hit whether that's alibaba and they mention a few others in here and just saying that they believe that the best of the growth has passed us at least in the chinese tech sector okay so we'll see what happens and then we have this article here out of the money gps times shocking study reveals and this is by janet von yellensbee and she she says this study finds that people feel better about themselves if they smash the like button on this video 99 of respondents were happier and received lots of fed helicopter money as a result many people don't hit the like button instead go off into a sad and depressing day but with this new study it seems that's obvious how to resolve it smash that like button thank you very much so let's break down what we have today number one some people some investors some companies believe that we are at the beginning of a bull market on the other hand you're seeing some that are saying they're full of bull but in truth neither of them should be listened to and believed we should make the decisions for ourselves we should get rid of the emotions don't be chasing anything oh there's going to be this fantastic thing the the gold at the end of the rainbow or maybe it's going to be the end of the world as we know it we cannot necessarily put all of our faith into one thing or the other we just need to take action every single day let's take a look at some of these right here landlords from florida to california are jacking up rents at a record speed this is so different than what we saw a year year and a half ago california congestion nears new high east coast gridlock worsens take a look at this this is just an example but it looks much much worse in the data i don't know if they have it in this one yes you can see right here take a look at this marine traffic you can go to that website i've talked about it many times before maybe if i move it like this just see all of these different vessels that are here waiting to get in who knows let's see what happens chip crisis threatens to cut auto output by 7 million cars they keep talking about this i think this is obviously a big issue i don't know how we went from 2019 having millions and millions and millions of extra cars sitting around in parking lots sitting on boats so now we have literally a shortfall of 7 million cars things are weird things don't make sense i don't have any anything other than anecdotal evidence about that anyway amazon plans to open large retail locations akin to department stores so as you may know amazon has their own brand called amazon basics they have amazon fashion they have a lot of different products that could be sold in physical stores i think on the surface level it's very weird because then they're paying for the physical locations and i could tell you specifically that amazon does not like to be a warehouse which is really what a department store is they're a warehouse they have stuff and you go in there and you pick it off the shelf and you buy it this could be part of a different model maybe it's to um do something with their their whole foods maybe who knows who knows it's all speculation at this point i don't exactly know what's going on but i'm just bringing the news to you and as it evolves i will be giving that to you you know and any relevant information i'm going to end it there but i wanted you to know that if you're not already i mean why wouldn't you be but you got to be on the insiders it's really good because it's going to be able to get uh to you and i directly we're going to go around the censorship and we're going to bring this channel up to new heights okay you can get that at the card up here or at the moneygps.com if that article by janet von yellensbee didn't already convince you you gotta hit that like button i appreciate it and if you haven't seen this video already you gotta check it out click it and i'll see you there
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