저자: MoneyGPS진행자 · 외국인
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버블 판단은 Bridgewater 기준으로 가격이 역사 대비 높은지, 비현실적 성장 전제가 가격에 반영됐는지, 신규 투자자 유입 등 여러 지표로 해야 한다는 결론. 진행자는 Bridgewater 공동CIO의 발언을 인용해 현재 시장이 상당히 버블 상태라고 봄. 다만 너무 일찍 공매도하는 것은 위험하므로 버블 자체만으로 전액 현금화할 필요는 없다고 강조. 버블 지표로 Buffett 지표(시총/GDP) 등 전통 밸류에이션 대비 가격 고평가, 약 10%의 종목이 20% 이상 매출 성장과 마진 확대를 전제로 가격 형성, 신규 매수자 유입 등을 제시. 인플레이션 관련해 제재목(lumber) 가격이 2021년 사상 최고치를 경신하며 주택가격을 밀어올린다고 설명. 가스 가격과 주요 도시 주택가격 급등도 언급. 주요 자산 수익률 비교에서 구리가 상위권이었고 S&P500도 강했다고 소개. 이더리움·비트코인 급등과 주택 가격의 소득 대비 비싼 수준도 'everything bubble' 맥락에서 우려. 진행자는 인플레이션 방어를 위해 ETF나 선물 등 자산 보유를 언급하되, 특정 종목 직접 추천은 하지 않음. 분산 투자와 자산 배분 점검을 강조.
다듬은 글
during highly euphoric markets we must be extra diligent about where our money is being kept where it's being invested and where it can be dispersed interestingly with this being called the everything bubble it becomes a very difficult task there are certainly some assets that were undervalued for a long period of time and now they're charging up higher and higher but will it ever stop you came here for the truth so let me unveil that for you today we're gonna do something a little bit different and uh quite frankly you know we're looking here directly at the money gps this is just something i'm playing around with right now got the green screen we're gonna talk about a bubble and that is something of course that i cover very very regularly here on the channel i want to look at some data today i want to look at what bridgewater had to say i think it's important to not follow them just because it's bridgewater but when i see some good information i wanted to bring it to you as an individual investor you need to be aware of where your money is and where maybe it should be kept instead so let's get into it bridgewater co-cio sees fair amount of stock market in a bubble and that is quite different from what we've seen with many of the others who have said no that's really not the case yes you do see a few outliers but that really isn't the case today so he also said greg jensen that is said that shorting too early is the easiest place to die and that's absolutely true so just because it's a bubble just because you see the excess doesn't necessarily mean that you should be putting everything into this particular you know cash money markets and so on you have to do this right and you can see the excessive ipo supply can serve as the pin spax are going crazy you've seen it all now he was interviewed here on bloomberg and there's a lot a lot of good information so i definitely want to cover as much of it as i can so let's move through this really quickly bubbles are very strange phenomenon because the risk-for-word relationship is so interesting it almost seems that as an investor you have to participate in the bubble of course you're seeing that all over the place right because if you think it's a bubble too early you really miss the best returns from them how do you know when is the time to get out of an overvalued market so he's going to cover a few steps in here and i wanted to make sure i mentioned them all along through bridgewater's history we have been systematic so we've taken the kind of discussion we're taking the kind of discussion we're having now a very qualitative view of the world but translate it into ways that can measure it so you take something like a bubble right a class of qualitative thing what do you mean by a bubble how do you measure that it's a bubble is it enough to say prices are high relative to history or what's the actual measure and how reliable is it these are all things that we talk about here on the channel you have to do your own measurements you can't necessarily just say i'm gonna pick these stocks because i believe in them we should always be aware of what's happening fundamentally okay they have six gauges of a bubble and they use that all over the world and you can apply to kryptos you can apply to anything that you wanted to world stocks bonds anything our basic scorecard is and he doesn't cover all six it seems in here but he does touch on a few that i wanted to note are prices high relative to traditional measures and we use that through the warren buffett's you know the global or the the total market cap to gdp for instance that's one example of that and by the way stay tuned for videos related to specifically on certain indicators and how you can actually look into this yourself i think it's important to know those indicators really key and right here are prices discounting unsustainable conditions so as an example today there's something like 10 of stocks that are pricing in more than 20 percent revenue growth and margin expansion if you look at history 2 of stocks actually achieved that that's an extremely hard thing to do that's not counting the base effects from last year right no i'm talking about ongoing growth rates without the base effect it doesn't happen it's very very unlikely to happen and he goes on okay the third thing is new buyers entering the market how many new buyers are there how big of a part of the market are they that's the broad sentiment measures so you see the these are things that people should always be aware of and i think it is really key really intelligent to always be uh you know when you're looking at particular stocks when you're looking at your portfolio as a whole you want to be aware of all of these things every single thing may have an input because maybe you're going to change that allocation that you currently have to equities and you want to put it somewhere else maybe you're over a leverage maybe you want to pull back on that these are things that i think are so key he does some relation here between what we saw in 2000 and that was one quite excessive period of time there is no doubt if you have the time definitely check out the you know if you if you want to see the actual video or the interview itself you can do that i will have a link in the description as always your friend and mine jerome powell had a few things to say and to be honest with you it's just more of the same the u.s economy is doing better but it's not out of the woods yet the economy is reopening is bringing stronger economic activity and job creation wow it's fantastic everything is great but we still have to print money we still have to keep interest rates low this is a lot of reuters that they had brought this up and i just think it's funny that they're still reusing and recycling essentially the exact same narrative over and over again gas prices my friends this right here happens to be for california southern california five dollars a gallon and if you drive that bmw mercedes you're spending six dollars a gallon now the prices are so excessive so excessive today and it's not if you're driving a hummer we're talking about everybody even smaller sedans and more affordable vehicles the gas prices are accelerating dramatically and you know depends on the area that you're looking at but this happens to be southern california i've heard from my friends in europe oh my goodness the prices are high prices are high basically everywhere but if you look at certain areas you will see a disparity the point is more money coming out of your pocket lumber prices break new records adding heat to home prices sawmill owners poised to reap big profits while home buyers renters bear the brunt of rising wood costs i did a video about this recently talking about how maybe it's not necessarily in short supply maybe there's something else going on but regardless the end result is people have to pay more i believe i covered the data and it said something like 36 000 added to the cost of a new home and that's probably using the previous month's prices so you know who knows where we are at right now i mean it's crazy this is the chart you can see on the left hand side lumber futures price by year and the orange area that's 2015 to 2019 average and then we can compare that of course to 2020 2021.
take a guess which one is 2021. it is completely straight up high you're talking about as this shows here 1600 dollars per thousand board feet i mean the prices are accelerating to a point where you've got you know it's making it extremely difficult to do something that you would have been able to do before you know you wanted to build something for your backyard you want to build a deck you wanted to build a little thing you you know you may decide you know what forget it i'm not going to do that because the prices have gone so sky high okay they get into more of the details of course in here but i've covered it more recently so let's move on this article here out of bloomberg is talking about the reasons why this is happening of course talking about the supply chain problems for lumber they also mentioned other commodities have similar rules about exchange limits coming off it's common occurring whenever a futures contract is expiring but lumber is seeing extreme bump in prices while others are not because of the tightness in the market so they you know they give you some examples here i think it's just important to see how this is really being driven up in a short period of time unlike something we've ever seen before this is very unusual historically not that you know prices don't rise but to see it happen in this short period of time it is something that we'll be looking back on there's no doubt about it because the prices have only just begun and that brings me to the money gps insights i put myself bigger over here having a little fun today but what you can see from all the information i was talking about right now i think it's important to actually look at this and think for yourself what does this all mean i gotta pay more for gas i gotta pay more for lumber i gotta pay more for just about everything but there are available investments today if you wanted to you could take advantage of that means you could look at etfs that means you could be looking at futures contracts you could be understanding which companies are there to benefit from all the inflation and you could put your money in it so the reason you do this is simply because as the prices are rising as is becoming more unaffordable for everything you are keeping up with that by investing in it it's just like you know generally trying to keep up with inflation this is something else all together of course but if you want to keep up with inflation you hold on to assets because those assets appreciate and so on so we're playing the same game we're not necessarily trying to make a million dollars make a billion dollars but you're simply trying to keep up with this game as it rolls on really quickly wanted to go through these right here the total return performance of major global financial assets in april and you can go through take a guess what's number one copper this is so important to watch what happens with copper an industrial metal extremely important metal as it relates to industry and development and you could see you know that really tells you something about what's happening in the economy you can go down the list and you will see others oil is in there silver is in there and you look down brent is in there you come down to the smp 500 s p 500 has performed extremely well but in comparison you look at something like copper and so on and it's a different story you move on here you're seeing total return performance of major global financial assets here today in local currency and it's somewhat different all depends on which asset you're happening to look at which index you're looking at i just want to show you that as well and then we have this total return performance of major global financial assets year to date in u.s dollar and it just breaks that down here as well i always want to give you as much of the details as i possibly can just giving you a broad perspective on what's happening really quickly also wanted to show you this with all of that which has been happening with cryptocurrencies with the rise in all of these right now i'll show you this first this happens to be ethereum it accelerated dramatically in its relation to even the us dollar but also with bitcoin and it shot over 3200 dollars this is quite excessive considering where it was just a year ago now we go back the creator of this and you know i would definitely uh try to figure out the mind behind this this guy right here because it is just something else altogether but he's 27 years old started working on this at the age of 19 and now the world's youngest crypto billionaire it's amazing to see all the attention that is put onto these different projects and you know say what you want about them but ultimately we're seeing a lot of things that are changing i think a lot of the stuff that's around today probably won't be there at some point but certainly we need to be making progress with the current financial system and i'm i'm hopeful that there will be new things that come up that are created that displace the old way of doing things this right here last thing just to show you the affordability or more likely the unaffordability of certain areas when you look at housing prices housing prices around the world have become so excessive so extreme and you can see at the bottom there showing you the most extreme scenario hong kong vancouver sydney auckland and then our favorite here number five toronto these places are truly excessive in relation to the uh you know anything essentially but but according to incomes that's the big deal because if your income was keeping up you know you can make an excuse well my income has gone up this much and so on but that's not happening today and all of that which people have invested is right in their home and they're sinking more into that right now which uh you know hopefully the market continues to climb but you're just seeing this excessive excessive um everything today the the everything bubble and it's just non-stop so i really am concerned about what we're seeing the excesses taken with basically with no breather along the way so watch out where your money is invested keep a close eye on it really it is something that people are just taking for granted and i think that if you're diversified hopefully you'll do better than the majority hit the like button if you want to support this channel got to give that thumbs up you have to be getting on the insiders list there there will be a link in the description uh at the website themoneygps.com and you've got to also check out the free absolutely free e-course to learn about e-commerce the amazon gps.com if you want to learn about the financial system everything you need to know right here in these two books and if you haven't yet you absolutely want to check it out click click this video right here click it and you're gonna see some good info take care
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