저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 주식시장 과열과 정부 재정 부양의 한계를 경고하며, 농지가 세계에서 가장 저평가된 자산이라는 주장을 제시한다. 제프리 건드락 웨비나 요약: 그는 주식시장이 고평가되어 10~15% 이상 조정이 올 수 있다고 봤다(구체적 기간 언급 없음). 가장 저렴한 자산으로 농지를 꼽았다. 농지 관련: 농업은 기술주 대비 밸류에이션이 크게 낮고 역사적으로도 하락했다고 주장. 빌 게이츠의 농지 매입을 근거로 제시. 시장 과열 지표: 기술 섹터 비중이 GDP 고용 대비 S&P500에서 과도하게 큼(기술 2% 고용 vs 38% S&P500). 나스닥100의 S&P500 대비 상대강도가 닷컴 버블을 넘어섬. 정부 부양과 재정: 2020년 부양 규모 6.1조 달러 vs 금융위기 시 1.8조 달러. 개인소득 중 정부이전지출 비중 27%(2020년 피크 31%). 미국 재정적자 GDP 대비 16%로 역대급. 인플레이션·경기: 근원 CPI 1.4%로 디플레 우려, 연준이 인플레이션 유도 중이라고 해석. 재택근무 확산(BP 25,000명 주 2일)이 도심 상권에 부담이라고 언급. 투자 심리 지표: 개인 투자자의 부양금 주식투자 비율, 옵션 거래량 급증, BofA 펀드매니저 설문에서 주식 비중 확대 응답 증가, 현금 비중 순응답 등으로 과열 판단. 출연자 전망: 시장이 과열 상태이며 조정 가능성이 크다는 비관적 입장. 다만 구체적 가격 목표와 기간은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
there comes a time when we must address reality we surely can live in fantasy land on occasion people do it every day by tuning into their televisions they can escape reality for a brief period however we must come back down to earth or face the consequences the future might be a bunch of people living under a virtual reality headset but for those who want some level of control in their lives we should probably be paying attention look at what's been happening recently i'll give you an update on what jeffrey goonlock's recent webcast had to say give you the breakdown the charts everything that was as far as i'm concerned important and we can look at several indicators i also want to talk about real estate i've got a lot to cover and usually you've seen it i talked too long but i'll try my best to keep this concise let's go gunblock does expect the stock market to decline quote i would think it would be much more than 10 or 15 percent i don't know if it would be more than 80 so we don't know exactly what's going to happen here and i think it needs to be taken into context entirely but essentially he does believe that the market is overvalued so a correction here is overdue and if you look at the stats i bring to you today it puts that into perspective i don't necessarily agree with anybody and what they say i do not share my opinions here i get a lot of hate hundreds of comments yesterday telling me off hundreds of comments that was unbelievable usually it's you know 50 or less per day but i actually got hundreds of them if i bring you information i don't necessarily agree with what i'm reading if i'm talking about jerome powell and his actions i don't necessarily agree with what jerome powell is saying but i bring it to you because that's the information that i think you should know what you do with that information it's up to you now you have a bunch of sick psychopaths out there that talk you know they go to channels i guess and they just spew out hateful comments i think that's crazy to me but anyway let's get on with it right at the end of the podcast he said something very important and if you saw the title you know that i'm hinting towards this right here ends the webcast saying that the farm farmland is the cheapest asset in the world and you look around i mean the prices are depressed uh you know you look at this over a long period of time you compare let's say technology to agriculture we can do without netflix and facebook and all these things we can't do without food okay and you just see the valuation the difference is just shocking now agriculture has risen significantly but if you were to zoom out and look at where it has been it's just down significantly now that is changing certainly but i just think that it's important to look at farmland specifically look at what mr gates is doing and you could see he's buying it all up now maybe he knows something that we don't maybe he wants some control not allowed to get into the details of that of course but i think you should research if you don't know already i did bring it up on a previous video i do think it is uh worth worth taking a look at i'll say that i'm going to go through several charts and then i'm going to break that up by showing you what's happening with real estate then we'll go back into some charts i don't want anybody to fall asleep more than they already do okay so right here you can see the sector share of gdp employment s p 500 okay so in this column here we are looking at the third quarter of 2020 nominal gdp right here you could see the november 2020 employment and then right here we get december 2020 s p 500 and essentially what i note from this is that when you compare what the smp makeup is to you know and you compare that to the actual employment look at this i mean technology two percent compare that with the s p 500 it's 38 38 big difference but look at health care for instance 14 here 13 percent here and you can go through that it just gives you an idea of what's happening in the economy side and then look at what's going on with the stock market very different this is what i say when we have speculation speculation big big change now you pull that back 40 years things were not so out of whack but people would say oh well this is there for this time is that look there's always new technologies if you go back 40 years there were certain things that were so futuristic nobody had predicted that they could exist 20 years 30 years before that there's always something new what we have today is going to seem like a joke 30 40 years from now so but people are just gonna keep saying the same thing whatever makes them feel good that's what they believe look i'm just bringing you the data stimulus after the global financial crisis versus what we saw right now i mean it is not even close total 1.8 trillion dollars versus 6.1 trillion dollars it's ridiculous but of course this is what has to happen because they want to destroy the currency and the more money that they're able to put out there that means more control that they have this is what the government is designed for they want more and more control over the few and i think it works if you look at the breakdown of where the money actually goes you know you see these big numbers oh it's 1.9 trillion dollars that's fantastic you're gonna have that divvied out in those the paychecks so the checks are going out to people and it's going to help assistance of health care oh wow fantastic but you actually look you you take it deeper and deeper and you try to get as deep as you can and you realize wait a minute all of the things that the average person have they're going to be left with the exact same thing at the end of all of this you get a couple crumbs if you're lucky but the systems the overlords that are all in control of everything they got more funding that's the way this works it's always being used against the people i brought this up i wanted to show it to you again because i believe it is very important and you could see in the webcast he brought it up here just making note of it the percentage of personal income made up by government transfer assistance payments all right right now today 27 think about how out of whack that is all of the income right now in the us 27 of that is generated from the government that is to me to me shocking now there are spikes hey happens it happens right but you see over time more and more of that personal income is made up from the government go back to at the beginning of this chart here 1960 it is 5.87 it peaked out when we had you know in in 2020 there at 31.
okay now it's come down to 27 but it's still nowhere absolutely nowhere even if you go down where it was in 2019 it's still triple of where it was decades ago you need a real economy stimulus and quantitative easing is completely unsustainable it's like holding a stick of dynamite as long as the wick is going the wick is lit it's coming down you don't need to worry nothing to worry about well i mean things could happen of course but the you know the analogy here you can hold on to that dynamite and everything's all good but eventually that wick runs out and you're left in pieces u.s budget deficit watch all right right now 16 this is showing you the u.s treasury federal budget deficit or surplus as a percentage of the nominal gdp 16 16 never seen anything like this before going this chart shows you all the way back from the 70s and it is shocking to say the least how bad things have become and there is no plan on turning it around nasdaq 100 relative to the s p 500 it had exceeded what we saw during the dot-com boom and bust then you've got the u.s core cpi year over year at 1.4 they're having trouble everybody they're having trouble creating inflation so they're gonna do their best to create some inflation today i keep seeing the comments about oh well food is included in the cpi shut your mouth but you gotta understand what metrics they are actually using and realize they tell you one thing and they use a different metric on the other side all right make just that we have to be very clear about what they tell us and then what they're actually looking at it's so important okay we'll go back to the charts in just a second but let's look at these bp to tell 25 000 office staff to work from home two days a week now that's a lot of people that are suddenly not driving their cars less gasoline required they are not going to out for lunch let's say they're not using the same shops that are around there maybe they were going in on their lunch break and they're buying a little thing maybe a shirt because they're at the office more often they need more clothing they need new shoes they need you know anything whatever that might be they're not doing that maybe they're not going to the gym anymore because now they work out at home they are using facilities in their own house they're not buying what they used to previously they're doing everything in their home at least more often that puts additional pressure on the businesses that are in the core areas and for the most part i am seeing this as a trend and it doesn't you know you look anywhere it doesn't have to be the united states you pretty much look everywhere major cities around the world the same thing is happening all right back to the chart gps disposition of u.s personal income january 21 you can see the percentage growth on the first one here is the personal income then we have wages and salaries and then we have government transfer payments the only point i'm trying to make right here is that the government is providing the vast majority of all that growth that's coming in today i showed you that chart earlier on and of course you can see what's been happening but the growth is coming from the government no not people people aren't making more money than they were before in fact a lot of people that are employed today are getting paid less than what they were previously why because their employer said i'll take you back on i just can't pay you what i was paying you before and the people say well i need a job so sure i'll take that did they necessarily get their wages back up to where it was before some cases yes some cases no stimulus payments widely reported being used for investing in stocks proportion of respondents invested in the stock market using government stimulus checks you can just see it broken down by age i think it's just crazy overall to see how bad things are today take a look at the option activity by security type average daily volume options volume is surging this is basically from the beginning of 2019 up until today and it's just getting crazy right now from 2020 into 2021 it's been getting crazy people don't know what the heck they're doing but hey why not right net percentage uh this is coming from the fund manager survey of bank of america say that they are overweight equities this continues to grow you look at the lighter colored bars and that's the actual fund manager survey net percentage say they're overweight on global equities and then the blue line being global equities themselves i just showed you this because it just gives you an idea of the you know institutional investor not necessarily the retail investor because if you want to check out what they have to say i mean just go to the reddit boards and you get a pretty good idea of what people are interested in net percentages say that they are overweight on cash i mean nobody can we can we say that because that's the case right now today and you look at the all-time high in investors taking higher than normal risk and that is truly right now an excessive level i mean compared to normal where the the norm quote-unquote normal levels are already excessive today we've gone far beyond that that's all for this video if you found that informative hit that thumbs up button if you hate me if you hate my face and you made it this far into the video i want to congratulate you and i want you to support me as well by giving me a thumbs down if you want to learn about e-commerce you can do so at any of the courses out there there are a thousand dollars two thousand dollars available to anybody to check out or you can find mine it's available for free at the amazon gps.com if you want to learn about the financial system you could do so at the link in the description bring you over to the two books that i've got that i wrote that break down everything so simply and easily anybody can understand it but there's so much detail at the same time so check them out at the link if you're interested have you seen this video this is about michael bury and what he had to say and i think it's important just to see that final warning message that he gave out and we'll see how it all plays out
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